- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 455.75pts | Returned 484.21pts | P/L +28.46pts | ROI 6.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday
1.5pts Alexander Isak to score anytime in Brighton vs Newcastle (14:00) at 23/20 (Betfred)
2pts Marc Cucurella 1+ total shot in Chelsea vs Liverpool (16:30) at 23/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes, Betway)
0.5pt Marc Cucurella 2+ total shots in Chelsea vs Liverpool (16:30) at 6/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
We made a small profit last week to push the season profit to nearly +30, but we still have four gameweeks to go to try and build the pot. No resting on the laurels in this column.
In the league, the title is done - well done Liverpool - and the relegation is done - yet another pathetic display from the three promoted teams - so the only excitement remaining is the race for Europe.
With four more Champions League spots up for grabs, two Europa League ones and a Conference League one (I think that's right), there is plenty to play for down to eighth.
Brentford vs Manchester United
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 4/6 | Draw 14/5 | Away 15/4
Manchester United were excellent on Thursday in Bilbao, winning 3-0 and putting one foot in the Europa League final - an opportunity to save their season. They head to an in-form Brentford on Sunday and are chalked up at 4/1.
It is tempting to back the Red Devils after such a performance, but they are so unreliable and this game is of low priority, that said the hosts are way too short to get onside even if they are in the hunt for a European spot.
The Bees have been excellent at home against non-top-seven sides this season - I'm drawing the line there as those seven have pulled away from the rest - winning seven of 10 such games at the Gtech losing just once.
If you were to back the hosts, their record suggests adding BTTS as well (12/5 - bet365, Betfair), with all seven of the aforementioned home wins seeing BTTS. It's a no bet for me here though given United's unpredictability, even if I was close to adding Yoane Wissa to bag anytime yet again (17/10 - Betfair, Paddy Power).
Score prediction: Brentford 3-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/1)
Brighton vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 7/4 | Draw 13/5 | Away 13/10
Goals should flow here with stakes high and two strong attacking teams taking on two vulnerable defences. Brighton have conceded two or more goals in all of their last six league matches, while Newcastle have conceded two or more goals in six of their eight away games against top 11 sides.
Brighton are chasing an eighth-placed finish, Newcastle looking to secure a top five spot, so both need wins meaning we could be set for a classic.
Over 3.5 goals is available at 23/20 so the market agrees with this being a high-scoring contest, and while I was tempted to throw a bigger goal line into the staking plan - over 4.5 goals at 7/2, over 5.5 goals at 8/1 - I've instead been drawn to ALEXANDER ISAK TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Isak has been prolific this season, with only Mohamed Salah scoring more goals than the Swede. He's averaging 0.69 xG per 90 this term and has found the net in six of his last 10 outings, firing seven goals in that time.
The Swede has found the net in half of his away games this season, scoring a total of 11 in 16 road games, and up against a vulnerable and desperate Brighton team, he should get chances, especially with Newcastle similarly desperate. He did notch in the recent FA Cup meeting between the sides too.
Score prediction: Brighton 3-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 18/1)
West Ham vs Tottenham
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/4
West Ham at 23/20? No thanks.
Even it Tottenham will rotate ahead of a trip to the arctic circle, the Hammers shouldn't be that short to win a football match against a side not in the bottom three.
Again, as with the Brentford vs Manchester United game, the uncertainty around Spurs has presented a lack of value in certain markets, while I have struggled to get the Hammers right all season.
I'll swerve this game, though if pushed for a lean it would be towards Niclas Fulkrug to score a header at 8/1 (Betway). He should get the nod (pardon the pun) to start this weekend and his aerial prowess could cause major issues for a rotated Spurs side who struggle to deal with set-pieces and crosses at the best of times.
Two of the German's three goals this season have come from his noggin.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-1 Tottenham (Sky Bet odds: 7/1)
Chelsea vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 21/20 | Draw 13/5 | Away 9/4
"Cucu, Cucurella, he eats paella, Cucu, Cucurella he drinks Estrella"
Yes, it's that time of the week again. Not to be boring, but when mi amigo mate MARC CUCURELLA is still being priced around 23/20 just to have 1+ TOTAL SHOT, he has to feature in the staking plan.
The sweet Spanish prince delivered for us again last weekend, with him taking three shots against Everton, and I must admit he is fast becoming my favourite player. He even managed a shot in Sweden on Thursday despite playing only 45 minutes.
That means this bet has now won in 17 of his last 22 starts for Chelsea, with the Estrella drinking full-back averaging 1.23 shots per 90 in that time. At the Bridge he's had a shot in 11 of his last 12 starts, with those attempts coming from a variety of avenues - long-range, set-pieces, six-yard box tap-ins etc.
The Blues face champions Liverpool in what is a huge game for the hosts and their bid to secure a top five berth, so we should expect Chelsea to give it a real go here with three points vital.
