Cricket betting tips: England v India fourth Test preview for The Oval
England and India head to The Oval for the fourth Test on Thursday with the series beautifully poised at 1-1 – Richard Mann sets the scene in his betting preview.
Cricket tips: England v India fourth Test, September 2-6
3pts India to beat England at 13/8 (bet365)
2pts Dawid Malan to make a first-innings fifty at 9/4 (Betway)
1pt Dawid Malan top England first-innings batsman at 11/2 (General)
1pt Rohit Sharma to make a first-innings century at 7/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Rohit Sharma to be Man of the Match at 12/1 (bet365)
Sport, ey? A couple of weeks ago, a clearly emotional Joe Root cut a downbeat figure at Lord’s as he tried to explain England’s catastrophic second-innings collapse which had allowed a rampant India to go 1-0 up in the series. One match later and Root was all smiles; another century from his bat helping drive his side to an innings victory and leaving the series beautifully poised with two Tests remaining. By late Saturday afternoon, Root and Jos Buttler were spotted enjoying a casual game of cricket with their families on the Headingley outfield in the late autumn, Leeds sun. A rare moment of relaxation for Root in the midst of one of the most challenging periods of his captaincy. James Anderson even appeared for a bowl at the kids, though he still managed a trademark grumble following a miss-field off his bowling.
Making sense of such an improved performance from an England side whose previous Test victory came against India in Chennai way back in early February won’t have been easy for Virat Kohli and his team, though more concerning for the tourists will have been the way they imploded with the bat in Leeds before their own bowling attack lacked the same bite they had displayed in the first two Tests.
For Root and England, things might appear to be coming together with Dawid Malan’s classy 70 at Headingley confirming he should be able to add some much-needed quality to a previously struggling top three, while Rory Burns and Haseeb Hameed played their part, too. Furthermore, seven wickets in the match for Ollie Robinson and six for the returning Craig Overton once again showcased England’s impressive depth in the fast bowling department.
Anderson and Root lead the way again
Make no mistake, though, the architects of victory were Anderson and Root and one wonders just how many times this summer, and beyond, this pair can continue to drag the rest of the side with them. The remarkable Anderson kicked things off with an immaculate opening spell on the first morning and after dismissing KL Rahul, Cheteshwar Pujara and Kohli within the first hour, his final figures read 8-5-6-3. Half-centuries from Burns, Hameed and Malan were most welcome, but it was Root’s flawless 121 that put England out of reach and despite India’s brave resistance on Friday, there was no way back from such a considerable first-innings deficit.
That’s not to paint an unfairly negative picture of England’s triumph; from where they were after Lord's, this was an impressive turnaround. But once again, it was Anderson and Root who did most of the heavy lifting and how long we can realistically expect this to happen has to be in question. Root has top-scored in each of England’s five batting innings in the series; the 39-year-old Anderson has taken 12 first-innings wickets at 10.16 – dismissing Kohli twice and Pujara on three occasions.
At the time of writing, England are said to be seriously considering resting Anderson for The Oval, with the Lancashire seamer understandably desperate to play in the series finale at Old Trafford. Given the importance of this fourth Test, Anderson might need to be chained to the floor in order to stop him taking to the field this week, but five Tests in six weeks is no joke for a fast bowler – especially one who is 40 next year – and with Stuart Broad and Jofra Archer already on the sick list, and an Ashes series not that far away, England are clearly concerned about the risks of pushing their prized asset to breaking point. You wouldn’t wear your best Gucci loafers every night would you, though the temptation to polish them up for such a crucial encounter and hope they make it through unscathed has given Root plenty to ponder.
As for the captain himself, I’m out of ideas as to just how India might look to target him. The Australians would tell you that Root edges a lot of balls behind the wicket off the fast bowlers, but the majority of his runs down to third man in this series have been deliberate, while so good has his balance been all summer, the nip-backer that has troubled him in the past has rarely threatened his pads. Even the promise of spin at The Oval and the return of Ravi Ashwin won’t concern this excellent player of slow bowling.
Still, he can’t keep churning out hundreds – however good his form is – and if and when a rare failure does come his way, I haven’t seen enough evidence to confirm that England’s batting woes are a thing of the past. Malan’s return is a big plus – and I’ll come back to him in a moment – but Burns has endured a topsy-turvy summer, while Hameed and Bairstow still have questions to answer, for all they have undoubtedly displayed promise in recent weeks. I don’t subscribe to the theory that England are a better team without the now absent Buttler, either.
