Richard Mann has bets ranging from 15/8 to 50/1, as England take on New Zealand in the second Test at Trent Bridge on Friday.
Cricket tips: England v New Zealand second Test
3pts New Zealand to win the second Test at 15/8 (General)
1pt Matt Henry top New Zealand first-innings bowler at 4/1 (General)
1pt Matt Henry to be Man of the Match at 18/1 (bet365)
0.5pts Craig Overton top England batsman at 50/1 (William Hill)
A washout on day five scuppered what would have surely been a dramatic conclusion to an absorbing Test match between England and India at Trent Bridge last summer, so a better forecast this time around, coupled with a series that has already burst into life, suggests we should be in for another good week of cricket in Nottingham.
Having surrendered a dominant position in the opening Test at Lord’s, losing three wickets in three balls early on the third day, and six in only a matter of minutes, before Joe Root marshalled an excellent fourth innings chase of 278, New Zealand suddenly find themselves on the back foot.
England, on the other hand, are entitled to be riding high with confidence, with the Brendon McCullum era off to a winning start and old boys James Anderson and Stuart Broad back in the side and sharing nine wickets between them in London.
With Matthew Potts having made an impressive debut and runs for Ben Stokes to start his captaincy in perfect fashion, England will hope to seal series victory this week, though major concerns remain over a top three that made little impact at Lord’s.
Brittle batting a major concern for England
New Zealand will see that top three as their chance to keep putting the hosts under pressure, with Alex Lees yet to prove he truly belongs at this level and Zak Crawley and Ollie Pope unable to consistently produce the runs their obvious talents demand. Unfortunately, there are serious technical and mental deficiencies to overcome for each of that trio, something an expert opposition attack is likely to keep exposing.
Kyle Jamieson and Tim Southee were excellent at Lord’s, while Trent Boult’s late arrival in England from the IPL was always likely to mean he would improve for a run-out. He should be sharper this week, and don't be at all surprised if New Zealand pick an extra seamer in Nottingham – probably Matt Henry – at the expense of spinner Ajaz Patel. The latter was a passenger at Lord’s and with Colin de Grandhomme now ruled out of the series through injury, a four-man pace attack appears most likely.
That would be bad news for England who were devoid of answers against the moving ball in last winter’s Ashes, not passing 300 once, and again in the first Test here. In fact, as Root pointed out afterwards, it was only when the ball was changed in the fourth innings that England were able to get their run chase back on track, the replacement refusing to swing and offering the home batsmen some welcome respite.
England didn’t play a spinner in Nottingham last year as James Anderson and Ollie Robinson shone for the hosts, Jasprit Bumrah for India, and with that in mind, the ability to combat the moving ball and make hard runs could prove to be the deciding factor in this match.
That’s not to say I’d expect the pitch to a green seamer or a minefield, but 400 hasn’t been breached once in three County Championship matches at Trent Bridge this summer, and the wickets to have fallen have been taken almost exclusively by seam bowlers.
🏴 Anderson knocks over Kohli first ball!
— Sporting Life Racing (@SportingLife) August 5, 2021
🙌 Anderson is roaring, Trent Bridge is rocking, and England are on the charge.
👏 Things are getting back to normal.#ENGvINDpic.twitter.com/VLz65rY25w
With Anderson and Broad still going strong, England will hope they have the weapons in their armoury to hurt the tourists, but I do think a four-pronged Kiwi pace attack which features a giant in Jamieson and Boult’s left-arm angle has more bases covered, and I find myself once again coming back to England’s batting line-up and its continued struggles.
Despite Root’s brilliance – and there can be no doubt the Yorkshireman has now elevated himself to greatness – there are holes everywhere else, from top to bottom in fact, from a fragile top three to a desperately long tail in the absence of Chris Woakes at number eight.
If Root doesn’t make runs, and big runs at that, England could be in big trouble with Jonny Bairstow and Stokes the last line of defence at numbers five and six. New Zealand really should fancy their chances.
