Cricket betting tips: Australia v India ICC World Test Championship Test preview and best bets
Australia and India will lock horns in the ICC World Test Championship Test final at the Oval on Wednesday – read Richard Mann's betting preview here.
Cricket tips: Australia v India World Test Championship final
2pts Pat Cummins to be Man of the Match at 11/1 (Betway, bet365)
1pt Rohit Sharma top India first innings batsman at 7/2 (General)
1pt Rohit Sharma to be Man of the Match at 14/1 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
1pt Marnus Labuschagne to make a first innings century at 5/1 (General)
The Oval stages the final of the ICC World Test Championship on Wednesday, with Australia and India renewing hostilities in one of the fiercest rivalries in the game.
It was only a matter of months ago that these two sides were doing battle in India and though it was the hosts that eventually won the series 2-1, Australia rallied manfully in alien conditions, winning the third Test in emphatic fashion having trailed 2-0, before a desperately flat pitch in Ahmedabad thwarted their fine efforts to force a result in the fourth match.
Nevertheless, it was just more confirmation of the fact that Australia remain a terrific outfit in this format, one that might still be on the upgrade, and they sealed their place in this week’s final by finishing comfortably clear of India at the top the World Test Championship table.
Poor preparation could cost India
To India’s credit, they were here two years ago, on that occasion meeting New Zealand in the final, but they went into that match undercooked in terms of red-ball preparation, and it’s worth remembering that IPL 2021 was halted in early May because of the Covid-19 pandemic, meaning their players at least had some time before they faced the Kiwis some six weeks later. This season's IPL only finished a matter of days ago, with the likes of Ravi Jadeja, Shubman Gill and Mohammed Shami all playing in the final on May 29.
Australia have opted not to play a tour match in preparation for the final, either, but while Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc and Scott Boland have been ‘getting their loads up’ at home, their two best batsmen – namely Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith – have been getting acclimatised to English conditions by playing in the County Championship. In Labuschagne’s case, he made two big hundreds in his last three games, while Smith signed off with a good 89 for Sussex.
Australia seem likely to be that bit better prepared than India whose players, as ever, have found themselves prioritising the IPL in the build-up. It hurt India badly two years ago when New Zealand beat them handsomely and with the pitch at the Oval proving to be hard and fast so far this summer, Australia look to have plenty in their favour.
The other big dent in India’s chances is the absence of bowling spearhead Jasprit Bumrah and it’s worth remembering that even with him in their ranks last summer, England’s powerful middle order gave India’s bowling attack a real mauling at Edgbaston. Spin twins Jadeja and Ravi Ashwin might be able to weave their web of magic at home, but in vastly different conditions, they generally find things much tougher and Australia’s pace attack looks superior, even without the injured Josh Hazlewood.
I can certainly see why Australia are likely to go off a shade of odds on, for all I’d prefer to take a view in-running and stick to the side markets for now.
Historically, the Oval has been a good place to bat with spin often playing a big part on days four and five. There have been runs scored on this ground in the County Championship this year, though even allowing for the fact that all three matches were played between April and May, it is noteworthy that 400 wasn’t breached once. Furthermore, South Africa were rolled out for 118 and 169 here last summer and England 158, before the hosts eventually won by nine wickets as Ollie Robinson claimed seven in the match.
One would expect a better surface for a Test Championship final, but I wouldn’t bank on it, and I’ll be interested to see what the surface looks like come Wednesday morning, particularly if India’s undercooked batting line-up are asked to bat first on a quick, green pitch against the likes of Cummins and Starc.
Cummins fits the mould for the Oval
Robinson’s heroics on this ground a year ago should have come as no surprise. A big, tall quick who generally seams, rather than swing the ball, Robinson is very much in the mould of the perfect bowler for the Oval. Steve Harmison took his 25 wickets on this ground at 25.64 – markedly better than his overall career average. Glenn McGrath’s numbers were rarely unimpressive, but in three matches here he claimed 19 wickets at 19.78. Those numbers would read even better had Shane Warne held onto a regulation edge from Kevin Pietersen’s bat on the final day of that unforgettable 2005 Ashes series.
