Dale Tempest: Former Fulham & Huddersfield striker on what football will be like post-lockdown, and what teams will be strong
Dale Tempest looks at what the betting landscape could look like when football finally returns, with no fans and neutral venues becoming the norm.
So the discussions are under way and preparations beginning. We may never actually get back to playing again this season (France having already cancelled their season) but it certainly seems like the Premier League’s main protagonists want to at least try, so fingers crossed for an early June start and a completion of the remaining games of the 2019/20 season.
All eyes will be on the planned May Bundesliga return to see how the behind closed doors action is planned and executed. I’m sure there’ll be many lessons to be learnt from them.
I suppose from a betting perspective the normal approach would be to consider all the clubs have fully rested players and welcomed back long-term injuries, and also completed a mini pre-season with a full squad ready for the nine-game blitz.
However, this is uncharted territory and I’d suggest anything but a normal approach. Never assume anything and especially that the form we left behind us on the weekend of March 7 will be continued.
For starters, a game played with no fans takes us into an unprecedented situation. Imagine an empty Anfield or Etihaad - they’d become a very different proposition for visiting teams, let alone the neutral venue scenario which now seems favourite to happen.
I’m sure odds compilers will take that into account but how much adjustment do you make for no home advantage and no fans? It’s not easy and leaves us with a lot more questions than answers.
Anyway, onto the games…
Whatever happens, Liverpool just win the league but there is no need or incentive to run around breaking records now, plus with no cup games to play why wouldn’t Klopp start to prepare for the 20/21 campaign and give his youngsters some game time whilst allowing his senior players a complete switch off?
Pep can’t do that at City. Whilst the lawyers will decide if the blue half of Manchester get into the 20/21 Champions League, City are 5/2 favourites to win the 2019/20 version with UEFA announcing it must be completed by August 3.
That’s a playing and logistical nightmare as they could in theory be playing through all of June and July. Interesting isn’t it. Add to that the Football Association have decisions to make about the FA Cup and you have another kind of fixture nightmare. Watch this space.
Each team will have their own very specific circumstances so it’s important to watch closely the relative harmony at clubs. The Athletic announced the other day that Arsenal players voted by 14-13 to accept the clubs proposed 12.5% wage cut. However as is well documented Ozil on his £350,000 a week has said no.
It’s absolutely his right to do so and I’m not making judgements about the rights and wrongs but it’s to highlight the potential dressing room turmoil players could return to. Some players will have taken wage cuts or deferrals whilst others who were expecting new contracts suddenly find clubs unwilling to match previous wage agreements.
Other players will be running down contracts and looking for new clubs as the clock ticks on to June 30.
Don’t think this is only happening in the Premier League. Many EFL clubs will be on the brink of financial disaster and with no crowd or match day revenue anywhere on the horizon the mounting financial pressures are going to be immense.
The only way to stay in business and cut costs is player wages. It’s such a complex and difficult situation but it’s a general point I’m making about how and if football returns this summer a lot of things could have changed.
There are of course a few individual club situations where you'd make some assumptions . On the positive side Tottenham have to be much improved with Kane and Son back fit, however it could be the opposite with the Toon.
How will the Newcastle players and Steve Bruce cope with new owners and the changes that come with it? Rumours of the return of Rafa or the approach of Pochettino are already doing the rounds.
In the EFL Championship, the biggest danger to Leeds was always mid-season fatigue and long-term injuries. My assumption has always been that if Kalvin Philips stays fit they go up. A fit and fresh Bielsa side won four of the opening five games and I’d expect them to power themselves through to the title.
Another side to note is Charlton. Lee Bowyer’s side sit in 22nd place but have spent the season plagued by injuries. Back in August 2019 a fit Lyle Taylor-inspired side went unbeaten in the first six league games, winning four. The break should have helped Charlton significantly and I’d expect them to avoid the drop.
I’m sure every football fan would welcome a return to action, if and when it’s safe to do so, but when it does happen be very careful with your punting. The football and social landscape of our country could have changed dramatically by the time we do eventually return to some sort of normality.
Stay safe everyone!
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