Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 335.75pts | Returned 342.38pts | P/L +6.63pts | ROI 2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Wednesday 19:30
1pt Ferdi Kadioglu to be carded in Aston Villa vs Brighton at 18/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pts Ismaila Sarr to score anytime in C Palace vs Burnley at 15/8 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Jorgen Strand Larsen to be carded in C Palace vs Burnley at 12/1 (bet365)
0.75pts Jorge Cuenca to be carded in Man City vs Fulham at 4/1 (bet365)
1.5pts Yerson Mosquera to be carded in N Forest vs Wolves at 2/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Elliot Anderson to be carded in N Forest vs Wolves at 9/2 (bet365)
Wednesday 20:15 - Sunderland vs Liverpool
0.5pt Omar Alderete to score anytime at 20/1 (Betway)
Thursday 20:00 - Brentford vs Arsenal
1pt Igor Thiago to score anytime at 9/4 (General)
Well, we have been going close, on the wrong side of some bad beats, but last weekend saw things go our way as we landed a healthy profit of +9.62pts.
It was a lovely bounce back from an agonising gameweek 24, and now means we are in the green heading into the midweek round of matches.
You may notice a few familiar selections among the staking plan, and that's quite simply because the bookmakers haven't reacted to the trends we are on at the moment, and when that's the case, we just have to grab our oar and row right back in.
Aston Villa vs Brighton
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
This feels like a big game for both teams. Aston Villa have stalled, winning just one of their last five league games, a run that has seen them fall nine points off the top and have their lead to fourth reduced to just three. Brighton meanwhile are winless in five and have won just one of their last 12 league games, with Fabian Hurzeler under increasing pressure.
I certainly lean towards Villa, with these games against opponents who have a go at them usually going Villa's way, but I want to back Seagulls right-back FERDI KADIOGLU TO BE CARDED at 18/5.
He hasn't been carded since early December but has four to his name this season, and this bet really is all about Villa's left-hand-side.
Get this, of the last seven right-backs to have faced Villa, five have been booked, with Emi Buendia, Morgan Rogers and Ollie Watkins all playing a part, and with how attack-minded Brighton are, we can expect Kadioglu to be isolated at times.
We've a good referee appointment too in Peter Bankes (4.12 per game), which enhances the chances of this bet, while frustration and desperation could also help us here.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 (09/02/26)
Crystal Palace vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Live odds, form and stats
Crystal Palace got a huge win at the weekend against rivals Brighton, ending a 12-match winless run in all competitions. They now have enough players fit to field a solid side with no-one playing out of position, and that makes them dangerous once again.
Having ISMAILA SARR back is massive for the Eagles, and he's worth backing TO SCORE ANYTIME here at 15/8 against a Burnley side who continue to be miserable - winless in 16.
Sarr is Palace's joint-leading scorer this season, and has scored in both of his last two games, while over the season has averaged 0.43 xG per 90 which ranks him second in that stat among attacking midfielders behind only Cole Palmer (0.59).
He's Palace's most likely scorer here, and is on penalties, while Burnley have conceded 30 goals in 12 away games.
As well as Sarr to score, we have to chance JORGEN STRAND LARSEN TO BE CARDED once again given he's a massive 12/1 here. The big Norwegian striker was extremely physical on his way to three fouls and a card against Brighton, and we should expect him to continue to put himself about as he has a point to prove.
It's a tentative selection given the fact Burnley don't draw a lot of cards, but it's worth chancing an overzealous Larsen at a whopping price after delivering at nearly half the price at the weekend.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 17:10 (09/02/26)
Manchester City vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 4
- Live odds, form and stats
Manchester City's win at Anfield was huge, keeping them within touching distance of leaders Arsenal. They have the advantage of playing before the Gunners this week and simply have to take advantage. They should, with Fulham struggling on the road this season, losing seven of 12.
I'm drawn towards cards again here with Paul Tierney the referee (3.69 cards per game), and at 4/1, we have to back JORGE CUENCA TO BE CARDED. The Spaniard has been booked in six of his last 10 outings, and has averaged 0.48 cards per 90 this season, making 4/1 simply massive value.