It's for that reason I’m sure Australia would have loved the services of the Hazlewood for the final, a tall seamer who has a fine record in England but has been plagued by injury in the last 12 months.
However, PAT CUMMINS is fully fit, and he fits the bill perfectly when it comes to identifying a fast bowler who should thrive at the Oval. Tall and strong, Cummins bowls at a consistently good pace, as a brutal bouncer will confirm, and he generally seams the ball with unwavering accuracy on that fourth stump line. I certainly have him down as a better fit for this ground than Starc, a genuine swing bowler, and the shorter-in-stature Boland who might be better suited to Headingley and Edgbaston.
I’m not paying much attention to the fact Cummins’ five wickets here in 2019 came at 30.20, given that match was the fifth in a long Ashes series in which Australia’s strike bowler delivered more overs than any other seamer on either side. If there’s anything in the surface, we know that Cummins will exploit it, particularly here. If not, he can usually be relied on to get the job done in any conditions. His 46 wickets against India in only 12 Tests confirms that.
As such, I’ll be backing Cummins in the Man of the Match market – a bet made more appealing given Australia would appear worthy favourites.
Happy memories could inspire Rohit back to his best
Nevertheless, I want a second string to my bow here and if India are to defy the odds and come out on top, I think they’ll need something special from their own captain, ROHIT SHARMA, Man of the Match against England on this ground in 2021 thanks to an outstanding second-innings 127.
There are clearly a few more question marks about Rohit than Cummins, given he has spent the last few months captaining and opening the batting for Mumbai Indians in the IPL. His form in that competition wasn’t as strong as he would have hoped for, but this is a class act who to my mind is the best Test opener in the world.
A Test average of 45.66 illustrates his capabilities, but since moving up to open the batting in this format, Rohit has averaged 52.76. In the Test series between India and England on these shores in 2021, he produced a masterclass in how to open the batting against the Dukes ball, finishing with 345 runs from seven innings at 57.50.
Rohit left the ball brilliantly throughout that series, frustrating the likes of Robinson and James Anderson, before cashing in when they erred too straight. His driving was excellent, though less expansive than we see from him in white-ball cricket, with a real emphasis on playing the ball late with checked drives, rather than the flamboyant ones he would play elsewhere. His back-foot game, particularly to the really short stuff, is always excellent.
You’d have to go back a long time to find an example of a visiting opening batsman playing as well in England, particularly against three seamers in Robinson, Anderson and Chris Woakes whose records at home are incredibly strong.
My general rule of thumb in Test cricket in England is to avoid opening batsmen, given what a tough business it is facing the new Dukes ball, but Rohit is a special player and the fact he played so well at the Oval on his last visit – and that he has four fifties from six ODIs on this ground – means I can’t let him go unbacked this week.
The general 7/2 about Rohit top-scoring in India’s first innings is too big to turn down, and I can’t resist a second dart in the Man of the Match market at 14/1. If India are to win this week, I suspect Rohit will be their man.
Finally, the Australia top batsman market is now looking more competitive than it did a year or so ago. No longer is it a fistfight between Smith and MARNUS LABUSCHAGNE, with Usman Khawaja reborn since coming back into the side as opener and Travis Head making the number five spot his own with consistently big runs.
Nevertheless, you’d be hard pressed not to have been taken with Labuschagne’s form for Glamorgan in the past few weeks. Two fine hundreds confirm his game is in good working order and as we are loathe to take on the likes of Smith and Khawaja, backing the number three to make another century is the way to go.
Labuschagne already has 10 Test hundreds and 15 more half-centuries from only 37 matches, and plenty more should be in the offing this summer. When he gets in, he tends to go big, and the 5/1 available about him making another three-figure score against an Indian attack shorn of Bumrah is very appealing without having to worry a jot about how his fellow Aussie batsmen perform.
Preview posted at 1415 BST on 05/06/2023
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