Sporting Life's preview of Brighton v Leeds, including best bet and score prediction
Sporting Life's preview of Brighton v Leeds, including best bet and score prediction

Brighton v Leeds tips: Premier League best bets and preview

Brighton host Leeds in a meeting of the two most out-of-form teams in the league. Jake Pearson has previewed the match, picking out his best bet.

Football betting tips: Premier League

1pt Leeds to win at 29/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

"Leeds will turn it around but they need Bamford!" | Premier League Best Bets

Brighton enter this fixture without a win in their past eight matches in all competitions, but thanks to their early-season exploits, they remain in the top half of the Premier League.

Just how long that lasts remains to be seen, however, with the Seagulls’ performances on a par with their recent poor results.

Unlike last season, when Brighton were the league’s tenth highest chance creators according to expected goals, underperforming their xGF by more than 16, this season they have all but stopped creating chances, registering the third-worst attacking process in the division.

This is an evolving issue for Graham Potter’s men as well, losing the xG battle in three of their last four matches, with the 0.53 xGF they posted against Aston Villa last weekend their second-lowest return of the season; things are not getting better.

Kick-off time: 17:30 GMT, Saturday

TV channel: Sky Sports Main Event

Brighton 21/20 | Draw 5/2 | Leeds 5/2

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If performances continue at a similar level they run the risk of being dragged into a relegation battle, something that seemed unthinkable after four wins from their opening five matches.

Similarly, Leeds also arrive into this fixture in a bit of a rut, just two wins to their name all season – both coming against two of the three newly-promoted teams.

There are caveats that come with Marcelo Bielsa’s side’s season thus far though, the main one being the injury to last season’s top scorer Patrick Bamford.

Without Bamford, Leeds lack a focal point, but they also lack a link man, someone to bring the likes of Raphinha and Daniel James into the game.

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There are reasons to believe that Leeds are on their way to rectifying this issue, however.

In the three matches directly following Bamford’s injury, Leeds created chances equating to just 1.09 xGF per match, while in their last four that number has risen to 1.47, and in their last two matches they have averaged 1.62, just 0.01 lower than the rate they were performing at last season.

Those last two games in particular are a great insight into Leeds’ season as well: much the better side against Leicester, only to be undone by an outrageous goal from Harvey Barnes, and in the lead and in control for 55 minutes against Tottenham last Sunday, Spurs’ equaliser giving the hosts a second wind and turning the game on its head.

The good news as far as Leeds fans are concerned is that Brazilian playmaker Raphinha, who missed Sunday’s trip to Tottenham, is available for selection – a massive positive given he is the only player in the squad to have netted more than twice this season.

He provides Leeds with the quality at the end of their often breath-taking passages of play, ironically something Brighton have been searching for throughout the last two years.

There isn’t too much to choose between these two, and even though they are separated by eight places in the table, a win would take Leeds to within three points of the Seagulls.

The reasoning for backing LEEDS TO WIN this match comes from the prices available, with 29/10 on offer about the away side – an implied probability of just 26% - too big.

Average closing line prices

There is really no more accurate way to determine the true probability of football matches than by simply taking the closing line price, with Leeds’ average price this season currently standing at a little over 2/1.

That ranks them as the ninth best team in the Premier League according to the layers, while Brighton sit two places further down with an average closing price of between 5/2 and 11/4.

Home advantage must be applied for obvious reasons, but just how bookmakers have arrived at a price implying a 50% chance of a Brighton win, and just 26% for a Leeds win is difficult to explain.

The betting should be much tighter, and for that reason, backing Bielsa’s men at the current price makes plenty of appeal.

Brighton v Leeds best bets and score prediction

  • 1pt Leeds to win at 29/10 (Betfair Sportsbook)

Score prediction: Brighton 0-1 Leeds (Sky Bet odds: 9/1)

Odds correct at 1530 GMT (25/11/21)

Premier League Score Predictor: Gameweek 2
ALSO READ: This weekend's Premier League Correct Score Predictor

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