Can England create history in their Euro 2022 semi-final against Sweden in Sheffield on Monday night? Joe Rindl has the preview and best bet.
Football betting tips: Women's Euros
1.5pts England to win with -1 handicap at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
England's quarter-final win over Spain after extra-time on Wednesday was, without a doubt, a thriller.
It was a classic, mouth-watering clash which was intense from minute one to minute 120 and cemented the Lionesses' status as genuine contenders to lift the Euro 2022 trophy.
Esther Gonzalez opened the scoring for slight favourites Spain in the 54th minute before substitute Ella Toone volleyed in an equaliser six minutes from time.
The Lionesses' route to the #WEuro2022 semi-finals:
— Sporting Life Football & Infogol (@InfogolApp) July 20, 2022
‣ #Eng 2-1 #ESP (xG: 1.25-1.58)
‣ #NIR 0-5 #ENG (xG: 0.21-3.36)
‣ #ENG 8-0 #NOR (xG: 6.07-0.52)
‣ #ENG 1-0 #AUT (xG: 2.63-0.43)
⚽️ 16 goals scored from 13.31 xGF
🥅 1 goal conceded from 2.74 xGA#Lionesses | #ENGESP pic.twitter.com/q3otJheJ1u
And in the extra period, Georgia Stanway scored a stunner on the break before England defended resolutely to reach the last four of a fourth successive major tournament and extend their unbeaten run under Saria Wiegman to 18 matches.
Now Sweden stand between England and a European Championship final at a sold-out Wembley.
Sweden are the top-ranked side at Euro 2022 but, even though they have made it to the semi-finals, have yet to really find their spark.
In the last eight, Linda Sembrant scored a dramatic 92nd-minute winner as they edged past underdogs Belgium despite having 33 attempts at goal.
Last year's Olympic finalists were not clinical, and haven't been for much of the tournament. Before beating an exhausted Portugal 5-0 in their final group match, Sweden drew with the Netherlands and scraped past Switzerland despite winning the xG battle on both occasions 1.67 - 0.49 and 1.86 - 0.26 respectively.
The Swedes are wasteful, not a great sign ahead of their tie with an England side who have conceded just one goal so far this tournament.
England have a poor record in semi-finals of major tournaments, losing each of their last four, but this feels different.
Ahead of their match with Spain in the last eight Wiegman’s side had scored 14 goals in three Euros matches from a total xG of 12.05. Or, put another way, they produced an xG of 4.02 per 95 minutes across the group stages.
Spain's opener was the first goal England had conceded in over five hours of Euros football.
England are the odds-on favourite across the market and I think that's justifiably so.
There are plenty of value bets out there with the Lionesses to win to nil at 15/8 (general) and England/England half-time/full-time at 2/1 (Betfred, Boylesports) both making appeal.
But I particularly fancy backing the hosts' superiority with ENGLAND TO WIN WITH -1 HANDICAP looking good at 5/2 with Sky Bet and Betfair.
Sweden are not a bad side, it's just England are, on paper and going by form, significantly better.
England women v Sweden women score prediction and best bet
- 1.5pts England to win with -1 handicap at 5/2 (Sky Bet, Betfair)
Score prediction: England 2-0 Sweden (Sky Bet odds: 13/2)
Odds correct 0830 BST (25/07/22)
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