They have no excuse to not go full-strength and leave it all out there given they are 4-1 up in their Conference League semi-final, and so at 6/1 we'll also back CUCURELLA 2+ TOTAL SHOTS as well.
Cucu - we are on nickname terms - has taken multiple shots in six of his last 12 starts at home, and so the price looks massive, especially given the importance of the game for the hosts and the fact Liverpool could have been on the Estrella's all week; let's hope they have.
For those that want to go Cucu-crazy, as let's not forget he's Chelsea's top scorer since mid-December, he's 9/2 for a shot on target (Betway), a feat he's managed in seven of his last 22 outings, and 14/1 to score anytime (Betfair, Paddy Power), with all of his six goals coming in his last 12 outings at Stamford Bridge.
Score prediction: Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Super 6 predictions for round 55
- Everton 3-1 Ipswich
- Leicester 2-2 Southampton
- Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth
- Brentford 3-1 Manchester United
- Brighton 3-2 Newcastle
- Chelsea 1-1 Liverpool
Already advised
1pt Manchester City to win and BTTS vs Wolves (20:00) at 9/5 (General)
1pt Iliman Ndiaye to score anytime in Everton vs Ipswich (15:00) at 23/10 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2pts Under 3.5 cards in Leicester vs Southampton (15:00) at 17/20 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.25pt No cards in Leicester vs Southampton (15:00) at 20/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)
2.5pts Both teams to score and Over 2.5 Goals in Aston Villa vs Fulham (12:30) at 23/20 (William Hill)
2pts Tyler Adams to commit 2+ fouls in Arsenal vs Bournemouth (17:30) at evens (Betfair, Paddy Power)
0.5pt Tyler Adams to be carded in Arsenal vs Bournemouth (17:30) at 9/2 (Sky Bet)
Manchester City vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 20:00 BST, Friday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 1/3 | Draw 4/1 | Away 7/1
Since the first of February, only Liverpool have collected more points than Wolves in the Premier League. Vitor Pereira's men have won eight of 11 in that time, so while that would immediately make me wary of taking them on here, the schedule has to be factored in.
We can't ignore the fact that it has been kind. All of their six-straight wins have come against sids in the bottom seven, while they played Aston Villa and Bournemouth at good times. They head to the Etihad at a bad time.
Pep Guardiola's side look closer to their usual selves than at any point in the last four months, especially at home. City have won six of their last eight home matches against top flight opponents, with their only defeat coming against Liverpool.
In that time they have beaten top seven sides Chelsea, Newcastle and Aston Villa, and should have enough to inflict a defeat on Wolves. There looks to be a bit of value in backing MANCHESTER CITY TO WIN AND BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE here.
City, while looking more secure defensively, are far from water-tight, conceding in seven of the aforementioned eight home games against Premier League opponents. In that time their underlying process of 2.19 xGF and 1.18 xGA per game is impressive, but does show that they are continuing to give up chances.
Wolves have scored in eight of Pereira's nine away games at the helm averaging 1.22 xGF per game, failing only to do so at Newcastle, and they look a team capable of hurting their hosts in transition and notching again, but ultimately in defeat.
Score prediction: Manchester City 3-1 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Aston Villa vs Fulham
- Kick-off time: 12:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: TNT Sports 1
- Home 3/4 | Draw 11/4 | Away 16/5
This is one of the games with a lot riding on it in terms of European qualification. Aston Villa are seventh and three points behind fifth-placed Chelsea, while Fulham currently occupy eighth, just six points behind Villa but only ahead of Brighton on goal difference.
Both teams need a win then, so we should expect both teams to have a go here, and that should lead to goals, with BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE AND OVER 2.5 GOALS a cracking bet at 23/20.
These sides have been incredibly obliging this season anyway, and that's without the added stakes and importance of the game.
Aston Villa have had issues defensively this season (1.46 xGA per game) but continue to create an abundance of opportunities in attack, especially at home, and that's why both teams have scored in 14 of their 17 home league games this season, with 11 of those 17 seeing BTTS and Over 2.5 goals.
At home against the current top 10, Villa have seen the selection land in six of eight.
As for Fulham, their matches have been incredibly goal-laden against the top sides, with BTTS + Over 2.5 landing in 13 of 16 such contests and in six of eight away.
With both sides needing a win and already boasting incredible strike rates for this bet, we could be in for a cracking lunchtime kick-off.
Everton vs Ipswich
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 4/9 | Draw 16/5 | Away 11/2
Neither Everton or Ipswich have anything to play for here, though with the Toffees' games at Goodison Park now running out - this being their penultimate - we should see a cracking atmosphere and a highly motivated performance from the hosts.
I expect the Toffees to win, as do the bookies, and I wouldn't be surprised to see both teams cut loose with the season winding down and the pressure off, so goals could follow.
