Jimmy's Punt: Staked 264.9pts | Returned 277.9pts | P/L +13.0pts | ROI 4%
Football betting tips: Saturday
Saturday 12:30
0.5pt Leeds to win from behind vs QPR at 10/1 (BetVictor)
0.5pt Jimmy Dunne to score anytime in QPR vs Leeds at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Ronnie Edwards to score anytime in QPR vs Leeds at 40/1 (Sky Bet)
2pts Ronnie Edwards to have 1+ shots at 13/8 (bet365)
0.5pt Ronnie Edwards to have 2+ shots at 8/1 (bet365)
Saturday 15:00
4pts Nottingham Forest to beat Ipswich at evens (General)
1pt Jobe Bellingham to be carded in Coventry vs Sunderland at 4/1 (bet365)
2pts Reading draw no bet vs Stevenage at 3/4 (William Hill)
The football season is turning towards the home straight (racing pun) and I like this time of the campaign.
Title charges, promotion pushes, relegation and oh boy the play-offs. All wonderful spectacles, dripping in drama and narrative but you know what else I love: the teams with nothing to play for.
"We're not going up, we’re not going down, we’re [insert team name] and we don't give a…”
There’s already a smattering of EFL sides rocking up to the beach, sandals and sun cream at the ready, and with them comes betting opportunities left, right and centre.
I'm excited for the next few months.
QPR vs Leeds
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: Sky Sports Football
- Home 11/2 | Draw 16/5 | Away 4/9
It has been a topsy-turvy few weeks at the top end of the Championship.
Since beating Sheffield United at Bramall Lane, LEEDS took one point from the following two games whilst the Blades took maximum.
Daniel Farke’s side's 2-0 victory over Millwall in midweek settled jangling nerves, and that three points coupled with Sheffield United dropped points to Bristol City, saw Leeds regain a two lead at the top of the division.
Leeds head to Loftus Road at lunchtime on Saturday and it is very plausible the Championship leaders could have a five point cushion come Sunday evening with the clichéd small matter of a Steel City Derby on Sunday.
I don’t think the trip to QPR will be plain sailing though, not with the Hoops recent home form.
QPR have won seven of their last nine league games on home soil and Leeds have dropped points in half of their last six on the road.
Leeds only conceded 0.62 goals per game in that time but have conceded the first goal in three of their last five games which leads me to the very punty selection of the visitors TO WIN FROM BEHIND at 10/1.
The thinking being this game will be a microcosm of their season; setbacks but ultimately Leeds showing their class.
Farke’s side dominates possession in such a relentless fashion, even if they do fall behind they inevitably wear down the opposition.
I also want to get QPR’s defenders onside here.
Again, Leeds haven't conceded many goals but 30% have come from set pieces, which includes seven of the last 15 in the league.
Illan Meslier is the issue, he doesn’t exactly command his area and it could be a weakness opposition actively try to exploit.
Danny Batth, Harry Darling, Daniel Furlong and Japhet Tanganga are defenders to profit.
Against Millwall on Wednesday, Tanganga and Jake Cooper had three shots between them, the Lions only had four shots in total, and all of which came from dead ball situations.
I’m covering both JIMMY DUNNE and RONNIE hotdogs EDWARDS TO SCORE ANYTIME.
- CLICK HERE to back Jimmy Dunne to score anytime with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Ronnie Edwards to score anytime with Sky Bet
Dunne is his side's second top goalscorer (5) and Edwards has netted once in 11 starts since joining in January.
Edwards is also averaging 0.9 shots per 90, having 1+ SHOTS on nine occasions and 2+ SHOTS twice and both bets appeal on Saturday.
Lots of bets for one game but all we need to happen to win them all is Dunne opens the scoring, Edwards doubles the home advantage with his second bite of the cherry then Leeds net three times in the second half to win the game.
Simple.
Ipswich vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 13/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 19/20
"Everyman and their dog should be on Forest this weekend."
Lily, my German Shepherd, was down the bookies first thing this morning piling into Nuno Espirito Santo's side but she is a much shrewder operator than me.
Jake thinks it's a good bet because of NOTTINGHAM FOREST’s record against bottom half side teams, they’ve not lost any of their 12 games and have won 11 which includes taking maximum points in all six away trips.
It’s an encouraging record and their opponents' form is also promising (for us).
Ipswich have only won three Premier League games all season and I don’t think it is a coincidence two of those games were on the road (Tottenham and Wolves) and the other was against traditional big six opposition Chelsea.
Kieran McKenna is more pragmatic away from home, he was in the Championship last season and has been this season.
In general, at home the Tractor Boys try to go toe-to-toe and often get swept aside.
Since the Chelsea win, Ipswich have played four home league games lost them all and conceded 14 goals.
The visitors are trending towards odds on TO WIN and are worth a punt at current quotes of even money.
Coventry vs Sunderland
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 8/5 | Draw 9/4 | Away 13/8
JOBE BELLINGHAM’s Sunderland are away at Coventry this weekend which can only mean one thing: we’re backing him TO BE CARDED.
Bellingham has 10 cards this season (9Y 1R), the most in the Championship is 11 (Gus Hamer) for context, and all but one of his cards have come on the road.
If you had a point on Bellingham to be carded at odds of 4/1 (his price this weekend) every time he played away this season, you would be up +29pts this term.
Reading vs Stevenage
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 2/1 | Away 19/10
READING, in spite of everything, might just be a really good League One team.
It is a circus behind the scenes and it spills onto the pitch in terms of tennis balls and points deductions.
The Royals lost the highly regarded Ruben Selles mid-season and then top striker Sam Smith to Wrexham in January.
And yet, here they are in mid-March in 8th place, two points off the play-offs and unbeaten in nine league games (W4 D5).
Yep, the draws are a concern which is why backing them DRAW NO BET is the angle here.
Alex Revell has done a cracking job at Stevenage, the rookie manager inherited a one-dimensional squad punching well above their weight in the third tier and has steered them to safety with 10 games to spare.
It is still mathematically possible for Boro to be relegated but Sky Bet do not have them priced and the same firm has quoted 100/1 for them to finish in the top six.
So, with little to play for, away from home at a play-off chaser, siding with a home win with stakes returned if honours are shared certainly appeals.
Odds correct at 1300 GMT (14/03/25)
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