Football betting tips: Premier League
Monday 20:00 - Brighton vs Bournemouth
1pt David Brooks to score anytime at 19/4 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
I usually don't like the FA Cup, but it was a welcome break last weekend.
The Premier League schedule was beyond hectic over the festive period with five gameweeks, so a break from that grind and this column was much needed.
We are back in business this weekend, starting with the Manchester derby and ending with Monday Night Football on the south coast.
Brighton vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off: Monday, 20:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Goals should very much be on the agenda when Brighton and Bournemouth meet on Monday. The Cherries' away games have been ridiculous for goals this season, averaging a whopping 4.7 per game, and it wouldn't be a surprise to see another huge haul here.
Joe has covered BTTS and Overs, Jimmy has covered Brighton's likely scorer in Danny Welbeck, so we'll approach this from the Bournemouth side of things, and with Antoine Semenyo departing, there is a void for someone to step into and contribute scoring wise.
I think that could be DAVID BROOKS, and he is nicely priced TO SCORE ANYTIME at the Amex. The Welshman has only two goals to his name this season across all competitions, but boy has he been knocking on the door all campaign, and that door is ajar now with both of his goals coming in his last three starts.
The signs are there that the tide could turn even more in his favour, with Brooks the joint-biggest underperformer of xG in the league this season alongside Jean-Philippe Mateta, with the pair scoring 3.3 fewer goals than would be expected.
In the league Brooks has an xG per 90 of 0.42 which is a fantastic figure for a winger or attacking midfielder, and should he continue at that rate, it would be hugely surprising not to see his name on the scoresheet plenty of times between now and the end of the season, especially with how attack-minded the Cherries are.
Of Bournemouth players this season, only Eli Kroupi (0.56 xG per 90) has a better process than Brooks, with the pair both ahead of starting striker Evanilson (0.34) and ex-Cherry Semenyo (0.33), but it has to be said that Kroupi has scored seven times from just 18 shots, and that type of conversion rate (39%) isn't usually sustainable.
At the prices, Brooks is worth a swing, and let's hope he's has taken his shooting boots back down south with him after scoring a stunner at St. James' Park last week.
I wouldn't put anyone off backing him to register an assist here too at 11/2 (Coral, bet365) given he leads his team for expected assists (xA) per 90 this season as well as sitting second for xG per 90, or for him to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power) with him having collected six yellows at an average of 0.57 per 90 this season. The all-action Brooks treble is 85/1 with bet365.
Score prediction: Brighton 2-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct at 20:00 (16/01/26)
Already advised
Saturday 12:30 - Man Utd vs Man City
1pt Bruno Fernandes 1+ assists at 9/2 (Boylesports)
Saturday 15:00
1.5pts Igor Thiago to score anytime in Chelsea vs Brentford at 7/4 (General)
1pt Jorge Cuenca to be carded in Leeds vs Fulham at 4/1 (bet365)
0.5pt Omar Alderete to score anytime in Sunderland vs Palace at 14/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Cristian Romero to be carded in Spurs vs West Ham at 3/1 (bet365)
0.25pt Cristian Romero to be sent off in Spurs vs West Ham at 40/1 (bet365)
Saturday 17:30 - N Forest vs Arsenal
2.5pts Igor Jesus 1+ foul committed and Gabriel 1+ foul won at evens (bet365)
Sunday 14:00 - Wolves vs Newcastle
1pt Jhon Arias to be carded at 4/1 (Sky Bet, Betfair, Paddy Power)
Sunday 16:30 - Aston Villa vs Everton
1pt Lemare Bogarde to be carded at 9/2 (bet365)
Manchester United vs Manchester City
- Kick-off: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Yet another new face is in the Manchester United dugout, with Michael Carrick named as head coach until the end of the season. What he will bring remains to be seen, but United face a tough task in his first game in charge, taking on a rampant Manchester City.
The Red Devils welcome back top scorer Bryan Mbeumo and Amad Diallo from AFCON, as well as Harry Maguire, to bolster their squad. While United have struggled defensively, they have consistently looked dangerous in attack given their personnel, and they can cause problems for City at Old Trafford.
United have scored 18 times in 10 home league games and averaged 2.05 xGF per game, so against a City team without Ruben Dias, Josko Gvardiol and John Stones I fancy them to score at least once or maybe even twice, in which case BRUNO FERNANDES 1+ ASSISTS rates a cracking bet at 9/2.
