NatWest T20 Blast betting tips: Surrey v Middlesex preview and more

Recommended bets: T20 Blast

2pts highest-scoring over (1st inns) to be over 18.5 at evens - two teams full of big-hitters and all three Oval games so far have beaten this line

1pt double Essex & Leicestershire at 17/5 - Essex can turn things around at home, while unbeaten Foxes simply look too big

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Surrey v Middlesex – 1830 BST, Sky Sports Cricket

This London derby promises much. Two teams packed with big-hitters will perform in front of a full house at The Oval, not to mention the TV cameras.

In terms of the betting, Surrey look their usual too-short price and Middlesex look a spot of value at 6/5, although they are being backed in.

They’ve already beaten Surrey in this competition and are one of few teams who can match the Kennington-based side at the top of the order.

Brendon McCullum came to the party during Thursday’s victory over Kent and he’s ably backed up by the likes of Paul Stirling, Dawid Malan and England captain Eoin Morgan.

The bowlers, led by Steve Finn and Toby Roland-Jones, showed their wicket-taking ability in the reverse fixture and won’t be cowed by the sight of Jason Roy, Aaron Finch, Kumar Sangakkara and Kevin Pietersen.

Even with those men in their side, Surrey struggled to put the Essex attack away in midweek, making just 150 for nine, and the visitors would have left The Oval that night thinking they let their opponents off the hook.

The difference between the sides in the end was one remarkable over from which Pietersen took 26 and that gives a nod to arguably the best bet for this contest.

The highest-scoring over line – remember this applies to the first innings of the match only - is set at 18.5 and going over that looks the way to go.

Surrey’s three Oval matches so far have all seen a best first innings over higher than 18.5 (the hosts were batting on each occasion).

In Middlesex’s matches, they’ve conceded at least 19 in an over in three of their five games so far. They were bowling first on each occasion so it would probably be best for our bet if Surrey bat first.

However, even if that’s not the case, Middlesex’s line-up shows that they have batsmen who can take bowlers to task. Indeed they hit 19 off one over in the reverse fixture.

They bat pretty deep with both Tim Southee and Ryan Higgins having already made half-centuries in this season’s competition coming in further down the order.

Higgins is worth a mention in the top bat market for his side as he’s a 20/1 shot in a market he won with an unbeaten 68 against Gloucestershire earlier this month. He also made 35 not out against Somerset recently and could make his price look big if there’s a collapse at the top of the order, always a possibility if McCullum and co play their free-swinging game.

Best of the rest

A couple of prices make some appeal in the non-televised games on Friday night, including 6/5 about Essex beating Hampshire at home.

Essex have made a poor start to the campaign, losing four of five thus far but two of those losses have come off the final ball – they could easily be sitting fairly pretty at 3-2.

Hampshire lost their first game on Thursday to previously-winless Sussex so perhaps aren’t the threat the bookies have them at. They currently head the tournament betting at 13/2.

Essex are probably now at the stage where they simply have to win if they are to maintain hopes of reaching the quarter-finals. Coach Chris Silverwood has promised changes and you can expect them to put up a good fight at a ground which is usually a pretty tough place to visit.

The other outsiders worth serious consideration are Leicestershire, who host Northants.

It’s been refreshing to see Leicestershire, long one of the whipping boys of the county scene, make a flying start in the competition and the come into this one with a 4-0 win-loss record. Notably they've played the same XI each time.

Despite that record and home advantage, they are seen as outsiders by some firms here – even money is available.

Northants are a decent outfit – as followers of our outright preview will know – and have won two of their three completed games so far.

However, led by the competition’s leading wicket-taker Clint McKay, the Foxes have only conceded more than 150 once this season and look more than a fair price.

Posted at 1050 BST on 21/07/17.