Everton travel to Crystal Palace for this weekend's Super Sunday clash. Jake Pearson has previewed the fixture, picking out three bets.
Football betting tips: Super Sunday
1.5pts Everton to take 11+ total shots at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
1pt Everton to win at 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (General)
The phrase ‘Super Sunday’ made its way well-and-truly into hyperbole territory a long while ago now, and there will be plenty questioning the decision to schedule Crystal Palace v Everton in the prime-time 16:30 Sunday spot.
There are reasons to believe this could actually be a very entertaining match, though.
After a terrific start to the season Palace have struggled of late, failing to win any of their last four matches and slipping to 14th in the table, just six points clear of the relegation zone.
Admittedly, three of those four games did come away from home, and one was against a revitalised Manchester United in Ralf Rangnick’s first game in charge (though Palace did in fact carve out the better opportunities), but defeats to Aston Villa and Leeds, as well as a draw with Burnley will have disappointed Patrick Vieira.
Remaining solid at the back has undoubtedly been the foundation that the former Arsenal midfielder has built from, the Eagles conceding just the fourth-fewest chances in the league according to expected goals, but they haven’t exactly been toothless going forward either.
They have scored more goals than Arsenal, Tottenham and Wolves to name a few this season.
Kick-off time: 16:30 GMT, Sunday
TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event
Crystal Palace 5/4 | Draw 11/5 | Everton 23/10
The role as Everton manager was nearing on untenable for Rafael Benitez come half-time against Arsenal on Monday evening.
1-0 down and on track for their ninth game without a win, Benitez was all-but packing his bags before goals from Richarlison and Demarai Gray turned the game on its head and won Everton their first three points since late September.
The Toffees have been shipping goals for fun of late, but they remain in the top half of the table in terms of chances created this season.
60% of Everton’s matches this season have seen OVER 2.5 GOALS land, as have 57% of Palace matches, so that is the first selection in this fixture.
In terms of who will actually come out on top in this fixture, do not underestimate the power of a win, and Everton’s come-from-behind victory against Arsenal could be the result that reinvigorates their season.
Despite needing a stoppage-time winner, it is difficult to begrudge the Toffees the win, taking more shots than the Gunners and racking up a higher xG total (1.30-0.91).
There are reasons to believe Palace have been priced up on the short side for victory here as well. At home to Newcastle in October is the only time this season the Eagles have been shorter to win at Selhurst Park, including against Brentford, Brighton and Aston Villa.
A price of 5/2 for EVERTON to record successive Premier League victories is also worth getting on side.
Arguably the best bet in this Super Sunday fixture comes in the shots market though, and in siding with the Toffees to rack up a fair few attempts.
Despite having slipped to twelfth in the table, Everton remain in the top half for average match shots, and on the road they sit even higher, averaging 12.3 shots per match, the sixth most in the league.
Sky Bet have EVERTON TO TAKE 11+ TOTAL SHOTS priced up at 10/11, which appeals as generous given the above figures, and the fact that it has landed in all but one of their away matches this season (that one being against Manchester City).
In fact, if you remove the City match from the equation, Benitez’ men are averaging 13.7 shots per match away from Goodison, so 11 shouldn’t be much of an issue against a Palace side who have conceded an average of 12.1 shots per game this season.
Crystal Palace v Everton score prediction and best bets
- 1.5pts Everton to take 11+ total shots at 10/11 (Sky Bet)
- 1pt Everton to win at 5/2 (Betfair Sportsbook)
- 1pt Over 2.5 Goals at 13/10 (General)
Score prediction: Crystal Palace 1-2 Everton (Sky Bet odds: 10/1)
Odds correct 1000 GMT (10/12/21)
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