In the last five league games, Manchester City have seen four opposing centre-backs get carded, with a mix of Erling Haaland and Omar Marmoush causing major problems, and the fact Fulham won't sit deep here helps this bet too.
Marco Silva's side always take the game to their opponent, which does leave them exposed at the back, and could put Cuenca in plenty of precarious positions. Hopefully we are on the right Fulham centre-back this week after Cuenca was booked against Everton, and not Joachim Anderson.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 (09/02/26)
Nottingham Forest vs Wolves
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 6
- Live odds, form and stats
This is a massive game for Nottingham Forest, who were poor last Friday at Elland Road. Sean Dyche's side head into the midweek slate just three points above the relegation zone ahead of hosting the league's bottom side.
Wolves were beaten yet again last time out, though Rob Edwards threw a spanner in the works by starting the game in a 4-2-3-1 system, only to revert to a back five after 43 minutes when his side were already 3-0 down. Fair to say that experiment didn't work, and we shouldn't expect to see it tried again here.
That makes the Old Gold a difficult opponent for Forest, with Edwards' side conceding very few chances when in their favoured system, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get a result against a Forest side who don't create an awful lot - they've scored just 20 goals in Dyche's 17 league games.
We have a good referee appointment for this game - the best in the league in fact - with Tim Robinson the man in the middle. He's averaged 5.16 cards per game this season so we'll target player cards here where, yep, you guessed it, YERSON MOSQUERA TO BE CARDED is the headline.
The Colombian defender avoided a card last week despite making another two fouls, with his cards per 90 now down to 0.65. I say that in jest of course, with that figure simply outrageous, and given he has nine cards to his name, another sees a two-match suspension, which crucially would mean he's available for a home game against Aston Villa - Wolves' big rivalry in the top flight.
Factor in he was booked in the reverse after making three fouls, and he'll again be up against Igor Jesus who is an absolute handful, as well as the tricky Callum Hudson-Odoi and former Wolves man Morgan Gibbs-White, and I'll happily put him up at 2/1 again.
We'll also back ELLIOT ANDERSON TO BE CARDED at 9/2, with the Forest man booked four times in the league this season including in the reverse. Across all competitions Anderson has been carded seven times, and will be up against the lively Mateus Mane who has drawn 2.45 fouls per 90 since breaking into the Wolves XI.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 17:10 (09/02/26)
Sunderland vs Liverpool
- Kick-off: Wednesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Boy is this a big game for Liverpool. Given they head to the Stadium of Light, where Sunderland remain unbeaten this season, having won just one of their last seven league games and without their best player Dominik Szoboszlai, it is surprising to see the Reds priced at 3/4 to win. That's an easy swerve.
Instead, given Liverpool still look vulnerable from set-pieces and Sunderland are a dangerous dead-ball team, we'll throw a dart at a centre-back scorer.
Over the course of the season Arne Slot's side have conceded the second most set-piece goals (14) in the entire league, with a whopping 40% of the goals they've conceded this term coming from dead-ball situations. Interestingly, nine of those 14 have come in their 12 away games.
In their most recent five away games, the Reds have conceded three goals from set-pieces, allowing 0.50 xGA per game from such situations, while only Everton (35.7% of total xG) are more reliant on attacking set-pieces to create chances than Sunderland (34.7%).
Dan Ballard is the obvious candidate and the first port of call, but he's well found in the market at 8/1, which is a tad too short, especially as he will be the man Liverpool are hellbent on stopping. Instead, his fellow centre-back OMAR ALDERETE is preferred at more than double the price - 20/1 with Betway.
I'd also take the 16/1 with Coral and Ladbrokes, and even the 14/1 with BetVictor. The Paraguayan is a prolific shooter, firing an attempt in eight of his last 12 starts, including when registering three shots at Anfield the last time these sides met.
