Tom Carnduff is backing five outsiders at big prices in the FA Cup third round action taking place this weekend.
Football betting tips: FA Cup
1.25pts Burnley to beat Bournemouth at 19/10 (General)
1pt Wolves or Draw double chance v Liverpool at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
1pt Middlesbrough to beat Brighton at 9/2 (bet365, Betfred)
1pt Hull to beat Fulham at 5/1 (General)
0.75pt Portsmouth or Draw double chance v Tottenham at 11/2 (General)
Liverpool v Wolves
- Kick-off time: 20:00 GMT, Saturday
- TV: ITV 4
- Liverpool 3/10 | Draw 9/2 | Wolves 17/2
Liverpool's season so far has been one of disappointment. Jürgen Klopp's men sit sixth in the Premier League table after 17 games - a huge 16 points behind leaders Arsenal.
Defensively there have been huge issues. They rank as the seventh-worst defence, according to the expected goals data, averaging a worrying 1.69 xGA per outing.
Virgil van Dijk's injury will only make this worse, and the likely rotation that this game will bring opens up the potential for WOLVES OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE to be a winner at a general price of 5/2.
Julen Lopetegui picked up a win away at Everton in his first game in charge, with a narrow 1-0 defeat to Manchester United and a draw away at Aston Villa following it.
It's unclear whether Liverpool will rotate to the same degree as in the Carabao Cup, when they were taken to penalties by Sky Bet League One outfit Derby in early November, but a look back at last season's FA Cup run shows us that some of the players involved then aren't available now.
Diogo Jota is out - alongside Luis Diaz and Roberto Firmino in the forwards area - while others have since left the club.
Facing Liverpool currently doesn't quite strike the fear into you as has been the case in previous years. With a potential youthful outfit on the field for the hosts at Anfield, backing the away side to get a positive result is the play.
Bournemouth v Burnley
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Bournemouth 7/5 | Draw 9/4 | Burnley 9/5
A tale of two contrasting seasons, Bournemouth are battling for Premier League survival and struggling for form while Burnley are in a two-way fight for the Sky Bet Championship title.
The Clarets' rebuild under Vincent Kompany demonstrates that relegation is not always as bad as feared. They've changed their identity and put together an exciting group playing good football.
From a data perspective, only Fulham (34.9) and Everton (33.9) have seen a higher xGA this season than Bournemouth's 33.0 in the Premier League. The 16.2 xGF on their tally is also the lowest by some distance.
Jump down a division and Burnley's 52 goals is eight clear of the next best. That's come from a lower 38.8 xG but it shows that they are taking the chances that come their way.
They also rank as the fifth-best defence - according to the expected goals data - and will be full of confidence as they go and test themselves against a top-flight side.
The Cherries are slight favourites but the odds on offer show the bookmakers aren't truly sure which way this one is going to go. Siding with a BURNLEY WIN provides most appeal.
Hull v Fulham
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Hull 19/4 | Draw 16/5 | Fulham 1/2
You can split Fulham's first half of the season into two halves of its own. The first was a side who - while getting results - were adjusting to life back in the Premier League while the second has seen big improvement in the underlying numbers.
Attacking creativity has improved, while defensively they're limiting the opposition more, so naturally this takes us onto the bet of HULL TO WIN here.
The Tigers' appointment of Liam Rosenior as head coach was a smart move. A clever football person who immediately impressed once making the transition into coaching.
They've won three of their eight games under his guidance, decent enough when we factor in their position in the table when he inherited this group. More encouraging is that the underlying numbers show it could have been more.
Looking at those eight games, Hull have posted the higher xG tally in six of them. If we exclude the away trip to Millwall in his first game - a strong team in front of their own fans - the numbers are very promising.
They've averaged 1.57 xG per game across the last seven with just 0.94 xGA in the same period. Prior to the switch, it was 1.11 xG and 1.61 xGA.
The improvement is evident and while Fulham are a strong team we can expect some rotation, making the 5/1 on offer for a home win a little too big.
Middlesbrough v Brighton
- Kick-off time: 15:00 GMT, Saturday
- Middlesbrough 19/5 | Draw 14/5 | Brighton 4/6
Brighton have been going well in the Premier League this season, but we can expect rotation as they travel to take on Middlesbrough in their FA Cup third round encounter.
There will be first-team players involved but this is a side who were beaten on penalties by Charlton in the Carabao Cup, and this will be a much tougher test.
Boro have been flying under Michael Carrick's guidance, winning seven of his 10 matches at the helm and throwing them well into play-off contention.
Considering what we've seen from them since the managerial change, taking the 9/2 on MIDDLESBROUGH TO WIN is tempting.
Under Carrick, Middlesbrough have been averaging 1.82 xG per game, with just 0.88 xGA. Nine of the 10 games have also seen them post a higher xG tally than their opponents.
While Brighton are a good Premier League outfit, this is a home side going very well in their own division, and one full of confidence based on recent results and performances.
At the odds available, it's worth the gamble on Middlesbrough knocking out a team from the league above.
Tottenham v Portsmouth
- Kick-off time: 12:30 GMT, Saturday
- TV: BBC Red Button/BBC iPlayer
- Tottenham 1/10 | Draw 17/2 | Portsmouth 22/1
When doing some initial research for this piece, I was immediately drawn to this fixture.
The Cowley brothers taking a team to a Premier League side in mixed form? Perfect, along with the huge prices on offer for them to get something.
Then I flicked back onto Twitter to see a video from Sky Sports News accompanied by 'BREAKING! Portsmouth sack head coach Danny Cowley and assistant Nicky Cowley.' Not ideal.
Two nights later, Tottenham hammer Crystal Palace 4-0. But you know what, there's still a temptation to take the 11/2 on PORTSMOUTH OR DRAW DOUBLE CHANCE.
This could go completely wrong, after all it's a big-money Premier League team taking on one battling for the play-offs in Sky Bet League One, but Spurs' overall showings this season don't fill you with confidence.
Rotation is very likely and Tottenham don't have the squad depth capable of competing on all fronts. Playing on a Wednesday night and this being the early kick-off on Saturday gives further hope to multiple changes for the hosts.
Harry Kane's played a lot of football recently so could sit out here, while any form of switches in defence make them far more vulnerable than they already are.
Portsmouth rank as the third-best team for set-piece xG, per Opta Analyst, in Sky Bet League One this season, and that could well be a route for success as they know that the hosts will have the better of the opportunities from open play - it's particularly true when we try and guess Spurs' rotated back-three.
The feeling will change if we see a strong Spurs line-up announced at 11:30 on Saturday morning, but if that isn't the case, we'll have a smaller stakes play on the visitors getting some form of positive result in north London.
FA Cup: Third round betting tips
- 1.25pts Burnley to beat Bournemouth at 19/10 (General)
- 1pt Wolves or Draw double chance v Liverpool at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Middlesbrough to beat Brighton at 9/2 (bet365, Betfred)
- 1pt Hull to beat Fulham at 5/1 (General)
- 0.75pt Portsmouth or Draw double chance v Tottenham at 11/2 (General)
Odds correct at 1225 GMT (05/01/23)
More from Sporting Life
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
