Premier League betting tips: Brighton v Leicester best bets and preview
Data-defying Brighton host high-flying Leicester late on Saturday, and Jake Osgathorpe is putting his trust in the home side with his best bets.
Football betting tips: Premier League
1.5pts Brighton to win at 13/8 (Betfair)
What a week it has been for Brighton.
After a six-game unbeaten league run, Graham Potter’s side have lost their last two, though both rank among the most undeserved defeats of the season.
Kick-off time: Saturday, 20:00 GMT
TV channel: Sky Sports Premier League
Home 8/5 | Draw 21/10 | Away 15/8
Based on the quality of chances created by both teams, we calculate that the Seagulls had a 91% chance of beating Crystal Palace and an 85% chance of winning at West Brom.
They were as dominant in those two games as any side has been in a single match all season.
Over their last three matches they have collected just a point, but have accumulated 8.2 expected points (xP).
What is expected points (xP)?
- Expected points (xP) is the calculation of the number of points we would expect each team to collect based on chances created and conceded in each game, using Brighton 1-2 Palace as an example:
- We calculated a home win as having a 91% chance, a draw 7%, and an away win 2%
- Brighton earned 2.8 xP from 0.91 x 3 (three points for a win) + 0.07 x 1 (one point for the draw)
- Palace earned 0.13 xP from 0.02 x 3 + 0.07
Performances remain incredibly strong from Brighton, and the premise of expected goals (xG) is that results will regress to an expected level eventually.
If they keep doing what they are doing in terms of chance creation and limitation – which has them fifth in Infogol’s xG table based on performance – then they should avoid relegation again this term.
Data shows Brighton's performances have been excellent at home
Some of you may look at the prices and need a second glance given that fifth-bottom Brighton are generally 8/5 favourites to beat a Leicester team sitting third in the Premier League table.
You may be even more sceptical given the Seagulls have won just one of 13 home games, but their xG process at the Amex has been sensational.
Only Manchester City (+20.4) have a better expected goal difference (xGD) at home this season than Brighton (+15.8), and the champions-elect are the only side to have accumulated more xP than Potter’s side this term.
Leicester come into this on the back of three disappointing performances. Defeat to Slavia Prague was followed up by defeat to Arsenal last week before a draw with Burnley on Wednesday in which the Foxes lost the xG battle (xG: BUR 1.75 – 1.23 LEI),
The signs are there that this Leicester team could again fall away in the race for Champions League football.
What is expected goals (xG)?
- Expected goals (xG) is a metric that measures the quality of any given scoring opportunity
- Expected goals for (xGF) is the xG created by a team
- Expected goals against (xGA) is xG conceded by a team
Leicester depleted in attack and vulnerable in defence
Injuries haven’t helped, with Brendan Rodgers missing two of his key attacking threats, James Maddison and Harvey Barnes, and the eleven that was fielded in midweek looked bereft of creativity.
While they have been strong away from home this term, with 62% of their total points coming on the road, performances haven't been as good as results would suggest.
Leicester allow chances equating to 1.29 expected goals against (xGA) per game on their travels, and with a makeshift team in defence and attack, this could be a tough game for the Foxes against a Brighton team that churn out chance after chance.
I make a BRIGHTON WIN a bet at anything above 6/4, so the 13/8 we have available with Betfair is value in my eyes, as is the 8/5 available generally.
Not only are they creating chances at an excellent rate, but the Seagulls have been strong defensively of late, allowing just 0.69 xGA per game over their last eight, so should be able to keep Leicester at bay in a narrow home win.
Brighton v Leicester best bets and score prediction
- Brighton to win at 13/8 (Betfair)
Score prediction: Brighton 1-0 Leicester (Sky Bet odds: 6/1)
Odds correct at 0945 GMT (05/03/21)
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