He has already scored this season, and 20/1 looks massive for him to bag his second of the campaign here against a defence that is vulnerable from set-pieces, while he also does occasionally shoot from distance, so you never know, he may fire in a rocket from 30-yards instead of a header from a corner.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 17:00 GMT (10/02/26)
Brentford vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Thursday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
League leaders Arsenal face a very tricky looking trip to Brentford on Thursday, with the Bees up in seventh and excellent at the Gtech.
Keith Andrews' side have won seven of 12 at home, scoring 23 goals, and will be a very tough game for the Gunners, especially as 'Set-piece FC' will likely be nullified.
Brentford have conceded the fewest goals from dead-balls in the league this season and the lowest xG per set-piece shot, so Arsenal are going to have to win this in open play which could be a struggle.
Given how good Brentford have been of late in beating Aston Villa and Newcastle, and the fact they've created an average of 2.11 xGF per game at home, I think they can cause problems for Arsenal, and the Premier League's second top scorer IGOR THIAGO looks a big price TO SCORE ANYTIME at 9/4.
The Brazilian has 17 goals to his name this season, with nine coming in his last 10 home games. He's averaging 0.59 xG per 90 this term, a figure only bettered by Erling Haaland, and is on penalties which is always a bonus when backing a goalscorer.
Arsenal may have kept three clean sheets in a row, but prior to that had shown they were vulnerable, conceding nine in their previous six.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 21:30 GMT (10/02/26)
Already advised
Tuesday 19:30
1.5pts Jaka Bijol 1+ total shot in Chelsea vs Leeds at 5/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Bijol to score anytime at 20/1 (Betway)
1.5pts Harrison Armstrong to win 2+ fouls in Everton vs Bournemouth at 6/5 (bet365)
1pt Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Everton vs Bournemouth at 9/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.75pts Archie Gray to be carded in Spurs vs Newcastle at 4/1 (Sky Bet)
Tuesday 20:15 - West Ham vs Man Utd
2pts Harry Maguire to win 1+ foul at evens (bet365)
1.5pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target at 6/5 (bet365)
Chelsea vs Leeds
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 4
- Live odds, form and stats
***Updated 10:00 GMT 10/09/26 after news of Pascal Struijk's absence
Both Chelsea and Leeds picked up big 3-1 wins last time out, putting the Blues fifth and keeping Leeds six points clear of the drop zone. The Whites beat won 3-1 in the reverse fixture, where Leeds' set-piece threat was a huge problem from Chelsea, scoring from a corner through JAKA BIJOL.
That could well be an avenue to success yet again for the Whites, and with Pascal Struijk ruled out for this game, Bijol should get the nod. Anyone who has already back Struijk will get their bet refunded as he won't be in the matchday squad.
Bijol is 5/4 to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT which appeals. He's taken a shot in three of his last five starts including at Anfield, and as mentioned, did find the net in the reverse, so we'll also chance him TO SCORE ANYTIME at a huge 20/1.
Leeds continue to rank fourth for both set-piece xG and set-piece goals in the league this term, while Chelsea continue to struggle defending them.
The Blues conceded yet again from a set-piece last weekend, the fourth in Liam Roseinor's seven games against English opponents, with Chelsea allowing 0.68 xG from dead-balls under their new manager.
Last weekend saw a high-volume centre-back shooter Yerson Mosquera fire off three attempts, before that Jean-Claire Todibo had a shot from close-range for West Ham, and the game before that saw Maxence Lacroix had two shots for Palace and his teammate Chris Richards find the net.
Bijol could be the latest to test Chelsea and looks overpriced should he start.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 10:00 (10/02/26)
Everton vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 5
- Live odds, form and stats
Everton's second half display at Fulham was excellent and extends their unbeaten run to five, with the win moving them up to eighth and just two points behind city rivals Liverpool. Bournemouth have found consistency too, also unbeaten in five, to move clear of trouble.
This should be an exciting game, and we'll start our selections by returning to ALEX SCOTT 2+ SHOTS, which is still available at a huge 9/5 despite this bet landing in all of his last five. He fired three shots last weekend, and 17 in the five-game sample.
Everton are a team who do concede plenty of shots, facing 14.9 shots per game over their last 11, which only enhances confidence in a repeat for Scott.
