Richard Mann reflects on England's first Test victory at Lord's, and assesses the series betting and key talking points with two matches still to play.
Viva La Revolucion!
The Ben Stokes and Brendon McCullum era is up and running. A five-wicket defeat of New Zealand at Lord’s on Sunday gave England their first victory in Test cricket since August 2021, when they beat India in Leeds, and for the first time in a while there is genuine belief that good times are on the way.
But it is just another false dawn? McCullum has certainly brought a refreshing positivity to this England side, a change in mindset and the installing of self-belief into a group of players that isn't that much different in personnel from the side that looked shorn of any confidence as they limped to a 4-0 Ashes defeat in Australia only last winter.
The picture is certainly rosier than it was a few weeks ago, we can all agree on that, but big issues remain and for the ongoing series with New Zealand, a crash back down to earth could be on the cards – perhaps as early as Friday when the second Test gets under way at Trent Bridge.
New Zealand rue missed opportunities at Lord's
Though not wanting to dampen the mood too much, it is important to analyse the first Test objectively, a match of missed opportunities for New Zealand after they failed to defend 277 in the fourth innings, despite having at one stage reduced the hosts to 69-4.
Colin de Grandhomme’s inexcusable no-ball when bowling Stokes on one – he would eventually fall soon after celebrating his half-century – proved to be the turning point in England’s run chase, though the run out of the former for a duck in New Zealand's second innings, as a Stuart Broad-inspired England claimed three wickets in three balls on Saturday morning, was in fact the game changer.
New Zealand had begun that morning on 236-4 with two set batsmen returning to the crease. To then be bowled out for only 285 was an incredibly poor effort, and captain Kane Williamson really should have had in excess of 400 runs to play with in the last innings, not under 300.
His side had largely dominated the match until Broad’s intervention, though the tourists did find themselves in big trouble when bundled out for 141 on day one, only to hit back with seven wickets late in the day and gain control of the Test. It certainly wasn’t one-way traffic throughout, but Williamson will feel this was one that got away.
Williamson will also know that his excellent bowling attack re-opened old wounds in England’s batting, with Zak Crawley’s first-innings 43 the best any of England’s top three could muster in the match, Jonny Bairstow twice being bowled by deliveries nipping back into him, and Stokes' batting appearing frenetic throughout.
As impressive as Matthew Potts was on debut – and the quality of his performance should not be understated – England were once again indebted to the returning Broad and James Anderson who shared nine wickets between them in the match. Anderson remains one of the best bowlers in world cricket, and Broad a very fine partner in crime, but one is fast approaching his 40th birthday and the other his 36th.
Anderson and Broad carry the load again
With two more Tests to come in the series and India and South Africa due in England later in the summer, along with a spate of injuries meaning England’s fast-bowling stocks are already threadbare, any talk of rest and rotation, and the suggestion that Anderson and Broad should not play together anymore – Michael Vaughan was banging that drum back in 2018 – has wisely been parked for now.
But whether the veteran duo will be able to stand up to the required workload in the next few weeks and beyond remains to be seen, leaving Stokes and McCullum with much to ponder. Will they risk pushing the pair to breaking point to win this series, or try to ensure they are fit and healthy for the rest of the summer? With so few fit options left on the bench, it is not an easy call to make.
New Zealand, on the other hand, will be able to attack the rest of the series with gusto. Matt Henry’s fine record in county cricket wasn’t enough to earn him a place in the starting XI at Lord’s, but he was Man of the Match when these two sides met at Edgbaston last year and will be champing at the bit to make an impact, as will Neil Wanger who has been one of New Zealand’s key performers over the last few years.
Expect the Kiwis to revert to four frontline quicks in Nottingham, with that pair coming firmly into contention and giving Williamson the option of resting any of his bowlers who might still be feeling the effects from Lord’s, cards England don’t really hold at present.
That’s not to say New Zealand don’t have concerns of their own. Williamson was badly off the pace at the recent Indian Premier League and didn’t look any better back in whites at Lord’s, while Will Young was twice dismissed cheaply by Anderson last week, and Devon Conway likewise in both innings by Broad.
But Conway, and Williamson in particular, are proven world-class performers who will surely improve plenty from getting a Test match under their belts following a diet of white-ball cricket in recent months. Henry Nicholls is expected to be available, too.
For England, expect an unchanged side for Nottingham, one which will still have big worries about its top order and will remain incredibly reliant on the bat of Joe Root. Perhaps the Yorkshireman will keep churning out the big runs – it has proven folly to bet against it – but as the last 18 months demonstrate, he alone can’t carry England’s batting to victory on a consistent basis.
They need more from that top order, and Stokes and Bairstow who will surely sharpen up from Lord’s. Numbers four, five and six look England’s best chance with the bat, but the tail is very long without Chris Woakes and the top order still unproven and inspiring little confidence.
Batting depth suggests Kiwis remain value
As predicted at the start of the series, both of these outfits boast excellent attacks for the conditions, though right now England have fewer options in reserve, but it’s the batting that will probably be the deciding factor.
In London it was Root who landed the first telling blow, but New Zealand will be right to feel that was an opportunity missed, and if their big hitters can warm to the task and start landing some punches of their own, this series could change very quickly.
It should certainly continue to be very entertaining, and I haven’t lost faith in New Zealand who though not without their frailties, do look to have more bases covered. England continue to rely on too few.
As such, 7/1 for New Zealand to win the series isn't to be sniffed at, but it is worth noting that strong market support for England meant the Kiwis drifted to 4.1 to win the first Test on Betfair pre-toss, and 3.65 after Williamson had called correctly.
I’ll be previewing the first Test in detail later in the week, but with those match odds likely to underestimate New Zealand again on Friday morning, holding tight for now and keeping that powder dry looks the best course of action.
