- Alex Keble (@AlexKeble) is a football journalist who specialises in tactical understanding, analysis and predictions of all aspects of the game.
Cooper's low block
- Nottingham Forest vs Aston Villa
- Sky Sports Main Event: Sunday, 14:00 GMT
- Home 16/5 | Draw 11/4 | Away 4/5
Aston Villa are the best team in the country right now.
Over the last couple of months they are batting away every different kind of challenge, and should they win their next three – at Forest, then at home to Bournemouth and away at Tottenham – they could conceivably go top of the league as we head towards December.
But a visit to the City Ground is trickier than it looks and, arguably, the one kind of tactical test that Villa are yet to prove they can pass.
Unai Emery has a wide variety of playing styles in his locker but all of them rely upon the opposition pressing onto them, something Nottingham Forest will absolutely refuse to do from within a deep defensive shell on Sunday.
Villa beat Luton Town 3-1 thanks to a set-piece opener that forced Luton out, and the only other game this season in which Emery’s side have held more than 60% possession was Crystal Palace at Villa Park – a game Villa were losing 1-0 with 87 minutes on the clock.
The good news for Villa is that only Sheffield United have conceded more than Forest’s five set-piece goals this season, and with set-piece coach Austin McPhee, Villa are always imaginative in this regard.
It is likely to take a corner or free-kick routine to get through a Forest side who are unbeaten at home and have only conceded five goals.
Then again, all three of Liverpool’s goals in a 3-0 defeat of Forest last weekend were scored on the counter-attack.
Having been frustrated by that low block, it was from Forest’s very first venture forward that Liverpool, regaining possession, launched a fast break from which Diogo Jota broke the deadlock.
Given the frequency with which modern Premier League football is played in the transition, it won’t be long before managers trick opponents by deliberately letting defensive teams breeze through them. It wouldn’t be a surprise, either, if Emery was the first man who sets his team up to press badly and defend poorly on purpose.
If Forest are invited to pass the ball around deep in Villa’s half, if Villa look weirdly passive and unlike themselves… well, it might be all part of the master plan.
McNeil on the counter
- Everton vs Brighton
- Saturday, 15:00 GMT
- Home 2/1 | Draw 11/4 | Away 23/20
The last time these two sides met, Everton won 5-1. That will be hanging over both dressing rooms ahead of Saturday’s game, particularly given that Everton are the side in form and Brighton perhaps on the precipice of their first decline of the Roberto De Zerbi era.
Brighton have only won one of their last seven matches in all competitions and are without a Premier League win in their last four, which is their longest run since De Zerbi’s winless start back in October 2022.
This is pertinent because such all-out, high-energy attacking football is particularly prone to collapsing when morale drops: without confidence, the spaces between players become too wide and opponents can start picking them off. This process might have already begun.
The last time Brighton played a team like Everton – a team who sat off, refused to be baited into the press, and then counter-attacked in huge numbers – was Aston Villa. Unai Emery copied Sean Dyche’s model from the game back in May – and won 6-1.
Dyche has his template, then, and he has the right players to follow it. Everton are playing with confidence having won five of their last seven games and, with Dwight McNeil and Jack Harrison flanking Dominic Calvert-Lewin, have the front three to sprint behind the Brighton high line.
De Zerbi’s tactical dogmatism means he often leaves just one centre-back covering. When heads drop and energy is sapped from the press, the opposition are able to get out and run headfirst at that sole centre-back.
Everton did it in May, scoring five goals on the counter-attack at the Amex. Now it’s time to do it at Goodison Park.
High turnover hopes
- Fulham vs Manchester United
- TNT Sports 1: Saturday, 12:30 GMT
- Home 23/10 | Draw 5/2 | Away 11/10
Manchester United’s 3-0 defeat to Newcastle United in the EFL Cup on Wednesday means United have conceded three goal in consecutive matches for the first time since 1978.
It has prompted a flurry of damning reports and I’ll-keep-fighting interviews from Erik ten Hag, suggesting there could be a manager change soon.
But Fulham might be particularly good opponents for Man Utd to play. Fulham have suffered more high turnovers than anyone else in the Premier League (111) and Man Utd – attempting to play Ajax-style football this year – top the charts for high turnovers (112).
Fulham are error-prone, and indeed were twice caught in their own third in the 2-0 defeat to Chelsea, the first leading to Armando Broja missing an open goal and the second ending in Chelsea’s second goal of the day.
However, Man Utd are weak in almost every position at the moment and nowhere more so than in the full-back positions.
Diogo Dalot was torn apart by the combinations between Bernardo Silva and Jack Grealish last weekend, and Dalot and Sergio Reguilon were dreadful in the midweek loss to Newcastle.
Fulham almost exclusively attack down the wings via Willian and Harry Wilson, who look to run straight at the full-back to provide crosses for Raul Jimenez.
With Joao Palhinha dominating central midfield – United’s weakest area – and with the United team looking lethargic mid-crisis, Marco Silva’s side have plenty of reasons for optimism.
More from Sporting Life
- Fixtures, results and live scores
- Expert xG analysis and features
- Transfer news and done deals
- Football and other sports tips
- Download our free iOS and Android app
- Podcasts and video content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
