This extended international break is certainly a challenge when it comes to trying to pick EFL bankers. Or at least it has been for me.
Last week's effort at doing so from the 14 remaining fixtures across League One and League Two did not go well with the Last Man Standing picks W1 D1 L1, the maybes D1 L1 and the swerves W2 L2.
There were six odds-on favourites. Three won, three lost.
Plymouth (4/7), Grimsby (4/5), and Fleetwood (5/6) were all turned over. Stockport (1/3), York (1/2) and Bristol Rovers (8/11) all delivered on their short-price favouritism, although the former and latter made hard work of 1-0 wins.
Even fewer fixtures have survived international call-ups this weekend, with only 11 matches in the bottom two tiers.
We'll do our best.
Who should I pick in Last Man Standing this week?
In all honesty, with so few fixtures all have pros and cons, but GRIMSBY are the one pick that stands out. They got a punch on the nose at Newport and should bounce back at home to struggling Shrewsbury. The Mariners are W3 D1 at Blundell Park against a tough schedule, keeping three clean sheets. The Shrews have battled gamely at home, but away have just a point.
CHESTERFIELD lost at Cheltenham last weekend in a match they largely dominated; classic Steve Cotterill. It ended a six-match unbeaten run, with those performances built on strong foundations - they may be in midtable but the data suggests they're performance levels are that of a promotion contender. Tranmere, level on points with the Spirerites, draw a lot but struggle to win, doing so only once since opening day.
GILLINGHAM were dominated by an impressive York last time out, clinging on even before a 70th-minute red card triggered two further goals for the hosts. It ended a six-match unbeaten and three-game winning run for Gareth Ainsworth's men, who will be confident of getting back on track against a Newport team with one away point. They did win at home to Grimsby last weekend, but were fortunate.
There are caveats aplenty for everyone else, starting with a PLYMOUTH team who dominated (xG: PLY 2.52-0.99 BUR) but lost to Burton to end an encouraging sequence of five wins from six in all competitions during which they scored 19 goals. Replicate that performance and they should be too much for Leyton Orient, who have lost to Sheffield Wednesday, Barnsley and Bradford at home already.
HUDDERSFIELD have wobbled a little, drawing with Notts County and Mansfield, then losing at Bromley, but they continue to perform well according to the data; across those games their expected goal difference (xGD) was +2.97. Burton continued their habit of shocking the division’s big boys by winning at Plymouth but it was very smash and grab. If you can though, I'd probably back against other teams.
BRISTOL ROVERS made it 11 straight home wins by beating Exeter and will now look to arrest their away day slump at a Crewe team who, having started with a pair of 1-0 wins, have drawn six straight games, with their last four all ending 1-1. The Gas may be W1 L3 away this term but their fixture list has been tricky, losing to top-eight trio York, Grimsby and Gillingham.
Will this be the week ROTHERHAM finally start turning strong performances into wins? The Millers are W2 D4 L2 and sit 13th, nine places lower than they ought to be according to expected points. They have a great chance to kick-start their season at Exeter, who have won only once, losing five and scoring just four goals.
READING against Bradford pits the division's best attack against its best defence, both in real and underlying terms. The team top of the xG table face the team top of the actual table. The Royals have been rampant at home, scoring 15 times in four matches and winning their last three by an aggregate of 10-1. Opposing the League One leaders could be madness, but the Bantams also lost manager Graham Alexander to Preston in midweek.
Odds correct at 15:30 BST (30/9/26)
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