Professional gambler Paul Krishnamurty is back with his best bets for the ICC T20 World Cup which begins on Saturday.
Cricket tips: ICC T20 World Cup
4pts Jos Buttler to beat Travis Head in a match bet at 19/20 (Livescore, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
2.5pts Pathum Nissanka top Sri Lanka tournament batsman at 43/20 (Livescore, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
2pts Adil Rashid top England tournament bowler at 5/2 (bet365, Ladbrokes)
1.5pts Jacob Duffy top New Zealand tournament bowler at 10/3 (StarSports)
1pt e.w Quinton de Kock top tournament batsman at 11/1 (StarSports 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5)
1pt India versus South Africa final at 9/2 (General)
1pt Sri Lanka to win Group B at 4/1 (Livescore, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
0.5pt e.w Aiden Markram top tournament batsman at 20/1 (StarSports 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5)
0.5pt e.w Ryan Rickelton top tournament batsman at 28/1 (StarSports 1/5, 1,2,3,4,5)
There is a common misperception that T20 cricket is quite a random format, in which anything can happen. Naturally the shorter format does make it more prone to upsets than tests or one day internationals, but the formbook generally stands up. In national leagues, there tends to be a clear gulf between the best franchises.
At international level, the gulf is becoming even starker. For example, India - reigning world champions and hosts of this renewal - have won 86% of T20 internationals in the last two years against the other nine major international sides. Second favourites Australia won 68%, while England won 61%. All the other seven countries won less than 50%.
What will it take to win the World Cup?
That differential may be accentuated in India and Sri Lanka, due to conditions. At the Indian grounds, which host the majority of matches and the final stages, huge run totals are the norm. Only the most powerful, deep batting line-ups need apply. That means we can probably restrict calculations to India, Australia, England and South Africa. The other five leading sides cannot be completely discounted, but they are correctly outsiders in the betting.
The draw for the second, ‘Super 8’ round, is pre-determined. Thus, Group 1 will consist of India, Australia, South Africa and West Indies, unless one of them fails to qualify. In that scenario, a non-seeded side would take their place. The seeds in Group 2 are England, New Zealand, Pakistan and Sri Lanka.
Therefore, if India qualify for the semis as expected, the second placed team in Group 1 will play in the other semi, setting up a potential rematch. In what is the much tougher group, South Africa are predicted to come through. This was the 2024 World Cup final, in which South Africa went agonisingly close before being denied by late heroics from Jasprit Bumrah.
In the other formats, South Africa have continued to progress since. They have a huge pool of international players to choose from, and that may explain their relatively poor record in T20s since that World Cup. There has been constant churn in the side, and rarely have they put out a full-strength XI.
It is hard to see any weaknesses. Quinton de Kock has been in superb form at the top of the order, and he can expect strong, rapid assistance from Aiden Markram and Ryan Rickelton. Dewald Brevis, Tristan Stubbs and David Miller are among the most explosive finishers in the game. This line-up can consistently hit 200, and go beyond 250. Few others can.
Their bowling is superb, with genuine strike bowlers in Kagiso Rabada and Anrich Nortje, an economical spinner in Keshav Maharaj, plus two world-class all-rounders in Marco Jansen and Corbin Bosch.
India’s credentials barely need stating. They are the standout side in world cricket, at home, and currently scoring at an extraordinary rate. Opener Abhishek Sharma stands apart in this format. Plus, critically, opponents will struggle to score at will against Bumrah and spinners Varun Chakravarthy and Kuldeep Yadav.
These factors explain my willingness to oppose Australia. Their bowling looks too weak to contain the best sides, and many of their batters will struggle against spin. This could be particularly problematic in Sri Lanka, where they must play their group games. Whilst their top order is outstanding, that probably won’t be enough to carry them through a tournament.
Sri Lanka backed to win Group B
With home advantage, Sri Lanka are decent value to win the group. Of the three non-seeds, Ireland and Zimbabwe are capable of producing an upset against either Australia or Sri Lanka. If they don’t, 4/1 about the hosts in the decisive match would definitely represent value.
There are huge differentials between scoring on these grounds. By far the lowest scoring is the R. Premadasa Stadium in Colombo. In 12 internationals over the past five years, no team has reached 180 and two-thirds of first innings were below 140. Compare that to Delhi, where in 25 internationals or IPL fixtures during the same period, 24 out of 25 first innings were 160 or higher, and six of the last 13 were 220-plus.
Therefore, any bets on batting performance must factor in where they will play. In seven matches prior to the semi-final, Australia must play four in Sri Lanka, (including two at the Premadasa), and one at the lowest scoring Indian ground, Chennai. Only two matches are at high-scoring Indian grounds - Mumbai and Delhi. Whereas England play four matches at Mumbai and Kolkata, and only one at the Premadasa.
It seems England’s star opener will have a big advantage over Australia’s equivalent, before taking form into account. Jos Buttler scored 250 runs in his last ten T20 internationals. Head scored just 129.
Quinton de Kock looks unstoppable since his comeback in international cricket! 💚🇿🇦#SouthAfrica #QuintondeKock #Cricket #Sportskeeda pic.twitter.com/mfShAU6va4
— Sportskeeda (@Sportskeeda) January 30, 2026
With these ground appearances in mind, there could be some excellent each-way value around in the top tournament batsmen market. Openers, or top-three at worst, always dominate these markets. The teams at an advantage appear to be South Africa, India and England - particularly the former.
South Africa won’t play any matches on low scoring grounds. They play five at Ahmedabad - where par is consistently above 200 nowadays - and two at Delhi, the most run-friendly ground in the competition.
They could play De Kock, Markram and Rickelton in any top-three combination, so it makes sense to back them all. If they do progress to the semis, at least one and maybe more seems sure to land a top-five place. Abhishek Sharma aside, nobody else looks as strong.
Duffy the best bet for top Kiwi bowler
On recent and longer term numbers in the format, this bet looks a no-brainer. Jacob Duffy has taken 16 wickets in his last ten T20is, and 49 in his last 30. The favourite, Matt Henry took just eight in his last ten, and 36 in his last 30. Mitchell Santner took only 27 in his last 30.
Adil Rashid has been ultra-reliable for England and his economical spin bowling will be central to England’s strong claims in this world cup. He’s taken 15 wickets in his last ten T20is, compared to 13 for Jamie Overton and 12 for Jofra Archer. Another strong reason to prefer Rashid is that he seems sure to play every match and bowl his full quota, whereas the others are far from certain to do so.
Openers always appeal strongly in tournament-wide batsmen markets, because they have the opportunity to face many more balls. For Sri Lanka, its hard to make a case for anyone below their regular top-three. Over the long-term, Nissanka is way ahead, with 1006 runs in his last 30 T20is, compared to 749 for closest rival Kusal Mendis. Moreover, Nissanka is particularly strong against the associate sides, so he’ll have three good opportunities to accumulate runs.
Posted at 17:15 GMT on 04/02/26
More Cricket content
- Richard Mann's T20 World Cup outright preview
- Richard Mann's T20 World Cup specials preview
- T20 World Cup daily best bets
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