- Jake's Predictions (before this weekend): Staked 436.5pts | Returned 463.48pts | P/L +26.98pts | ROI 6.2%
Football betting tips: Premier League
Sunday
1pt Mohamed Salah 1+ assist in Leicester vs Liverpool (16:30) at 9/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
0.5pt Mohamed Salah 2+ assists in Leicester vs Liverpool (16:30) at 10/1 (Sky Bet, Betway)
Marginal profit last week thanks to Donyell Malen's strike and Chelsea's failed comeback, though when the first Chelsea goal initially went down as a Marc Cucurella one it was looking like being a very good week.
Unfortunately it changed to an own goal, and then annoyingly, the curly-haired Spaniard scored in midweek against Legia...
Anyway, onto gameweek 33 and there are some important games, but also some rather meaningless ones in the grand scheme of things, with the season drawing to a close and everything already more-or-less sorted bar the European places.
Leicester vs Liverpool
- Kick-off time: 16:30 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/1 | Draw 11/2 | Away 1/5
Leicester could be relegated by the time they take the field at the King Power, while Liverpool could be win the title should Arsenal lose at Ipswich. Either way, we have one team down and out and one team in party mode, and I think that could make for a high-scoring away win.
It's something we've only seen once from Liverpool on their way to glory, when they thumped West Ham 5-0, and I suspect we could really see them turn on the style here, not only because they'll want to finish with a flourish, but also because their opponents are extremely poor.
Don't let the 2-2 scoreline from last week at the Amex fool you, this Foxes team are ripe for being ripped to shreds. They conceded 3.91 xG in that game, and shipped 3.25 xG the game before to Newcastle, so we should expect Liverpool to hit a similar figure.
After all, the Reds have been more potent on the road (2.27 xGF per game) than at home (2.15) this season, and the pressure should be well and truly off them after last week.
So, while I was tempted to back Liverpool to cover some big handicaps, -3 is priced at 7/2 and -4 at 8/1, instead I'm going to take the 9/5 about the best player in the league - MOHAMED SALAH - to register 1+ ASSIST. He's 6/5 in places.
The price looks huge for three reasons;
- He's playing against one of the worst defences in the league and Liverpool are odds-on to score 3+ goals.
- Salah has recorded 18 assists in 32 games, posting a per 90 average of 0.57.
- The Egyptian King is chasing history in becoming only the second player to hit 20+ goals and 20+ assists in the same season, while the single-season assist record isn't out of the equation. He needs just three more.
I think there is every chance he's even more unselfish than usual, looking for his teammates at every opportunity to get closer to those records, and this looks like a cracking game to do it.
Why not take him to join the 20-20 club in this game? He only needs two more after all, so at 10/1 we'll also back SALAH 2+ ASSISTS.
He's delivered two assists in the same league game three times this season, with all of those occasions coming away from Anfield against poor sides (Manchester United, Tottenham, West Ham).
Score prediction: Leicester 0-5 Liverpool (Sky Bet odds: 16/1)
Fulham vs Chelsea
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 7/4 | Draw 12/5 | Away 7/5
What is going on at Chelsea? It's almost as if Ezno Maresca is trying to get sacked. After rotating against Brentford in an important league game for the Conference League quarter-final first leg, Maresca fielded a strong XI in the second leg of that tie on Thursday despite being 3-0 up on aggregate.
He's setting himself up for failure, and like Joe mentioned in his piece on the sack race, is probably a bet to be the next man to go. The Blues are sixth in the table, outside of the Champions League places as things stand, so desperately need to win every league game possible.
They are very easily opposed this weekend at the prices, and I'll happily back FULHAM TO WIN at 9/5.
The Blues, not only struggling for wins in general in the league, have been utterly atrocious on the road of late. They are winless in eight away league games, losing five of those and scoring just three times.
That is an abysmal run of form for a side chasing Champions League football. Five of their six away wins this season have come against sides in the bottom six, and their record away to top half sides has seen them win once and lose on five occasions.