That leads me to goalscorers, where ILIMAN NDIAYE looks overpriced at 23/10 TO SCORE ANYTIME.
Arguably Everton's best player, Ndiaye has scored six times in his last 13 starts for the Toffees since Boxing Day, and has been his sides' most dangerous attacking threat, racking up the highest xG per 90 average among his teammates (500+ mins).
He will get chances here, and the bonus for this bet is that he's on penalty duty, so given Ipswich have conceded the fourth-most penalties this season (6) it wouldn't be a surprise to see him get an opportunity from the spot on Saturday.
Overall, 23/10 about a side's biggest attacking threat, when the side he plays for is 1/2 to win the game looks large.
And a final point, Ndiaye simply loves playing at home. He's netted in four of his last six home games across all competitions in which he's played more than 45 minutes, including in a 4-0 thrashing of Ipswich's fellow relegated side Leicester.
Score prediction: Everton 3-1 Ipswich (Sky Bet odds: 12/1)
Leicester vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 13/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 19/10
What a massive game this is.
Leicester are looking to end a run of nine home games without scoring, while Southampton need just one more point to edge past Derby's record-low top flight points tally.
This could be a game played with a fierce attitude, as both look to get a rare win and a possible edge of their opponents ahead of next season's likely Championship title battle, but I think it could be played out the opposite way, in which case I'll happily oppose cards.
UNDER 3.5 CARDS is appetisingly dangled at 17/20 and that has to be given the vote in a game that could have a pre-season feel.
Referee David Webb is one of the best referees around for low card games, and he is overseeing his first ever Premier League game so will be looking for things to go very smoothly with few talking points.
He's overseen 30 games this season across all competitions, averaging just 2.53 cards per game, with Under 3.5 cards copping on 20 occasions. In fact, stretching back further, Webb has seen this bet win in 70 of his last 121 assignments.
Across the Foxes torrid home run, losing nine straight, this bet has landed on seven occasions, with matches at the King Power averaging just 2.56 cards.
Southampton's games have followed suit, with Under 3.5 cards winning in 10 of their last 12 league matches, with those contests seeing an average of 2.5 cards.
I wouldn't put anyone off of laddering the under cards, with Under 2.5 available at 2/1 (Coral, Ladbrokes) and Under 1.5 priced at 5/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power). You can get 20/1 via the Paddy Power bet-builder for NO CARDS which we'll have a small bet on just in case this game really does have a pre-season feel.
As mentioned, referee Webb is, on paper an excellent appointment here and he has already overseen five no card games this term. Across his last 121 matches he's brandished zero cards a whopping 16 times for a 13% strike rate, which would imply blanket odds of around 13/2 before factoring in the two teams record and their lack of motivation.
Score prediction: Leicester 2-2 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Arsenal vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/10 | Draw 12/5 | Away 23/10
Arsenal look a huge price here. If this game were played earlier in the season, the Gunners would be close to 1/2, maybe even shorter. They are a backable 23/20 quite simply because of motivation.
Mikel Arteta's side are all-but guaranteed a top five finish, being seven points clear of sixth with four games remaining, injuries mean they have a small squad currently, and this game is sandwiched between a huge Champions League semi-final.
As for Bournemouth, they are one point behind eighth-placed Fulham, with it likely that that spot will secure European football. The Cherries are highly-motivated, the Gunners not so much on Saturday, and that's why we have the prices on offer.
I think leaning into the latter point, around Bournemouth being highly motivated and desperate for a result, could yield some profit in the fouls and cards market. The Cherries are a fiercely high-pressing team at the best of times, but with the stakes raised as we enter the home straight of the season, they will be unrelenting.
The player in focus for me is TYLER ADAMS, who is priced at even money TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS and is available at a whopping 9/2 TO BE CARDED on Saturday.
- CLICK HERE to back Tyler Adams to commit 2+ fouls with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back Tyler Adams to be carded with Sky Bet
The American is averaging 2.28 fouls per 90 this season, but since the turn of the year that average has increased to 2.45, with the bet winning in nine of his 12 starts.
As for cards, he has been cautioned in all of his last three starts, and has picked up seven yellows in total this season at an average of 0.39 cards per 90. These bets don't require much from the hosts, with Adams and Bournemouth's calling card an in-your-face press that leads to a lot of fouls.
The referee here is Jarred Gillet, a solid appointment for card backers with him averaging 4.38 cards per game in the Premier League this season.
Score prediction: Arsenal 1-1 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Friday's tips - odds correct at 1550 BST (01/05/25)
Saturday's 12:30+15:00 tips - odds correct at 1355 BST (02/05/25)
Sunday's 14:00 tips - odds correct at 1635 BST (02/05/25)
Sunday's 16:30 tips - odds correct at 1730 BST (02/05/25)
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