Bundesliga Title race: German title chances assessed for each club with remaining fixtures and verdict

We assess the title race in the Bundesliga

Bayern Munich have ruled Germany for the past seven seasons, but the 2019/20 campaign sees them under pressure from four other teams.

Just eight points separates Bayern in first and Bayer Leverkusen in fifth, whereas the Premier League sees a 25-point gap between first and second while nine points separates first and third in LaLiga.

The German top-flight boasts the most exciting title race among Europe's elite leagues. Bayern are the favourites to retain their crown, but those in the chasing pack have demonstrated their potential to de-throne the Bavarian giants.


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Nine games of the campaign remain but it is all to play for with a number of fixtures involving the top-five sides coming up against each other.

Who will win the Bundesliga title? Tom Carnduff assesses the chances of the five teams involved.


Bayern Munich

Sky Bet odds: 2/9

Bayern Munich are the defending Bundesliga champions
  • Current position: 1st
  • Current points: 55
  • Current GD: +47

Remaining fixtures:

  • Union Berlin (A)
  • Eintracht Frankfurt (H)
  • Borussia Dortmund (A)
  • Fortuna Dusseldorf (H)
  • Bayer Leverkusen (A)
  • Borussia Monchengladbach (H)
  • Werder Bremen (A)
  • Freiburg (H)
  • Wolfsburg (A)

Bayern Munich have firmly established themselves as the dominant force in German football.

They've won the last seven Bundesliga titles and are historically the most successful club. Their 29 titles is well clear of the nine won by Nurnberg in second.

The days of Bayern winning the league with a comfortable points margin seem over though and the competitive nature of those below them has seen that gap close.

Last season, they won the title with a two-point margin over Dortmund in second. Prior to that, they'd be winning the league with at least ten more points than the runners-up - the biggest being 25 back in 2013.

The remaining fixtures could see the title change hands. Winnable fixtures against Union Berlin and Eintracht Frankfurt come before a trip to Dortmund - who hold the best home record in the division. Of course, that advantage may not be so strong with no fans in the stadium.

Bayern also have to travel to Leverkusen, another side with strong form at home, while Borussia Monchengladbach will visit the Allianz Arena holding some confidence given their 20 points gained from a possible 36 on the road.

Beyond that, the other games should end in victory. Fortuna Dusseldorf are one of the league's worst travellers and struggle away from home, while Werden Bremen have only picked up five points from eleven games in front of their own supporters - maybe have no fans will help them.

A trip to Wolfsburg on the final day shouldn't prove to be too problematic if the title race goes down to the wire.

  • Title chances: 9/10 - that current four-point gap could be significant and a lot of their fixtures look winnable on paper. However, those key fixtures against Dortmund, Leverkusen and Monchengladbach could completely change the picture.

Borussia Dortmund

Sky Bet odds: 9/2

Erling Haaland has been a star since joining Borussia Dortmund
  • Current position: 2nd
  • Current points: 51
  • Current GD: +35

Remaining fixtures:

  • Schalke (H)
  • Wolfsburg (A)
  • Bayern Munich (H)
  • Paderborn (A)
  • Hertha Berlin (H)
  • Fortuna Dusseldorf (A)
  • Mainz (H)
  • RB Leipzig (A)
  • Hoffenheim (H)

Borussia Dortmund have posed the closest threat to Bayern's title dominance having finished second on four occasions since their last success in 2012.

They have had glory in the DFB Pokal but their focus remains on becoming champions of Germany once again. They came within touching distance last season, and that fixture against Bayern is the make-or-break contest.

Victory there could well move them into top spot and they should go into the contest with confidence given the two fixtures before it.

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There's a big derby against Schalke, which should end up as a win for the team in yellow given their home form and Schalke's poor showings since the winter break. Wolfsburg's form has been better but their overall form at home leaves a lot to be desired.

Beyond that, they take on a Paderborn side who have struggled throughout the season, particularly at home, while Mainz and Hertha Berlin will be targeted as games that must end in victory.

The game away at RB Leipzig couldn't have been timed better in terms of the title race. It'll be clearer where both teams stand when the fixture arrives, but that could end up being defeat for Dortmund.

Hoffenheim have proven to be a tricky side to face when they are away but it's still a tidy fixture for them to finish the campaign off and, if victory is required, it should be a game that ends in three points for the hosts.

  • Title chances: 6/10 - Like Bayern, their remaining fixtures don't look too tricky with a couple of big games thrown in. That fixture against the current champions has to end in a home win if they are to have a realistic chance of securing the Bundesliga for the first time in eight years.

RB Leipzig

Sky Bet odds: 10/1

Timo Werner and RB Leipzig celebrate
  • Current position: 3rd
  • Current points: 50
  • Current GD: +36

Remaining fixtures:

  • Freiburg (H)
  • Mainz (A)
  • Hertha Berlin (H)
  • FC Koln (A)
  • Paderborn (H)
  • Hoffenheim (A)
  • Fortuna Dusseldorf (H)
  • Borussia Dortmund (H)
  • Augsburg (A)

The new kid on the block divides opinion in Germany, but their impact in the Bundesliga has been significant.