Fulham, currently ninth and just six points behind their west London rivals, have been excellent against the better teams this season. Against the current top six, the Cottagers boast a W6 D2 L2 record, while four home games against the current top four has seen them win three times and draw once, with their last home win coming against champions-elect Liverpool.
As well as contending for European football themselves, the other carrot for Marco Silva's men is a first ever league double over Chelsea, so expect them to be bang at it here and repeat what they did at Stamford Bridge earlier in the season.
Score prediction: Fulham 2-1 Chelsea (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Ipswich vs Arsenal
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 13/2 | Draw 18/5 | Away 2/5
This is one of the games with very little riding on it. Ipswich's relegation is inevitable and they can in fact go down officially this weekend should they lose and both Wolves and West Ham win, while Arsenal are nine points above sixth-place Chelsea.
The Gunners will be on a massive high after beating Real Madrid in Spain to make it to the semi-finals of the Champions League, but will likely make plenty of changes, making the 4/9 about an away win look very short, especially with the shackles off the hosts.
It's a no bet for me here, but if pushed, BTTS would be the play at evens.
Score prediction: Ipswich 1-2 Arsenal (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Manchester United vs Wolves
- Kick-off time: 14:00 BST, Sunday
- Home 6/5 | Draw 12/5 | Away 21/10
What a remarkable midweek Manchester United had. Scoring twice in stoppage time of extra-time to win and qualify for the semi-final of the Europa League was breathtaking, and that physically and emotionally draining game could impact them negatively here.
They host a red-hot WOLVES team on Sunday and the visitors are priced too big TO WIN at Old Trafford, as many sides have already this season.
The Old Gold have won four straight league games, all against sides in the bottom seven - as United currently are - and a win here would in fact put them level on points with Sunday's hosts, a remarkable recovery given their early season plight.
In fact, if the season started when Vitor Pereira was appointed as Wolves manager, his side would be eighth in the table, winning eight of their 16 league games under his tenure.
They welcomed back Matheus Cunha off the bench last weekend and he'll be eager to start and make a big impression with Manchester United one of his rumoured summer suitors, and he will probably be the second best player on the pitch on Sunday.
There is a lot to like about the visitors, who have improved in all areas, whereas United continue to show frailties, especially when playing at Old Trafford. In the league they have won just three of 10 at home under Amorim, with two of those coming against bottom three sides, and they highlighted again in midweek when blowing a 2-0 lead that they are easily gettable.
At the prices, I'll have a swing at the visitors, who have been the better of the two teams for a while now.
Score prediction: Manchester United 1-2 Wolves (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)
Already advised
1.5pts Tyler Adams to commit 2+ fouls in Palace vs Bournemouth (15:00) at evens (bet365)
1.5pts Everton +0.5 Asian Handicap vs Man City (15:00) at 19/20 (bet365)
2pts Under 3.5 cards in West Ham vs Southampton (15:00) at 4/5 (bet365, Coral, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts John McGinn to commit 2+ fouls in Villa vs Newcastle (17:30) at evens (Betfair)
1pt Fulham to beat Chelsea (14:00) at 9/5 (General)
1pt Wolves to beat Man Utd (14:00) at 23/10 (Betfair)
Brentford vs Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 7/5 | Draw 5/2 | Away 17/10
Brighton's season has fizzled out. Four games without a win and they are six points off the top seven with just six games left. It's a tall order for the Seagulls to now qualify for Europe.
Fabian Hurzeler's side have troubled me all season long from a tipping perspective, so I'm going to swerve a bet in this one with both teams unreliable.
If anything, Yoane Wissa to score anytime came closest to make the staking plan at 2/1, but with the last two meetings between these sides finishing goalless, that didn't quite make the cut.
Score prediction: Brentford 1-1 Brighton (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Crystal Palace vs Bournemouth
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 29/20 | Draw 5/2 | Away 13/8
Do Crystal Palace have one eye on the FA Cup semi-final? Back-to-back defeats in which they have conceded five times has sent alarm-bells ringing.
I do expect to see a bounce back performance here though, with Oliver Glasner clearly not happy with their display on Wednesday.
Expect the Eagles to give it a good go here and that means we could be in for a competitive game, with Bournemouth still harbouring some hopes of European football.