The Portuguese midfielder leads the league for assists this season, and has registered nine in his last 12 starts with this bet landing in eight of those.
This bet is especially appealing with the managerial change meaning Fernandes will be playing higher in a number 10 role, like in his last two, instead of as a deeper playmaker, not to mention United's attack should look better with the returning AFCON players.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-3 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Chelsea vs Brentford
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Will Liam Rosenior turn Chelsea's fortunes around? He has a job on his hands that's for sure, with the Blues having won just two of their last 10 league games and only four of 10 at home all season in the top flight. They are an avoid for me at 8/11 to win against a Brentford team who are buzzing.
The Bees are fifth in the table after winning six and losing just one of their last 10, and they in fact sit above Chelsea in the xG table, so perhaps the away win is a bet at 4/1? That could well be the case but I think we should take the away side's star striker IGOR THIAGO TO SCORE ANYTIME at 7/4.
After a run of six games without a goal, the Brazilian exploded into life in the last two games by scoring a hat-trick and a brace, taking his tally for the season to 16.
Of players to have played 800+ minutes, his xG per 90 average of 0.64 is bettered only by Erling Haaland this season, and that figure makes the price on offer here good value against a Chelsea team who have conceded seven goals in their last three at Stamford Bridge.
Score prediction: Chelsea 2-2 Brentford (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Leeds vs Fulham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Leeds and Fulham are two of the most in-form teams at the moment, meaning it's hard to pick either side in the 1X2, though I would lean towards Leeds.
Instead, we have to go back in on JORGE CUENCA TO BE CARDED at 4/1.
Since Calvin Bassey departed for AFCON Cuenca has stepped in at centre-back and been carded in four of his six appearances, including in each of his last two.
On Saturday he'll be up against Dominic Calvert-Lewin who is an absolute handful. The Leeds striker has drawn 1.44 fouls per 90 this season, and has contributed to four opposing centre-backs being booked in his last eight league starts.
Chris Kavanagh is the man with the whistle and he's averaged 4.04 cards per game this season.
Score prediction: Leeds 1-1 Fulham (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Liverpool vs Burnley
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
Liverpool have steadied the ship. After nine defeats in 12 across all competitions, the Reds head into Saturday's game unbeaten in 11, winning six.
They haven't been all that convincing though, and continue to throw in some strange performances, but Burnley are just bad.
The Clarets sit bottom of the xG table, posting the worst defensive numbers in the league, so it wouldn't be a surprise to see them get hammered at Anfield.
It's a no bet for us though.
Score prediction: Liverpool 2-0 Burnley (Sky Bet odds: 5/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Sunderland vs Crystal Palace
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
What a bad month it's been for Crystal Palace. Since losing to Manchester City on 14 December the Eagles have failed to win any of their eight games in all competitions, losing four, culminating in one of the biggest FA Cup shocks in history at the hands of step six Macclesfield.
The recurring issue across that poor run of results has been an inability to defend set-pieces, with Oliver Glasner's side conceding nine goals from dead-ball situations in that eight-game span.
I was immediately drawn towards Dan Ballard, but he's generally 15/2 TO SCORE ANYTIME. Centre-back partner OMAR ALDERETE is a considerably bigger 14/1 and worth a small bet.
The Paraguayan has seen his shot output increase of late, firing at least one in six of his last eight starts and taking nine in total so he is getting opportunities. He has scored already this season too, and with a chance that Palace follow Ballard, Alderete could be overlooked.
Score prediction: Sunderland 1-0 Crystal Palace (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Tottenham vs West Ham
- Kick-off: Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Live odds, form and stats
El Sackico.
The two favourites in the Next Manager to Leave market square-off at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium and defeat for either could spell the end of their tenure.
That could add to a match that already tends to get spicy between these London rivals. There have been two red cards in the last five head-to-heads, with card tallies of 2-4-5-5-6, so we have to delve into the TO BE CARDED market.
Our old friend and Tottenham captain CRISTIAN ROMERO should be backed at 3/1.
The Argentine has eight cards to his name this season at an average of 0.49 per 90 making the price on offer huge before the importance of the game, the rivalry and the opponent even enters the equation.