Take Rohit to inspire India comeback
As the old saying goes, one swallow doesn’t make a summer and England need to produce the level of play we saw in Leeds on a more consistent basis, and with significant contributions from more than just the usual suspects, before I’m won over.
Furthermore, India haven’t become a bad side overnight and it shouldn’t be forgotten how well they performed in the first two matches. Without rain on the final day in Nottingham, they appeared highly likely to win that opening Test and Lord’s was a display of genuine quality and fight.
Runs for Pujara and Kohli last week are definite positives to take forward, while I couldn’t have been more impressed with the way ROHIT SHARMA nullified Anderson in both innings in Leeds. He was the only man to look comfortable in the first, while his controlled 59 second time around was only cut short by umpire's call, with the original lbw decision upheld by the narrowest of margins. That’s cricket, of course, but his transformation from swashbuckling white-ball opener to watchful, patient, all-seasons Test match batsman has been remarkable and I’m confident he’ll finish the series well.
In fact, having spent much of the first three matches facing Anderson and Ollie Robinson on old-style English seamers under gloomy skies, I’m sure Rohit will be relishing the prospect of getting to The Oval and batting on a good, hard surface. His 230 runs at 46.00 in the series so far demonstrates just how well he has played, but he’s had some tough conditions to contend with and with Old Trafford to come, things might just get easier for batting from here on in.
If that proves to be case, Rohit is the man to cash in and I’m not about to desert him despite having had my fingers burnt in the Man of the Match market at Lord’s and at Headingley. I’m going in again on Rohit for Man of the Match honours at 12/1, while the 7/1 on offer with Sky Bet for him to make a century in the first innings also makes appeal. Splitting stakes looks the best way to go.
If The Oval and Old Trafford promise more pace and bounce than seam and swing, not only will that suit the batsmen, it should suit India, too, given the way their own batting line-up crumbled against the moving ball on day one in Leeds and how well versed their own attack is at bowling on flatter pitches. Crucially, it should mean a return to the fold for Ashwin, the number one spinner in the world and someone who could prove a real handful in expected conditions for an England batting line-up featuring plenty of left handers and still scarred from the damage he inflicted on them in the winter series between the two sides.
His return should tip the scales in India’s favour, for all Moeen Ali has done well against India in the past, and I expect the away team to bounce back this week, just as they did against Australia recently when recovering from a horror batting collapse at Adelaide to eventually win a memorable series. Kohli has built a resilient side here, and with conditions likely to be more to their liking in London, INDIA are worth backing at 13/8.
Anderson under the spotlight as Malan renaissance continues
Before signing off, I want to make reference to a point I made on last week’s Cricket…Only Bettor podcast. While I've already discussed just how well the aforementioned Anderson has bowled in the series so far – and he has actually taken 30 wickets at 20.96 in 2021 – he has only picked up six second-innings wickets at 57.50 in 14 Tests since the start of last summer.
The most obvious explanation would be that, at 39 years of age, Anderson is struggling to maintain such high standards over five days, though I think that might be too simplistic a view and that in his defence, England’s batsmen haven’t always batted long enough to provide him with ample rest between bowling innings, nor is he underused in the first one. He didn’t bowl badly in the second innings at Lord’s, and after a poor showing on Friday, was brilliant on day four at Headingley.
Nevertheless, the data is pretty compelling and 14 matches is a strong sample size for punters to consider. Whatever your view, should Anderson line up at The Oval and get through plenty of overs in the first innings, would you want to be taking anything around the 2/1 mark, or perhaps shorter, for top England second-innings bowler? I wouldn’t.
One man who I will be backing is DAWID MALAN, as much because of conditions as anything else. Regular readers of these pages will know that I’m a big fan of the now Yorkshire-based batsman and as I wrote only last week, his recall for Leeds was long overdue.
Given his lack of recent red-ball cricket, I was happy to take a watching brief there, but he played beautifully for a well-crafted 70 on Thursday and with that run under his belt, and the quick nature of The Oval surface sure to suit a player who grew up plying his trade in South Africa, he has to make the staking plan this week. Malan’s sole Test century came at Perth back in December 2017 and with the need for his strong back foot game to come to the fore again over the next few days, I expect him to have a good game.
Despite Root’s hot streak, I’ll take a stab on Malan in the top England first-innings batsman market at 11/2, though with the bulk of the stake on the 33-year-old to make a first-innings fifty at 9/4 (Betway).
Published at 1455 BST on 30/08/21
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
MOST READ
Next Off
Fixtures & Results
