Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts Lautaro Martinez to commit 2+ fouls at 13/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Lionel Messi to score from outside the area at 3/1 (William Hill)
Cape Verde aren’t a success story of the expanded tournament - they’ve got to this stage on merit.
They topped their African qualification group ahead of Cameroon, keeping seven clean sheets along the way, and have gone unbeaten in Group H to finish in second spot at the World Cup, pipping Uruguay and Saudi Arabia to the knock-outs.
Staggering considering they were the rank outsiders to qualify.
Bubista’s side held Spain in their first game, limiting one of the favourites to very little. La Roja only had one shot with an expected goals (xG) value of 0.30 or above.
They then came from behind twice to draw with Uruguay, although it was later revealed the South Americans were in the middle of a mutinous meltdown, before another point was secured against Saudi Arabia in their last game.
Operating in an exceptionally organised low-block, the islanders could frustrated Argentina on Friday.
That said, this is a clash between the second favourites and rank outsiders in the outright market. La Albiceleste are generally 4/1 to win the tournament and the Blue Sharks can be backed as big as 1000/1.
The South Americans barely put a foot wrong in the group stage, taking maximum points, scoring eight goals and keeping two clean sheets.
Wins over Algeria and Austria in their first two games allowed Lionel Scaloni to switch out his big hitters against Jordan, meaning LIONEL MESSI and co will come into this well-rested.
Who else? 😏
— ITV Football (@itvfootball) June 28, 2026
Lionel Messi gets his sixth goal of the 2026 World Cup!! 🇦🇷 pic.twitter.com/XYfHXzLDvP
Argentina’s talisman has scored six goals this summer and he leads the Golden Boot race, two of which have come from outside the box, as have seven of his 15 shots.
What’s more, Cape Verde ranks sixth for shots conceded from outside the box per match (7) which leads me to the angle.
Messi is generally 1/2 to score anytime and 2/5 to have a shot on target from outside the box but he’s 3/1 TO SCORE FROM OUTSIDE THE BOX which looks a generous boost.
Betway has this angle at 9/2 if you can get on with them and I’d personally take the 5/2 available with bet365, considering their extra-time payout promotion.
At 13/10 with Coral and Ladbrokes, LAUTARO MARTINEZ’s price TO COMMIT 2+ FOULS is worth a punt as well.
He’s committed five fouls in three starts, with this bet clicking in two games. The Inter man has averaged 60 minutes a game but should get ample chances to rack up some defensive numbers against this opposition.
Against Cape Verde, Saudi Arabia’s two frontmen attempted nine tackles between them, racking up five fouls. Uruguay’s frontman didn’t register a single tackle or foul but Agustin Canobbio completed six tackles and four fouls drifting in from the right. Spain’s front three completed eight tackles and fouls between them.
It’s worth noting bet365 have Martinez at 5/4 for 2+ fouls and 4/1 for 3+ and this may be worth considering as they are offering ‘super sub’ for this market and it includes extra time.
Odds correct 08:45 BST (03/07/26)
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