Richard Mann is previewing every quarter-final of the T20 Blast, with Somerset v Derbyshire in focus on Saturday.
Cricket tips: T20 Blast Somerset v Derbyshire
No recommended bets
Last year's T20 Blast runners-up Somerset are one match away from another Finals Day appearance, with 33/1 pre-tournament selection Derbyshire standing in their way at Taunton on Saturday night.
As ever, Somerset's campaign has been built on strong batting, especially at home, with South African Rilee Rossouw plundering 507 runs at a whopping strike-rate of 189.17 this term. With Will Smeed and the classy Tom Abell offering good support, Derbyshire's bowling attack will need to be at its absolute best on a ground that has always favoured batsmen.
The visitors have been dealt a significant blow with captain Shan Masood earning a recall to the Pakistan national team on the back of a brilliant summer in England so far, though head coach Mickey Arthur has moved quickly to acquire the services of Hilton Cartwright.
Anyone to have watched the Big Bash in recent years will know what a dangerous operator Cartwright is, and though a re-shuffle will be required at the top of the order, the Derbyshire batting remains very good.
Along with Cartwright, there is also the likes of Luis Reece and Leus du Plooy for Somerset to be concerned about, so too Wayne Madsen who has made scores of 70 and 100* in his last two Blast appearances, sandwiched between a brilliant 176 in the County Championship.
With 6/4 available about Derbyshire on Saturday, bookmakers are clearly expecting Somerset to prove too strong on home turf, but there are always runs to be had at Taunton and these are two very good batting units that have regularly posted scores in excess of 180 throughout the season.
That said, the 21/10 (Betfair Sportsbook) chalked for both teams to score 180+ runs is skinny enough, and I'd be inclined to wait for now and look to back the team batting second to chase down a big score if the market turns against the chaser in the face of a sizeable first-innings total. Again, Taunton is generally an excellent pitch for batting and chasing, so don't be afraid to bet the team batting second, even if set 200+.
With Masood missing, the obvious place to start in the side markets is the top Derbyshire batsman market.
Madsen would appear the obvious choice to move up from number three, but I'm not sure Arthur will want to change something that isn't broken, while the fact Harry Came – who filled the position with some success last year – didn't even get a game in the recent tour match against India would indicate he isn't about to be thrust back into the role for such a big occasion.
Brooke Guest has battled well lower down the order this season, so was one to take the eye at 12/1, similarly experienced campaigner Alex Hughes, who has been chalked up at 25/1 by Sky Bet.
However, with Arthur giving nothing away at a recent press conference, it's hard to be confident either way, so no bet is advised for all there is probably some value lurking in that market for those in the know.
Unless something pops up in-play, I'll be cheering on Derbyshire, already advised to reach this stage at 9/4, and with 8/1 about a Finals Day appearance and 33/1 snapped up each-way in the outright betting.
It's been a good ride so far, fingers crossed there is more to come from this admirable and always underestimated white-ball outfit.
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