TYLER ADAMS's price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS therefore appeals, with him to be pressing high against the likes of Eberechi Eze and Ismaila Sarr.
It's even money with bet365 and as short as 4/9 in places, and the price looks too big given it's a bet that has landed in all of his last five and seven of his last eight starts.
The Cherries will push hard here, as is their MO, committing plenty of fouls with their high-pressing, and Adams can again be at the forefront.
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Bournemouth (Sky Bet odds: 17/2)
Everton vs Manchester City
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 11/4 | Draw 5/2 | Away 10/11
Everton continue to be a very tough nut to crack under David Moyes, and have shown they have the capabilities to bloody the nose of good teams.
They beat Nottingham Forest at the City Ground last weekend, and prior to that held Arsenal at Goodison. In fact the Toffees are unbeaten in six home league games.
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The data around them since Moyes came in has been extremely impressive, with them sitting fourth in the table for expected points and third for expected goals against (xGA).
That's enough for me to get them onside again here, having done us a solid when avoiding defeat against Arsenal, and we'll again back EVERTON +0.5 ASIAN HANDICAP.
We are getting near-even money based on the fact that City were impressive against Palace last weekend, but they have saved their best for games at the Etihad this season.
On their travels since early November, Pep's side have won just three of 12 league games, losing six times and allowing 1.82 xGA per game.
Two of their three wins have come against Ipswich and Leicester, with the other against a hapless Tottenham, so there's more than enough reasons to oppose the Cityzens here.
Score prediction: Everton 1-1 Manchester City (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
West Ham vs Southampton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 BST, Saturday
- Home 1/2 | Draw 10/3 | Away 5/1
We have a lovely blend of two teams not playing for anything, two sides with low recent card counts, and a good referee appointment, so I'll be backing UNDER 3.5 CARDS here.
Andrew Kitchen is the man in the middle, reffing his first ever top flight game, so he'll want as easy a game as possible with little controversy.
He's averaged 3.56 cards per game in the EFL this season but has drastically cooled off of late, flashing zero, two and one cards in his last three in the Championship.
As for the teams, West Ham are 17th but they aren't going to go down, sitting 14 points clear of Ipswich with only 18 left to play for.
Since Graham Potter's arrival their matches have averaged just 3.2 cards, going under in seven of 13, and their only home game against a bottom three side under him saw zero cards.
As for the Saints, their matches have seen just 2.8 cards per game over their last 17 outings, going under 3.5 in 13 of those contests.
Score prediction: West Ham 2-0 Southampton (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Aston Villa vs Newcastle
- Kick-off time: 17:30 BST, Saturday
- TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
- Home 11/8 | Draw 5/2 | Away 7/4
From one big game to another for Aston Villa, who, fresh off bowing out of the Champions League on Tuesday, now host a red-hot Newcastle in a clash for European football.
The Toon thumped Palace 5-0 in midweek and moved up to third in the table, putting five points between themselves and seventh-placed Villa.
This then is a huge game for both sides' chances of qualifying for Europe, so we should see a high tempo from the off.
That should lead to plenty of goals but also a lot of fouls, and at even money we'll back JOHN MCGINN TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS.
McGinn was excellent in midweek against PSG and should start again here in this huge clash.
The Scotsman has averaged 2.04 fouls per 90 in the top-flight this season, but since the start of February his average has increased to a whopping 3.20 per 90, with this bet landing in all bar one of his last seven league starts.
McGinn will be up against some of the league's better foul drawers on Saturday, and should be at his tenacious best.
Score prediction: Aston Villa 2-2 Newcastle (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Super 6 predictions for round 53
- Everton 1-1 Man City
- Brentford 1-1 Brighton
- Crystal Palace 1-2 Bournemouth
- Aston Vila 2-2 Newcastle
- Ipswich 1-2 Arsenal
- Leicester 0-5 Liverpool
Saturday's tips - odds correct at 1020 BST (18/04/25)
Sunday's 14:00 tips - odds correct at 1330 BST (18/04/25)
Sunday's 20:00 tips - odds correct at 2045 BST (18/04/25)
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