Jake's Predictions 25/26: Staked 314.75pts | Returned 311.76pts | P/L -2.99pts | ROI -0.9%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Friday 20:00 - Leeds vs N Forest
1pt Ethan Ampadu to be carded at 3/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Pascal Struijk to score anytime at 10/1 (Betway)
Saturday 12:30 - Man Utd vs Tottenham
2pts Harry Maguire to win 1+ foul at 4/5 (Sky Bet, bet365)
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assist at 3/1 (Boylesports)
Saturday 15:00
1pt Trai Hume to be carded in Arsenal vs Sunderland at 10/3 (Sky Bet, Paddy Power, Betfair)
1pt Adam Smith to be carded in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Alex Scott 2+ total shots in Bournemouth vs Aston Villa at 13/5 (BetVictor)
2pts Crysencio Summerville 1+ shot on target in Burnley vs West Ham at 19/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.75pts Summerville to score anytime in Burnley vs West Ham at 19/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Joachim Anderson to be carded in Fulham vs Everton at 4/1 (General)
2pts Yerson Mosquera 1+ total shot in Wolves vs Chelsea at 7/5 (Betway)
1pts Yerson Mosquera to be carded in Wolves vs Chelsea at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pt Yerson Mosquera to score anytime in Wolves vs Chelsea at 16/1 (Sky Bet)
Saturday 17:30 and Sunday's games to follow...
A hugely frustrating weekend last time out. We finished -1.75pts down but had a number of bad beats. The early kick-off saw Gabriel Gudmundsson fit enough to start at left-wing-back over our man James Justin, with the logic behind the bet selection winning as the Swede was carded...
Later in the day Jean Paul van Hecke committed three fouls and avoided a card for Brighton, Yerson Mosquera hit the post from a corner at 14/1, Marc Cucurella was benched for Chelsea's game against West Ham, came on at half-time, committed two fouls and avoided a card.
Oh, and Jarrod Bowen's sub Adama Traore got booked. A winner for those with super sub at 8/1, but we have to settle without that promo on Sporting Life so that was a loser too.
Thankfully Bruno Fernandes assisted again, Mosquera got booked again and Harry Maguire got fouled to make it only a small loss, and all the above does at least give confidence we are on the right lines with selections.
I really like the slate this week too, so hopefully we get the rub of the green this week.
Leeds vs Nottingham Forest
- Kick-off: Friday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Premier League
- Live odds, form and stats
We have a tasty Friday night clash in the Premier League with Leeds taking on Nottingham Forest. This feels big in the relegation shake up with the pair level on points and six points above 18th-placed West Ham, who travel to Burnley on Saturday. It's a proper six-pointer.
I'll happily swerve the 1X2 markets, and head to the card markets given Peter Bankes (4.2 cards pg) is overseeing proceedings, with Leeds captain ETHAN AMPADU nicely priced TO BE CARDED at 3/1.
The Welshman has seven cards to his name this season at an average of 0.34 per 90 which makes the price on offer excellent value before factoring in the magnitude of the game and the opponents he'll be facing.
Ampadu will be sandwiched between Nottingham Forest's Igor Jesus and Morgan Gibbs-White, two physical players who are excellent at drawing fouls. He committed three fouls in the reverse game and somehow avoided a card, but he may not be so lucky here with a card-happy ref.
We'll also back PASCAL STRUIJK TO SCORE ANYTIME at 10/1, with the Dutchman knocking on the door of late. Struijk has averaged 1.04 shots and 0.11 xG per 90 this season, but has been especially dangerous at Elland Road.
He's registered at least one shot in nine of his 11 home games this season, averaging 0.14 xG per 90 in front of his own fans.
Leeds have scored the second-most goals from dead-balls this season and racked up the fourth most xG (10.59), and against a Forest side who have conceded the sixth most goals and xG from set-pieces, more recently allowing 0.53 xGA from dead-balls in their last six, Struijk could strike.
Score prediction: Leeds 2-1 Nottingham Forest (Sky Bet odds: 15/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Manchester United vs Tottenham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
Michael Carrick has the Midas Touch. Three games, three wins for Manchester United since he was appointed interim manager, and in all three games his substitutes have scored winning goals. Maybe he is a genius.
It's a rinse and repeat job for us, with BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSIST simply must-back material at 3/1 with Boylesports. He's as short as 11/8 in places.
I won't go over old ground too much, but in short, after supplying a brace of assists last week Bruno has registered an assist in seven of his last eight games, and leads the league for assists this season with 12.
Tottenham have conceded multiple goals in four of their last five league games, so there's a great chance Fernandes gets yet another assist this weekend, especially with the firepower he has around him.
We'll also row back in on HARRY MAGUIRE TO WIN 1+ FOUL at 4/5. Maguire was fouled last week meaning this bet has been a winner in all three of his league games since returning, all in a back four.
On Saturday he will (hopefully) be up against Dominic Solanke, who along with looking extremely sharp since coming back from injury, is looking more physical than ever. In his two league starts he's committed five fouls, so like with Raul Jimenez last week, this looks like a great match-up for the selection.
Score prediction: Manchester United 3-2 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 14/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Arsenal vs Sunderland
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
For readers who digested the outright edition of this column, Arsenal's success in midweek was huge as we are on them to win the Carabao Cup at 8/1, with profit already secured on that one. They will likely follow that with a routine home win, but Sunderland's TRAI HUME looks a big price TO BE CARDED.
He's 10/3 on Saturday and that looks massive. Sam Barrott is the referee, and he's averaged 3.86 cards per game this season, but this bet is all about Hume's steep increase in fouls and cards.