He'll likely be up against new West Ham striker Valentin Castellanos who has a good track record of drawing fouls, winning 2.33 per 90 last season, 1.58 the season before and 1.66 before that in Serie A.
Not only will Romero have to contend with his compatriot, but there is every chance Jarrod Bowen (1.38 fouls won p90) and Crysencio Summerville (2.51) meet him head on at some stage during the 90 minutes, which would be bad news for Romero and good news for us. They are excellent in transition which equals cynical, card-worthy fouls.
The referee here is Jarred Gillett, and while he isn't the most forthcoming with his cards (3.46 per game), he did oversee the reverse game, brandishing a red.
Given how hot he can run, and the fact that, should things be going against Spurs the crowd will be against their team, we'll also have a much smaller bet on ROMERO TO BE SENT OFF at 40/1.
Score prediction: Tottenham 1-1 West Ham (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Nottingham Forest vs Arsenal
- Kick-off: Saturday, 17:30 GMT
- TV: TNT Sports 1
- Live odds, form and stats
League leaders Arsenal head to a struggling Nottingham Forest in the late Sunday game, but there is one match-up I'm targeting: IGOR JESUS vs GABRIEL MAGALHAES.
The all-Brazilian showdown will be physical, and Jesus has been dishing out some bruisings of late to opposing centre-backs, so backing JESUS 1+ FOUL COMMITTED and GABRIEL 1+ FOUL WON at even money makes plenty of appeal.
Across his last 15 starts for Forest since Sean Dyche was appointed, Jesus has committed an average of 2.01 fouls per 90. Meanwhile Gabriel has drawn 1.53 fouls per 90 across his last 11, being fouled in 10 of those.
The selection has landed in 10 of Jesus's last 11 starts and looks overpriced here, while the bet has landed in nine of Gabriel's last 11 starts.
Score prediction: Nottingham Forest 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Odds correct at 16:00 (15/01/26)
Wolves vs Newcastle
- Kick-off: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Wolves are looking like a decent team all of a sudden, especially at the back where only Arsenal have conceded fewer xGA than the Old Gold over the last six league games. Newcastle don't travel well, so another positive result wouldn't be a surprise.
But, there is a CARD coming for Wolves' JHON ARIAS, who has been a revelation since moving to a central midfield role over the last three games, but has been foul-crazy.
Signed as a winger, his last three starts have come in midfield and it's coincided with Wolves picking a win and two draws, with his energy, pace and tenacity a fantastic tonic to a dour situation. In those three games he's committed 10 fouls at an average of 4.02 per 90 but has somehow escaped a card.
On Sunday he'll be up against the team who have drawn the second most cards in the league this season (51), with Newcastle's midfielders in particular fantastic at drawing fouls and cards.
Sam Barrott is the referee and he's averaged 4.0 cards per game, so we'll take a chance on Arias at 4/1.
Score prediction: Wolves 1-1 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (16/01/26)
Aston Villa vs Everton
- Kick-off: Sunday, 16:30 GMT
- TV: Sky Sports Main Event
- Live odds, form and stats
Aston Villa are flying, Everton are not. The Toffees have won just one of seven in all competitions, whereas Villa have won 19 of their last 23. A home win is nicely priced at 4/6 (General) and I wouldn't put anyone off a hefty bet on that given how good Villa are at home, especially with the visitors lengthy absentee list.
One player who is back after serving a one-match ban last weekend is Jack Grealish, which means Aston Villa's right hand side will be in foul trouble.
Unfortunately the price about Matty Cash to be carded has been hammered in from 9/2 to 10/3 (bet365) and 11/4 (Sky Bet) so we've missed the boat on that one which is a shame as the Polish international has history with Grealish, so we have to pivot.
Aston Villa's midfield injuries to Amadou Onana, Ross Barkley and Boubacar Kamara mean LEMARE BOGARDE is set for a run in the team, and he is too big at 9/2 TO BE CARDED.
He has a tremendous card record this season, collecting five across admittedly limited minutes in all competitions at an average of 0.47 per 90. Bogarde has averaged 1.78 fouls per 90 this term too, and playing as the right-sided midfielder he'll lock horns with Grealish.
Everton's on-loan winger has drawn 3.04 fouls per 90, and the right-sided central midfielder has been booked in eight of his last 14 league starts, putting Bogarde firmly in the firing line.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-0 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct at 16:00 (16/01/26)
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