Australia host Pakistan for the Boxing Day Test at the MCG, and Richard Mann has three recommended bets to consider.
Cricket betting tips: Australia v Pakistan Boxing Day Test
1pt Sarfraz Ahmed top Pakistan first-innings batsman at 12/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
0.25pts Hasan Ali top Pakistan first-innings batsman at 100/1 (William Hill)
2pts Pat Cummins top Australia first-innings bowler at 11/4 (Paddy Power, Betfair Sportsbook)
Last year’s Boxing Day Test at the MCG saw the curator serve up a sporting surface, one which proved too much for South Africa who were bowled out for a paltry 189 on day one.
The pitches on offer here in the Sheffield Shield so far this season have been a mixed bag, but any assistance in the surface will ensure Australia’s high-class pace attack is in business, and Pakistan could be in for a tough first innings especially.
The tourists were bowled out for only 89 in the second innings of the first Test as Australia’s seamers all impressed, and this could be a market that doesn’t require a particularly big score to win. As such, taking big prices on the middle and lower order could be the way to go.
There were low scores for Shan Masood and Babar Azam in Perth, while rewinding 12 months confirms the middle order was the place to be in the first innings. For South Africa, Marco Jansen top scored from number seven with 59, just pipping number six Kyle Verreynne who made 52.
If the likes of Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Josh Hazlewood start well, as they invariably do, Pakistan’s top order could be in big trouble.
ALSO READ: South Africa v India Boxing Day Test preview
Kicking off the staking plan is SARFARAZ AHMED who made a couple of low scores in Perth, but stroked 41 in the warm-up match and has done really well since reclaiming his spot in the starting XI around a year ago, averaging 46.75.
Sarfaraz is a vastly-experienced performer who boasts a good record against Australia, making a hundred and four fifties in nine Tests at 47.66. Australian conditions have proven tougher to handle, but he has still made two fifties on these shores to suggest he has the game to do well here.
From number six, he looks a bet at 12/1, and I’m happy to throw a few quid at HASAN ALI at 100/1, too.
Hasan is highly likely to earn a recall following news that Khurram Shahzad has been ruled out the series, and his experience should prove invaluable to the Pakistan bowling attack.
But with bat in hand, Hasan is no mug who has a couple of fifties to his name in ODI cricket. His top score in this format is only 30, but 24 won this market in Pakistan’s second innings in Perth.
I have Hasan down to bat at number eight, just behind Agha Salman who would’ve made the staking plan had he been 16/1 or bigger. At 10/1, I’ll let him go and have a very small wager on Hasan instead.
The aforementioned PAT CUMMINS is expected to lead the way for Australia with the ball, and I thought he deserved much more than the three wickets he finished with in Perth.
Cummins delivered 26 overs for only 46 runs across that match and claimed the big wicket of Babar with a terrific set-up in the second innings.
In six Tests, Cummins has 25 wickets at 19.92 on this ground to confirm he enjoys bowling in Melbourne, particularly if the surface offers anything like the same level of assistance it has in recent years.
With 11/4 on offer, I make Cummins a bet.
Preview published at 1120 GMT on 21/12/23
Related links
- Click here for Sky Bet's cricket odds
- South Africa v India Boxing Day Test preview
- Latest cricket Only Bettor podcast
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