Across his first 15 starts in the Premier League, Hume committed just seven fouls and collected two yellow cards at per 90 averages of 0.47 and 0.14 respectively.
In his last eight starts he's collected five cards (0.64 per 90) and committed 14 fouls (1.79 per 90), which is a remarkable upturn. On Saturday he'll be up against Leandro Trossard (1.68 fouls won per 90) and/or Gabriel Martinelli (1.55), as well as overlapping full-backs Riccardo Calafiori (0.63) and Pierro Hincapie (0.53), meaning he'll have his hands full.
Score prediction: Arsenal 2-0 Sunderland (Sky Bet odds: 9/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Bournemouth vs Aston Villa
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Recent meetings between Bournemouth and Aston Villa have seen Unai Emery's men have the edge, winning three of an unbeaten five, but all five have been card-crazy.
The last five head-to-heads have delivered an eye-watering 36 cards at an average of 7.2 per game... This edition will be refereed by Anthony Taylor, who's love for no-card-games has well and truly vanished.
Since his last no carder, Taylor has overseen 17 games and averaged 4.5 cards per game, including las weekend when showing five yellows and a red as Chelsea beat West Ham. He looks an ideal appointment for a card-laden game.
We'll back with ADAM SMITH, who is 11/4 TO BE CARDED. Smith has only been booked twice this season in limited minutes, but picked up seven cards last season (0.39 per 90) and has an incredible record of getting booked against Aston Villa.
In fact, whoever has played right-back for the Cherries in the last four meetings has been carded, with Smith responsible for three of those. It makes sense really, with Bournemouth wanting to press high, it leaves a lot of space for Villa's ball carriers - mainly Morgan Rogers - to drive into and ultimately get felled.
Another trend that looks worth backing is ALEX SCOTT's recent shooting splurge, with 2+ TOTAL SHOTS dangled at an appealing 13/5. Over the season Scott has averaged 1.38 shots per 90, but recently he's delivered on this bet in four straight games, taking 14 in total.
It's resulted in him scoring twice, and against a Villa team who do concede plenty of shots (14.2 per away game), trigger-happy Scott can fire again.
Score prediction: Bournemouth 1-2 Aston Villa (Sky Bet odds: 8/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Burnley vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
This is must-win for West Ham. Well, it is for both teams given Burnley's plight, starting the week 11 points from safety, so we could see an open game here with plenty of goals.
We are going to focus on Hammers winger CRYSENCIO SUMMERVILLE, who has been in great form of late. The Dutchman has scored in all of his last four, taking advantage of West Ham's more attack-minded approach.
He's averaged 0.30 xG per 90 in that time, highlighting that he's getting good chances, so against a poor defensive team in Burnley, we'll back him to continue his scoring run, with the 19/4 about him TO SCORE ANYTIME a very good price.
We'll also back him 1+ SHOT ON TARGET to bigger stakes at a huge price of 19/20, with this bet landing in all of his last five starts. I like this bet even more as the team Summerville is playing against just so happens to be the side who have shipped the most shots (407, 17.0 per game) and shots on target (145, 6.0 per game) in the league.
Score prediction: Burnley 1-3 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Fulham vs Everton
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Two sides on the fringes of the European race, Fulham and Everton square off at Craven Cottage, and I rate both highly so will stay clear of the main markets. I'm going to test last week's Everton logic and again back the opposing right-centre-back TO BE CARDED.
It was Jean Paul van Hecke last week who managed to avoid a card despite making three fouls, and I'm hoping JOACHIM ANDERSON isn't as lucky, so we'll back him at 4/1.
The premise to the bet is that Iliman Ndiaye and Thierno Barry are almost playing as a front two, and both are handfuls, with Ndiaye in particular buzzing off the Everton left.
Anderson has five cards this season with four of those coming in his last eight, and with a fouls per 90 average of 1.07, he could add another card to his tally here, especially with Stuart Attwell (4.60 cards per game) overseeing proceedings.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
Wolves vs Chelsea
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
YERSON MOSQUERA is simply all-action. He is box-office. After this season, the Wolves defender he may need to change his middle name to 'CARD-MACHINE', with the Colombian collecting nine yellows in just 13 starts this season at an average of 0.71 per 90... Yep, you guessed it, we are backing him TO BE CARDED yet again.
I mean, when 5/2 is being dangled, it just has to be backed. I was expecting 6/4 for this clash with Chelsea which would probably still be value. Another card will mean a two-game suspension all the way up to the 32nd gameweek, so why put that off? Get it over and done with now Yerson.
He'll be tasked with helping defend Joao Pedro (1.82 fouls won per 90) and/or Liam Delap (1.83), as well as potentially former Wolves man Pedro Neto, Alejandro Garnacho, Cole Palmer or Jamie Gittens, either way, it's hard to see him making it through this 90 minutes without collecting a card.
We'll also back MOSQUERA 1+ TOTAL SHOT at 7/5, with evens (bet365) fine too. The card-machine has had a shot in five of his last six matches, taking 11 in that time, hitting the post last week.
Chelsea continue to have issues defending set-pieces, and have conceded the second-most xG in the league from dead-balls this season (12.7). What's more, since Liam Rosenior has taken over, the Blues have conceded three set-piece goals in six matches against English sides, allowing 0.65 xG per game, so this looks a prime opportunity for Mosquera to get another shot off.
At 16/1, we'll also back MOSQUERA TO SCORE ANYTIME given how close he's been coming and how many chances he's been getting. I was close to leaving it out this week, but I'd be sick if this was the week he got off the mark.
The Mosquera goal-card double is 50/1 for those who fancy a realllly big swing.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (05/02/26)
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