2019/20 is the club's eleventh season as RB Leipzig and their third in the top-flight of German football. Remarkably, they've played in the Champions League twice and finished second in their debut appearance in 2017.

This is the closest they have come to winning the Bundesliga title as just five points separates themselves and Bayern at the top. Leipzig were eleven points adrift in third at this stage last season.

Timo Werner has taken over from Daniel Frahn as the leading figure in the attack and has finished as the club's top scorer in their three Bundesliga campaigns. He's constantly linked with a move to the Premier League in the gossip pages and is always worth consideration in the goalscorer markets.

The positive for Julian Nagelsmann's side is that their only game against any side in the top-seven is the home meeting with Dortmund in the penultimate game of the season.

Freiburg, Hertha, Paderborn and Fortuna Dusseldorf join Dortmund in being the five sides who will visit the Red Bull Arena before the campaign ends and they will all be viewed as games that should finish in three points for the hosts. Dortmund are the only one of the five who sit in the top-seven in the away standings.

The trip to Koln could prove to be problematic given their form since the winter break but games at Mainz, Hoffenheim and Augsburg present an ideal set of fixtures for games away from home.

  • Title chances: 5/10 - they're going to need a helping hand from Dortmund when they face Bayern as both teams aim to close the gap but their remaining fixtures are the best out of the current sides in the top-three. A talented side who continue to go from strength-to-strength.

Borussia Monchengladbach

Sky Bet odds: 100/1

Borussia Monchengladbach are title outsiders
  • Current position: 4th
  • Current points: 49
  • Current GD: +19

Remaining fixtures:

  • Eintracht Frankfurt (A)
  • Bayer Leverkusen (H)
  • Werder Bremen (A)
  • Union Berlin (H)
  • Freiburg (A)
  • Bayern Munich (A)
  • Wolfsburg (H)
  • Paderborn (A)
  • Hertha Berlin (H)

It's been a long wait for success for Borussia Monchengladbach - although they did win the 2. Bundesliga title back in 2008.

Prior to that, you have to go back to 1995 for their last major trophy. That was the DFB Pokal as they beat Wolfsburg 3-0 in the final. Side note, the shirt from that game is an absolute beauty and pure 90s football. I'm delighted that I managed to secure a replica online.

Die Fohlen's remaining fixtures are a mixed bag and that makes their title chances difficult. They already need a six-point swing in their favour over Bayern while also hoping for slip-ups from Dortmund and Leipzig.

The away fixtures at Werder Bremen and Paderborn should end in victory but visits to Eintracht Frankfurt, Freiburg and Bayern will prove to be difficult contests and there's a real possibility that they could end up with only a handful of points from those games.

At home, there is that crucial game against Bayer Leverkusen as both battle to secure a Champions League spot. Europe next season is all-but-certain given their current 13-point gap over Wolfsburg in seventh.

Wolfsburg are the penultimate game of the season at Borussia-Park and their form away from home has been decent enough. The same can be said for Hertha Berlin, who they come up against on final day.

Out of the five teams involved in the title race, Monchengladbach have the toughest set of fixtures.

  • Title chances: 1/10 - there is a slim chance of that long wait coming to an end for Monchengladbach but a lot needs to happen for them to secure the title. They not only need to navigate their own difficult set of fixtures but hope for some favours from those above. European football is the realistic aim and they will achieve that.

Bayer Leverkusen

Sky Bet odds: 100/1

Bayer Leverkusen need some big favours from other sides if they are to secure the title
  • Current position: 5th
  • Current points: 47
  • Current GD: +15

Remaining fixtures:

  • Werder Bremen (A)
  • Borussia Monchengladbach (A)
  • Wolfsburg (H)
  • Freiburg (A)
  • Bayern Munich (H)
  • Schalke (A)
  • FC Koln (H)
  • Hertha Berlin (A)
  • Mainz (H)

Always a bridesmaid but never a bride, Bayer Leverkusen are still waiting to be crowned the champions of Germany. They have, rather painfully, finished runners-up on five separate occasions.

The last time that happened was in 2011, where Dortmund beat them to top spot, but the 1999/2000 campaign will always been seen as the most devastating. They lost out to Bayern that year but only goal difference separated the two sides. Two years later, Dortmund beat them by a single point.

It's unlikely Leverkusen will come that close this year given how they are already eight points behind. A positive is that this season has been an improvement on last, where they wrapped up a spot in the Europa League.

A big positive for Leverkusen has been their away form with only Bayern and Leipzig seeing better results on the road. That'll put them in a good position as they travel to Monchengladbach early on.

There's also the away fixtures at Freiburg and Schalke who have both been decent enough at home. The poor form of the latter though will given them confidence.

The home fixtures will be tricky with Bayern and FC Koln, who are one of the form sides during the second-half of the campaign, being the most difficult contests.

Again, like the other four teams involved in the title race, the final game is ideal as they take on Mainz - a side who have struggled across the course of the season.

  • Title chances: 1/10 - while it would be great to see Leverkusen lift their first Bundesliga title, there is just too much for them to do at this point in the season. They need to find a way to close that eight-point gap to Bayern while also bettering the results of Dortmund, Leipzig and Monchengladbach. Finishing in the Champions League spots should be the priority.

Odds correct at 1340 BST (07/05/20)

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