Ashes latest: Who replaces Jack Leach after England spinner ruled out of series?

Sunday's news that Jack Leach has been ruled out of the Ashes with a stress fracture to his lower back is another cruel blow to a career that has been blighted by illness or injury, but to miss a series as big as this one at a time when his stock has never been higher is desperate bad luck.

For England, it is potentially a huge speed bump on their road to regaining the Ashes. Nobody is arguing that Leach is James Anderson or Joe Root, but spin has been a major hole in this team ever since Graeme Swann retired and one of the biggest success stories of Ben Stokes’ captaincy so far has been his handling of Leach.

Under Stokes’ tutelage, Leach has been given the backing to grow and blossom to a point where he has unequivocally become England’s number one spin bowler. No longer on the fringes, no bowler has delivered more overs for Stokes since he became captain, and no bowler has provided him with more wickets. In all, Leach has claimed 45 wickets in 13 matches.

His absence will be keenly felt, for all Australia don't fear him like they did Swann, and his impact in the dressing room as one of the most popular members of the group is something England will clearly miss.

So where do they turn now?

With Stokes not bowling against Ireland last week, we don’t exactly know the current state of his battered left knee, but it's patently obvious that it's not good. One suspects he’ll need to be carried out of the firing line on his shield when the Ashes starts and the crucial passages of play come, but in between those clutch moments, he will need to mind himself and let others do the hard yards as much as possible.

That’s why it is so important, even in a five-man attack, to have a reliable spinner who can be trusted to do the job – particularly if and when England opt to select veterans Stuart Broad and James Anderson in the same XI. In the case of Anderson, England won’t want to burn him out too early in the midst of what is an absurd schedule, so banking on spin at some stage will be crucial. Australia will be doing the same with Nathan Lyon.

It's for that reason why I don’t think Will Jacks or Rehan Ahmed are viable options. Theoretically, Jacks and Ahmed are the men in possession having featured in the winter series win in Pakistan, but although both men claimed five-wicket hauls in that series, they were very much playing as support acts to Leach.

Ahmed only played one match in that series, the last game which was also his Test debut, and six wickets from six Division Two County Championship appearances for Leicestershire this summer would suggest he still has much to learn – which is as it should be for an 18-year-old who has lots of time to grow into the cricketer he will hopefully become. As for Jacks, he has only played three times in the County Championship this season, taking two wickets.

"Ali currently averages 64.65 with the ball against Australia who have similarly reduced his once-dangerous batting to a shadow of its best."

It would take a huge leap of faith to suggest either is ready to be England’s frontline spinner in an Ashes series at home, and it’s a similar story with Matt Parkinson who acquitted himself well when debuting as a concussion substitute for Leach – coincidentally at Lord’s – last summer but has found himself unable to command a place in Lancashire’s starting XI this year.

Having been a big Dom Bess fan a few years ago, I would be surprised if his form for Yorkshire was strong enough to force his way back into the fold, while I find the calls for Moeen Ali’s return frankly outrageous.

Aside from the fact that Moeen no longer plays any red-ball cricket, his form at the recent IPL with bat and ball was moderate and certainly didn’t suggest a man who will celebrate his 36th birthday in the middle of the first Test is finally ready to crack Australia. Ali currently averages 64.65 with the ball against Australia who have similarly reduced his once-dangerous batting to a shadow of its best. This should be a complete non-starter.

A more plausible left-field alternative would be Yorkshire's Adil Rashid who might just thrive under Stokes’ aggressive, empowering captaincy. Rashid has grown into the best limited-overs spinner England has ever produced, and while his Test exploits have never scaled those heady heights, there is little doubting his quality.

Having retired from Tests a long time ago, Rashid made a sensational return to Test cricket in 2018 when playing his part in a significant series win over India at home. He went on to tour Sri Lanka and the West Indies that winter and though things petered out thereafter, he has remained a huge force in white-ball cricket.

Eoin Morgan’s captaincy was the brains behind all of that, and I see Stokes cut from a similar cloth. Both implore their players to take the game on, asking the batsmen to attack and the bowlers to hunt wickets. Morgan never asked for tight overs from Rashid, just wickets in the middle overs. Stokes, I’m sure, would do the same.

Maybe we expected too much from Rashid in his previous cracks at Test cricket, but he still took 60 wickets in 19 matches at an average of 39.83. Those numbers aren’t a million miles from what Leach has returned in the last 12 months.

And where Rashid would undoubtedly hold the advantage over Leach is against the tail. Without Jofra Archer – and it’s hard to see Mark Wood playing more than three matches in the series, given the tight schedule – England will need to be able to dismiss Australia’s lower order cheaply. It’s been an age-old problem for England over the years, after Anderson and co have done the early damage with the new ball but don’t quite have the pace to blow away those tailenders in the same way Pat Cummins and Mitchell Starc can . But leg spinners tend to do the trick against the lower order, and Rashid did just that against India in 2018.

Perhaps that’s all England will need from their spinner this summer, but it will be an important role, nonetheless. It would certainly be an attacking move very much fitting the ethos of England’s way of thinking, but whether Rashid and his troublesome shoulder see things that way remains to be seen.

And if England don’t see Rashid as the answer, or he doesn’t, Liam Dawson would seem like the obvious choice. A terrific cricketer who has been around countless England squads for a number of years, Dawson was actually Joe Root’s number one spinner when he took over the captaincy reins in 2017.

His Test career only lasted three matches, but he has never let anyone down and has turned in plenty of solid displays in the shorter formats format for England, without ever looking like a huge attacking threat. He can bat, too, as a Test best of 66 not out and 11 First Class hundreds confirm. A left arm finger spinner, he isn’t too dissimilar to Leach at all, and he would seemingly fit into the squad very well.

But one suspects he wouldn’t necessarily be a Ben Stokes pick, either. He didn’t make the cut for the Test squad for Pakistan and if Stokes is wanting the most attacking option in England, it’s hard to argue that is Dawson. If England are wanting a safe pair of hands, however, and a very fine cricketer, they might not find anyone better.

Whichever direction England turn, this is a big call and is sure to have huge ramifications for the Ashes.