Tourists rate big value despite Lord's defeat
The tourists do have some issues of their own, of course, though de Grandhomme’s injury might allow for more clinical selection, opening the door for Henry Nicholls' return to bolster the batting, and the bowling attack to feature four frontline seamers.
Like England, the Kiwis will know they need more from their top order if they are to turn the series around. Tom Latham and Will Young endured disappointing matches at Lord’s, but the former is an experienced, proven performer at this level while the latter is a good player who has scored plenty of runs in the County Championship this year.
Kane Williamson and Devon Conway are other big names who will be desperate to get back on track, and though I have a few doubts about the overall form of Williamson, the latter made a double hundred on these shores last year and is patently a very fine player.
Having performed so well in the first Test, the New Zealand middle order doesn't concern me, and in the expectation that its generally reliable top order will improve plenty from Lord’s – the first meaningful run-out for Williamson and Conway since the IPL – I do think we’ll see a better performance from the visitors this week who, to my eye, still look a stronger XI on paper, despite their Lord’s reverse.
I’m keeping faith and am happy to recommend the 15/8 on offer with plenty of firms, though Betfair Exchange players should note that NEW ZEALAND drifted to 4.1 pre-toss at Lord’s and could easily do so again if support comes for Stokes’ men once more.
In the submarkets, I’m keen to recommend MATT HENRY for the second week in a row, despite his omission at Lord’s.
Henry has a fine record on these shores, both for club and country, having taken 75 wickets for Kent in just 11 matches in 2018. It's worth remembering that Henry was Man of the Match in the second Test of the series played between these two sides in England last year, having once again sat on the sidelines in the opener.
I nominated Henry as my Man of the Match pick at 25/1 for the first Test of that series, only to leave him out of the staking plan when he wasn’t expected to play at Edgbaston, so I’m not prepared to make the same mistake again.
Should this excellent seam and swing bowler get the nod, 4/1 about Henry to be top New Zealand first-innings bowler is very fair, as is 18/1 for Man of the Match honours. Back both with the insurance of stakes returned if he doesn’t play.
50/1 Overton worth a stab
I don’t want to make a habit of putting up non-runners, but having spent a good chunk of this preview trying to pull apart England’s batting, I can’t resist having a few quid on the CRAIG OVERTON in the top England batsman market at 50/1.
Given England’s struggles with the bat of late, and their over-reliance on Root, it won’t surprise readers to learn that the aforementioned Woakes twice top scored from number eight for England in the Ashes. Overton isn’t in Woakes’s class with the bat, but he can play and has a First Class hundred and 13 fifties to his name.
If New Zealand do abandon their spinner for this Test, an injury doubt to Jack Leach might make England do the same, and Overton would certainly beef up a long tail by slotting in at number eight.
It’s a long shot, as odds of 50/1 suggest, but I like Overton’s attitude and if England find themselves in trouble with the bat again, he’s the type of character who could grit his teeth for 30 or 40, as he did on his Test debut at Adelaide back in 2017 when top scoring with 41 not out.
Making strong selection assumptions this far out is never easy, but Henry and Overton are both very possible starters from what I can see, and the pair are worth backing at their respective prices.
Another bet considered was Lord’s centurion Daryl Mitchell to make a first-innings fifty. Having downed England with a tremendous innings at last year’s T20 World Cup, Mitchell clearly likes playing against England, though 2/1 is the best price I’ve seen at this stage, one which I’m happy to pass up on given the potential for a bowler-friendly surface.
The 4/1 Betfair Sportsbook offer about No Century in The Match is another interesting price, though for all I think seamers could well enjoy the upper hand this week, Root last year and Steve Smith in 2019 have shown that runs can be scored at Trent Bridge when the sun shines. A closer look at the weather forecast and the pitch on Friday morning could push me into a change of heart, however.
For the time being, I’m sticking with New Zealand who blew a golden opportunity at Lord’s but remain a high-class outfit, World Test champions no less, a side which is expected to bounce back this week with that Lord’s runout sure to have done plenty of good.
Published at 1200 BST on 08/06/22
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