Arsenal 1-0 Man City: Mikel Arteta outsmarts Pep Guardiola for first time

When the final whistle blew to confirm the Gunners' 11-match Premier League losing streak to City had ended courtesy of Gabriel Martinelli's late deflected strike, they had been cut in from 6/1 to a best price of 9/2 to win a first title since 2004.

City remain odds-on favourites, but this feels like much more of a title race than last season - and not just because of the result.

Premier League Winner 23/24 (odds via Sky Bet)

• Manchester City - 8/11
• Arsenal - 3/1
• Liverpool - 5/1
• Tottenham - 12/1
• Newcastle - 33/1
• Brighton - 50/1
• Aston Villa - 80/1
• Chelsea - 100/1
• Manchester Utd - 100/1
• West Ham - 500/1

Odds correct at 19:00 BST (8/10/23)

Had a winner been scored at the other end of the pitch in the 86th minute, this writer would still be saying the same - honest!

The nature of the game showed a huge shift in how Arsenal view themselves as a team.

• North London duo top table
• Late Martinelli strike downs City
• Goals galore elsewhere on Sunday

It wasn't a classic by any stretch, however that in itself was clear evidence of the further step forward Mikel Arteta's side have made.

In this very fixture 165 days ago, Arsenal's title hopes began to falter, before 71 days later City all but ended them.

Arteta learned from it.

Previous defeats not in vain

Undoubtedly there was mental baggage on show at Emirates Stadium, both among an edgy fanbase and nervous starting XI, none more so than under-scrutiny goalkeeper David Raya.

But who wouldn't carry some?

Much has been made of the Gunners' late 22/23 collapse, which encompassed three losses and three draws in the eight matches prior to a dead-rubber final game, but perhaps too little of the significance of last season's encounters with City.

After all, they ultimately lost the title by only five points.

Arteta learned from it.

Schooled by his mentor

Their opening meeting last term was played as late as February because of scheduling oddities due to the World Cup, and City's ruthless 3-1 victory dealt an enormous psychological blow to an emerging Arsenal team.

That win was built upon a surprise approach that prior to that encounter had never been previously utilised by a Pep Guardiola side.

City surrendered 63% of possession that night and rather than look to build up in their usual style, played direct long balls to Erling Haaland.

And it came down to fine margins.

"I have more belief to win the league because I see a team going head-to-head with City. I have more belief in my players," said Arteta at the time.

"We gave City three goals. They are the best team in the world and we matched that level. It is just about doing certain things better to beat them."

Arteta learned from it.

Chastening night at The Etihad

Two months later, with Arsenal's title hopes hanging by a thread, City demolished them 4-1.

That more complete display, which combined Haaland-centric pragmatism with new age Guardiola tiki-taka, made the final weeks of the league season nothing more than a procession.

Arsenal wilted in defeat, a rude awakening for their young, ambitious manager.

"We have to look at ourselves in the mirror and be fair. When City play at that level it's extremely difficult to stay up with them, but we didn't compete in the right way.

"It's a concern."

Arteta learned from it.

'The journey not the destination'

The Spaniard's ability to learn fast should surprise no-one who has committed hours of indulgment to Prime Video's All or Nothing: Arsenal.

There really does appear to be method to Mikel's madness - and mad is what he truly does come across as at multiple points in that docu-series.

So when co-commentator Gary Neville decried it "madness" amid his constant lambasting of David Raya and urges to "go long" in the style of an American dad playing catch in the back yard, it was again no real surprise that Arteta's reaction to a Raya error was to fire up the crowd.

There's no denying that anxiety levels were growing within the stadium, and the new Arsenal number one required a fair slice of fortune when caught on the ball by Phil Foden, but in showing bravery Arsenal were ultimately rewarded.

That lack of bravery, lack of belief, is what thwarted them last season.

From looking timid when faced with the City behemoth, they were truly willing to go toe to toe.

And their manager provided a platform to do so: from a thrilling Emirates clash that saw 4.0 expected goals (xG) to one that did not even reach 1.0.

From letting City surrender the ball and pounce on the counter with direct play, the possession was split 50/50.

"I have more belief to win the league because I see a team going head-to-head with them. I have more belief in my players... but we gave City three goals.

"When City play at that level it's extremely difficult to stay up with them."

Arteta learned from all of it, outsmarting his mentor for the very first time.

Not only are Arsenal better this season, but their manager is too.

Ignore the gap in price, this is a title race.

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