Cricket betting tips: England v South first Test preview and best bets for Lord's
Test cricket returns at Lord's on Wednesday as England and South Africa begin a three-match series – read Richard Mann's preview here.
Cricket tips: England v South Africa first Test
2pts Anrich Nortje top South Africa first innings bowler at 3/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
1pt Aiden Markram top South Africa first innings batsman at 5/1 (bet365)
After a short hiatus to make way for limited-overs cricket and the start of The Hundred, Test cricket – now known in this country as Baz-ball – makes its return on Wednesday as England’s three-match series with South Africa begins at Lord’s.
Test cricket in England is currently riding on the crest of a wave following Brendon McCullum’s appointment as head coach, a breathless 3-0 series win over New Zealand followed by a fabulous run chase of 378 against India at Edgbaston.
McCullum might not like the term Baz-ball, but his insistence that England’s batsmen continue to take the aggressive option has transformed many of the same players that struggled so badly in last winter’s Ashes series in Australia.
New captain Ben Stokes deserves equal credit for his positive tactics, and it will be fascinating to the see the contrast with South Africa who play a much more traditional style of cricket, with skipper Dean Elgar a real throwback to opening batsmen of old, and the middle order unlikely to play with the same aggression we will see from Stokes, Joe Root, and Jonny Bairstow.
Root is averaging 113.80 so far this summer, with three hundreds from four Tests; Bairstow 102.33 with four tons. It’s hard to argue too much with those numbers, for all that Elgar hasn’t been alone in suggesting England's approach won’t work consistently against high-class pace attacks boasted by the likes of South Africa and Australia.
Following a crushing innings defeat to England Lions at Canterbury in the last few days, perhaps that is the first sign that Elgar is anxious about what is to come, especially with the news that Duanne Olivier is already ruled out of the series and the availability of fellow paceman Kagiso Rabada still unclear.
Yorkshire fans would probably argue that Olivier isn’t a particularly big miss in England, but Rabada would be and the same issue that hurt New Zealand and India could haunt South Africa, too.
While Trent Boult was expectational in that recent series, once Kyle Jamieson was ruled out through injury, the drop-off to the rest of the attack was stark, similarly with Jasprit Bumrah and Mohammed Shami to the rest of the Indian attack, and England capitalised fully.
If Rabada doesn’t make it, that is going to leave so much responsibility on the shoulders of Anrich Nortje who is an outstanding bowler capable of reaching high speeds, but who shouldn’t be run into the ground.
At least South Africa have spin covered with Keshav Maharaj and I’m not overly concerned by his poor showing against the Lions.
Marco Jansen also struggled in that match, but the tall, left-arm quick could be the type to bowl well at Lord’s if finding his groove. Glenn McGrath and Curtly Ambrose enjoyed bowling at Lord's, and so too should Jansen.
With Rabada fully fit, I do think South Africa boast an attack capable of putting it up to an England batting line-up brimming with confidence, but conditions might be the biggest factor in shaping how the home batsmen perform, and indeed, how this series plays out.
When the sun has shone – which has done for most of the summer – England have made hay on some very good batting pitches. With this current batch of Dukes balls tending to go soft after 20 overs and offering very little assistance to the seamers, batting has been unusually easy in England this summer, though when the clouds rolled in at Lord’s back in June and the New Zealand bowlers got the ball to talk, England collapsed from 59-0 to 141 all out.
As such, the weather is likely to prove key this week, with the latest heatwave experienced in England expected to make way for rain in the next few days. This far out it isn’t easy to know quite what to expect, but England could easily come crashing back down to earth if batting at the wrong time. With James Anderson in opposition, similar comments apply to South Africa.
Were good weather guaranteed, I’d find it hard to look past England given the way they have played so far this summer, but for now I’ll concentrate on the side markets.
The most interesting observation from the four Tests in England so far this summer has been the level of success enjoyed by middle-order batsmen, with Root and Bairstow's exploits already laid out, Daryl Mitchell making three centuries and two fifties from number five for New Zealand, and Tom Blundell averaging 76.60 from number six.
In the Test match against India, Rishabh Pant made a brilliant 146 in the first innings from number five, and Ravindra Jadeja 104 from number seven.
Why? The obvious conclusion to draw is that while the Dukes ball is still wreaking havoc when new, the fact it is going soft and being knocked out of shape so easily is making batting much less hazardous for those in the middle order.
That theory would certainly stand up against England who, without the injured Jofra Archer or Mark Wood, are missing genuine pace for the middle overs when the ball has stopped swinging.
In Jack Leach, they have a serviceable but not world-class finger spinner, and for that reason backing South Africa’s middle order is a must in the next three matches.
That straightforward message is made complicated by the lack of clarity around who exactly will fill the middle order slots for the Proteas, with Rassie van der Dussen, AIDEN MARKRAM, Khaya Zondo and Ryan Rickelton competing for three places, or maybe even only two.
My money would be on van der Dussen and Markram getting the nod, having both made runs against the Lions, and with series betting sadly so thin on the ground at present, I’ll kick off by backing the latter to be South Africa’s top first innings runscorer at Lord’s.
Regular readers of these pages will know I’m a big van der Dussen fan, but he hasn’t yet delivered in Test cricket and I have a few concerns about his defensive technique, while Markram is very interesting now moved down from opening to bat in the middle order.
Markram is a class act, but there is little doubt that opening the batting in South Africa is one of the toughest jobs in Test cricket and for a natural stroke-maker like him, it’s no surprise that his numbers have dropped off in the last couple of years.
Contrast that with his strong recent white-ball form when batting in the middle order, and it’s easy to think South Africa haven’t been getting the best out of Markram in Test cricket.
His second innings 88 not out from number five against the Lions was really encouraging, as were half-centuries against England and Ireland in a couple of T20Is prior to that, and while this is a format change, Markram certainly appears to be batting well at present and rates a bet at 5/1.
For England, it’s hard to look past the Root who really is the best batsman in the world right now. But for punters, he dominates the market to such an extent that were Stokes batting with just a little more responsibility at present, the 6/1 about him would be too big.
My worry with Stokes is that he feels obliged to make a statement every time he bats to ensure his players get the message about his thirst for aggression, and I’ve no interest in backing a sacrificial lamb when there are tastier main courses elsewhere.
The fastest ball in IPL history! ⚡
— Sky Sports Cricket (@SkyCricket) October 14, 2020
Anrich Nortje clocked 97mph, only for Jos Buttler to ramp him for four! The South African had the last laugh though...
Watch extended highlights of #DelhiCapitals vs #RR on Sky Sports Cricket at 9pm. pic.twitter.com/zhw1pWycr1
That main course comes in the shape of ANRICH NORTJE, who bowled really well against this same opposition at home in the 2019/2020 series between the two sides and has impressed since returning from injury, picking up six wickets in two ODIs against England recently, before returning figures of 1-12 in the subsequent T20I at Southampton.
Nortje missed the recent Lions mauling, which is probably no bad thing, and with uncertainty about Rabada’s fitness, he rates a strong fancy in the top South Africa first innings bowler market at 3/1.
Very good with the new ball, Nortje’s extra pace and height means he is better equipped than most if the ball goes soft and stops swinging early, and England’s lower order has tended to wilt against genuinely quick bowlers in recent years – see Bumrah, Mitchell Starc and Pat Cummins.
I don’t envisage them offering too much resistance to Nortje, who has all the attributes to bowl well at Lord's and could easily be a point shorter in the betting than he is.
Posted at 1530 BST on 15/08/22
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