Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Under 2.5 Goals at 21/20 (bet365)
It's been a shocking start to the season for Manchester United.
They have lost eight of their 15 games thus far, sit eighth in the Premier League table and already eight points off the top four, lie third in their Champions League group at the halfway stage and were knocked out of the Carabao Cup in midweek.
The pressure is piling on Erik ten Hag, with the Dutchman now favourite to be the next manager to leave.
It feels like a defining week in his United career, with this weekend's league game at Fulham feeling like a must-win, as is Wednesday's UCL clash in Copenhagen.
Fulham have been a tough team to gauge this season, but did impress last week when holding Brighton to a 1-1 draw away from home, before beating high-flying Championship side Ipswich to advance to the Carabao Cup quarters.
They sit 14th in the table, seven points clear of the bottom three and a win here by two goals would see them leapfrog the Red Devils.
What are the best bets?
To me, that seems unlikely, mainly because I'd be surprised to see many goals at the Cottage, with UNDER 2.5 GOALS the value play.
Meeting in Saturday's early kick-off we have two teams bang out of form in attack, both sides really struggling to create opportunities.
Fulham have averaged just 1.11 xGF (Expected Goals For) per game this season, with only the league's bottom two Sheffield United and Burnley generating less.
Meanwhile, across United's last seven league games they have mustered just 1.03 xGF per game, with that stretch of matches including Burnley, Crystal Palace, Brentford and Sheffield United with the Red Devils failing to rack up more than 1.6 xGF in any of those four contests.
Both sides lack fluidity in attack then, but defences haven't been all that bad.
Against those four teams mentioned above - of which Fulham fit somewhere in the same category - United allowed just 1.15 xGA per game, while the Cottagers held Brighton to 1.32 xG last weekend, Spurs to 1.64 the game before and Sheffield United to 0.25 before that.
Defences could be on top in this one then, and unders looks overpriced in the contest.
BuildABet @ 55/1
- Tim Ream to be carded
- Sergio Reguilon to be carded
- Bruno Fernandes to be carded
These two teams are good for cards, with Fulham collecting an average of 2.50 per game and United 2.40 this season. The referee for this game is John Brooks, who has brandished 4.62 cards per game, including three red cards this season.
Chancing a trio of players to be carded therefore appeals for BAB. Tim Ream has been cautioned three times in the PL already this season, making his price of 13/2 to be booked appeal as a single as well as boosting the BAB price.
Bruno Fernandes has had his name taken four times in the league this season, while Sergio Reguilon was booked in midweek against Newcastle for his second of the domestic campaign, despite playing only four games.
Score prediction: Fulham 1-1 Manchester United (Sky Bet odds: 11/2)
Team news
Issa Diop (foot), Tosin Adarabioyo (groin), Adama Traore (thigh) and Kenny Tete (unspecified) remained out for Wednesday's game with Ipswich, though the latter pair are working their way back to full fitness and might make the squad this weekend.
Manchester United welcomed Casemiro back from an ankle issue in their defeat by Newcastle, but the ex-Real Madrid man was then withdrawn at half-time with a new unspecified issue and will surely only make the bench at best here.
Luke Shaw (muscle), Amad Diallo (knee), Jadon Sancho (disciplinary), Tyrell Malacia (knee) and Lisandro Martinez (foot) will not be involved for the visitors either, while Raphael Varane could not participate in the EFL Cup due to illness and will also need a check.
Aaron Wan-Bissaka was able to come off the bench against the Magpies following his thigh issue and is one of several names pushing for inclusion from the off this weekend, where Bruno Fernandes, Rasmus Hojlund and Marcus Rashford should all come back into the XI.
Predicted line-ups
Fulham: Leno; Castagne, Ream, Bassey, Robinson; Reed, Palhinha; Willian, Pereira, Iwobi; Muniz
Manchester United: Onana; Wan-Bissaka, Varane, Maguire, Reguilon; McTominay, Eriksen; Antony, Fernandes, Rashford; Hojlund
Match facts
- Since winning back-to-back Premier League games against Man Utd in March/December 2009, Fulham are now winless in their last 15 against them (D3 L12).
- Manchester United have won their last six Premier League away games against Fulham – only at West Bromwich Albion (8 between 1984 and 2011) have they won more consecutively at an opponent in their league history.
- Manchester United are looking to win three consecutive Premier League away games for the first time since a run of 10 between June and December 2020. However, both of their away league defeats this season have been in London (0-2 v Tottenham, 1-3 v Arsenal).
- Manchester United have lost five of their 10 Premier League games this season, and have a goal difference of -5 (F11 A16). It’s their most defeats after 10 games of a top-flight season since 1986-87 (6), while it’s their lowest goal difference at this stage since 1972-73 (-5). Indeed, only once have they ever had a lower goal difference at any stage of a campaign in Premier League history (-6 after three games in 2020-21).
- Only Burnley (112) have suffered more high turnovers against them than Fulham (111) in the Premier League this season, with only Bournemouth (5) conceding more goals from such situations than the Cottagers (3). Meanwhile, Manchester United have made more high turnovers than any other side this term (112) but are yet to score from such a passage of play (18 shots).
Odds correct 1100 BST (03/11/23)
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