This article was published before England's 2-0 round of 16 win over Germany
England can forever look for echoes of 1966 and omens for a repeat. They have got one. For the first time in 55 years, they went through a group stage in a major tournament without conceding.
Only Italy joined them in achieving that and, while England are the lowest scorers of Euro 2020’s last 16, they can console themselves with the thought that tournaments can be won by pragmatists, not adventurers. They seem to have shifted to prioritise safety in the hope it leads to victory.
They can at least think that the goals against column is not deceptive. The numbers suggest they have one of the best defences.
England not giving up many chances
England had the second lowest Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the group stage (1.4, bettered only by Italy’s 1.0). They only faced three shots on target; apart from Spain and Italy, with two apiece, everyone else allowed at least five.
That record may owe something to erratic finishing, though. England have allowed 26 shots so far, twice as many as Denmark (13) did in their opening three fixtures, while Spain and Italy (12 each) topped that particular group stage chart.
Equally, Croatia and the Czech Republic only had one shot each from within 15 yards, so they largely restricted them to long-range chances.
An ability to keep opponents at arm’s length is showed by another statistic, too. England have only made nine tackles in their own defensive third; Spain made 11 in the group stage, everyone else at least 15.
They also made among the fewest pressures in their defensive third, but 225 in the middle third of the pitch (where the Netherlands, with 265, made the most).
That determination to regain the ball further upfield is shown by the fact Kalvin Phillips, with 93 pressures, ranks third so far and, with 59, top for pressures in the middle third.
Mason Mount made 54 overall in his two games; had he played a third and produced the same numbers, he would be fifth in that stat. The regularity with which he has made tackles and pressures for Chelsea this season means it's no surprise Gareth Southgate is so reliant on him in this England team.
England retaining the ball well
The third of Southgate’s regular midfielders, the holding player Declan Rice, is some way down on 36 pressures, showing how the other two have far more responsibility for winning the ball back.
But there have been fewer turnovers of possession in England games. Their total of 59 moves of 10 or more passes puts them fourth, even if their meagre goal tally shows many simply took time out of the game. It means they have had to regain possession less and none of Southgate’s players are in the top 73 for ball recoveries, though Kyle Walker surely would be had he figured in all three matches.
England rank joint 22nd for tackles; but it is with Italy and only Spain having made fewer. It can reflect a common interest in controlling games and, perhaps, the relative weakness of their groups; tellingly, none of the defensive markers are topped by sides from the ‘Group of Death’ of France, Portugal, Germany and Hungary.
Why Southgate is right in his approach
The knockout stages will prove if England’s cautious approach is successful but in a broader sense, Southgate’s safety-first analysis is correct.
Defence tends to win tournaments, albeit not always the best defence in a group stage (Uruguay did not concede in the first three games in 2010 or 2014, and Portugal in 2010, for instance).
Not since Euro 2000, when the French defence was breached seven times, has the winner of a World Cup or a European Championships let in more than a goal a game. As that side had Zinedine Zidane and Thierry Henry, not to mention Youri Djorkaeff, Robert Pires and David Trezeguet, they could afford to, but the path to glory tends to be paved with clean sheets.
Portugal won Euro 2016 while only scoring nine goals in seven games, Spain the 2010 World Cup with just eight in seven.
The last five World Cup winners have conceded an average of 3.6 goals in the tournament, the last five European champions 4.4. Over the five tournaments from 2006 to 2014, that dropped to just 2.4 per tournament.
Clean sheets are king
The paradox is that many of those teams were more porous in the group stages than the business end, when they are likelier to face tougher opponents, sometimes over 120 minutes. Spain won three consecutive tournaments without conceding in the knockout stages.
Indeed, the last four European champions have had to retrieve the ball from the back of their net once after the pool stage: Robert Lewandowski’s early opener for Poland in the quarter-finals against Portugal five years ago.
Italy’s 2006 world champions stood out for another reason: no opponent scored against them in open play. Gianluigi Buffon was beaten only by an own goal and a penalty. The last two tournaments have actually marked a shift: when Portugal drew 3-3 with Hungary in 2016, it was the first time an eventual winner of the European Championships or World Cup conceded three goals in a tournament game since West Germany lost 8-3 to Hungary in 1954.
France then beat Argentina 4-3 two years later. The 2018 World Cup final – 4-2 against Croatia – was the highest-scoring since 1966, but France did keep clean sheets in both the quarter- and semi-final.
England only actually kept one clean sheet in the 2018 World Cup, against Sweden in the quarter-final. They have three so far and have not kept four in a tournament since the 1982 World Cup. But then the team who progressed at their expense were West Germany. Not all omens are encouraging for them.