The other angle of focus is around Everton's in-form foul-drawer, no, not Jack Grealish or Iliman Ndiaye, but HARRISON ARMSTRONG. The young Englishman has picked up the Grealish-mantle and has been winning a ridiculous number of fouls.
At Fulham he was fouled five times in 69 minutes, at Brighton it was four in 80, and in total since returning to the Toffees from his loan spell he's won 16 fouls at an average of 2.96 per 90. Up against a foul-heavy Bournemouth team, who have committed the second-most fouls in the league (302 - 12.1 per game), we'll back ARMSTRONG TO WIN 2+ FOULS at 6/5.
Score prediction: Everton 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Odds correct at 13:25 (09/02/26)
Tottenham vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 19:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 3
- Live odds, form and stats
Are Tottenham in a relegation battle? After last weekend they are just six points above the dotted line and sit third bottom of the 15-game form table with just 12 points from a possible 45. Yikes.
Performances and results have been even worst at home too. Across the whole season, only Wolves (5) have collected fewer points in front of their own fans than Thomas Frank's men (10), who have won just two of 12 against Burnley on the opening day of the season and Frank's former side Brentford.
Newcastle are also out of form, losing three straight as they travel to the capital, the Magpies now down in 12th. Eddie Howe's men have won just two of their 12 away games, so while it's hard to want to get Spurs on-side, it's equally as tough to trust Newcastle, especially as 6/4 favourites on the road.
Cards could be the way in, despite my initial hesitation with the appointment of Anthony Taylor, who only brandished two yellows last week. We'll back ARCHIE GRAY TO BE CARDED at 4/1 here, with it highly likely the young Englishman will again be deployed as a right-back.
Gray has been carded four times in the league this season at an average of 0.43 per 90 which immediately makes this bet value, and I know all of those have come with him in central midfield, but he'll be properly tested here.
Harvey Barnes and Lewis Hall combine for 2.64 fouls won per 90 down Newcastle's left and will be getting fed at every opportunity you would imagine, given how strong they are as a duo.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 13:25 (09/02/26)
West Ham vs Manchester United
- Kick-off: Tuesday, 20:15 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
West Ham were completely written off after losing at home to Nottingham Forest, a result that left them eight points from safety and winless in 10. Since then, the Hammers have been phenomenal, winning three of their four and losing only at Chelsea in a game they were 2-0 up in.
The gap to safety is now just three points, with Nuno Espirito Santo looking to chase down his former employers. What a story that would be by the way. Nuno getting sacked by Forest after seven games, only to overtake them with his new side and consign them to relegation.
Manchester United are red-hot too heading into this clash, so much so that that lad with the afro may have to actually shave his head. It's four straight wins for Michael Carrick, one more and the afro goes, with United fourth and five points clear of sixth.
This should be a cracking game, and we are backing one of our friends from last week, CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE, once again. He's priced at 6/5 to have 1+ SHOT ON TARGET so we will rinse and repeat here after he delivered last weekend.
The Dutch winger also scored for us at Turf Moor, meaning he's found the net in five straight games, landing a shot on target in all of his last six, so the price available for another looks way too big. He's 11/2 to score anytime for those wanting to go back to the well.
I don't want to be boring and tip the same things all the time, but when the prices remain backable we have to continue to hammer the edge we have, with it clear the bookies haven't cottoned onto certain trends.
So, HARRY MAGUIRE TO WIN 1+ FOUL, how you doin'? It's won for us the last two weeks at evens and 4/5 with the United defender facing physical and fouling forwards in Raul Jimenez and Dominic Solanke, and we're getting evens again here as he faces Valentin Castellanos.
Since joining the Hammers on loan, Castellanos has committed an average of 2.20 fouls per 90, with an opposing centre-back getting fouled in four of his five league games. He looks another ideal opponent for Maguire in this bet, with 'Slabhead' getting fouled in all of his four starts in a back-four under Carrick.
Score prediction: West Ham 1-2 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 13:25 (09/02/26)
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