New Zealand and Pakistan meet in the semi-finals of the T20 World Cup in Sydney on Wednesday morning – Richard Mann previews the action.
Cricket tips: ICC T20 World Cup New Zealand v Pakistan
2pts Both Teams To Score 170+ Runs at 11/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Devon Conway top New Zealand batsman at 10/3 (Sky Bet)
A remarkable turn of events on Sunday means that it is Pakistan who will face New Zealand in Wednesday’s T20 World Cup semi-final in Sydney.
South Africa had been in pole position to qualify for the last four, before firstly surrendering a position of dominance against Pakistan on Thursday, and then losing to Netherlands in Adelaide. Pakistan then did their bit by pulling off nervy run chase against Bangladesh just a few hours later.
New Zealand, on the other hand, have enjoyed a much smoother passage to the latter stages and but for defeat to England, have barely put a foot wrong in Australia so far.
The Kiwis are marginal favourites across the boards to reach their second T20 World Cup final in as many years, having been beaten by Australia in the UAE in 2021, but it’s worth remembering that Pakistan won a recent Tri-Series that featured these two sides, along with Bangladesh.
Pakistan underrated for last-four clash
Something else that Pakistan should take confidence from is that their best performance at this World Cup came in Sydney, when recovering from a poor start with the bat to post 185-9, before keeping South Africa's powerful batting unit comfortably in check either side of a lengthy rain break.
New Zealand have also produced some good cricket on this ground, namely when racking up 200-3 against Australia in the opening match of the Super 12s – and all the evidence from the last few weeks would suggest that big runs could be on the cards again.
Sydney has been the best place to bat at this World Cup – the only two scores of 200 or more in the Super 12s have been made here – and it seems highly likely that we will have a fresh strip for Wednesday, thus making it harder for the spinners to squeeze the run rate in the middle phase of the innings.
The caveat to backing big runs is that the pressure of a knockout game can often put the shackles on batting line-ups – just ask South Africa – but New Zealand have played in so many of these matches in recent years, while Pakistan posted 176-4 batting first against Australia in last year’s semi-final.
Can Pakistan's batting deliver?
Some might argue that Pakistan’s batting is a bigger concern. Babar Azam’s form is certainly a worry, but he’s too good a player to stay quiet for long, and runs for Shan Masood, Mohammad Haris, Iftikhar Ahmed and Shadab Khan in the last couple of games would suggest that Pakistan’s much-maligned middle order is coming good just at the right time.
If the rain stays away and lateral movement is minimal – and on that score the early forecast is promising – then Pakistan really ought to make runs here, with Trent Boult and Tim Southee not anywhere near as threatening when the ball doesn’t swing, for all they remain very fine bowlers.
Pakistan’s own attack is excellent, with more pace than New Zealand’s and less reliance on lateral movement.
Having come into the World Cup cold following a lengthy injury layoff, Shaheen Afridi has really hit his straps in the last few matches, while Haris Rauf and Shadab have both been excellent throughout.
But as we saw against Australia, New Zealand’s batting is strong and well suited to Sydney – Devon Conway making 92 not out in that match and Glenn Phillips taking centre stage thereafter. There have been more promising signs from Kane Williamson of late, too.
In all, I do think backing runs is the way to play this one, and taking BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE 170+ RUNS at 11/4 (Sky Bet) would seem a good place to land, without pushing the boat out too far in a high pressure, knockout game.
Conway worth a bet for New Zealand
I had intended to leave the side markets alone, but with Sky Bet easing DEVON CONWAY out to 10/3 in the top New Zealand batsman market, the Kiwi opener must be added to the staking plan.
As already mentioned, Conway was in sublime touch when striking an unbeaten 92 on this ground against Australia, and though quieter since, he is currently averaging close to 40 from seven T20Is against Pakistan.
The way he manhandled Adam Zampa here suggests he will be up to the challenge posed by Shadab's leg spin, and we already know he is an excellent player of the type of fast bowling Pakistan have in their ranks.
10/3 is very fair.
Preview posted at 1320 BST (07/11/2022)
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