Old enemies England and Australia meet in a key clash at the T20 World Cup on Saturday and Richard Mann is backing Eoin Morgan's side to come out on top.
Cricket tips: Australia v England, October 30
4pts England to hit the most sixes at 5/6 (General)
2pts Dawid Malan top England batsman at 5/1 (Sky Bet)
1pt Mark Wood Man of the Match at 20/1 (General)
England far stronger but toss bias a danger
Some misjudged words from Australia Test captain Tim Paine have already set the tone for a tempestuous Ashes series and now, with just over a month before the first Test in Brisbane, old foes England and Australia will face off in a crucial Group-1 clash at the T20 World Cup on Saturday.
Victory for England would go a long way to securing their place in the semi-finals, potentially as Group 1 winners, while Australia will have similar aspirations having beaten South Africa and Sri Lanka already.
While many are predicting a closely-fought encounter, I don’t see it that way unless the now staggering toss bias in favour of the chaser proves such a leveller that Australia are able to bat second and put England’s bowling attack under pressure with the aid of heavy dew, a factor that has shaped many of the IPL and early World Cup matches in the UAE.
All things being equal, I struggle to see Australia competing with England in this format in these conditions and were it not for the toss bias, I would be advising a 3pt bet on England from the outset.
In sum, I think England are a different class to Australia in this form of the game and fully expect their batting to have too many gears, too much power and too much depth – just as was the case in the semi-finals of the 50-over World Cup in 2019.
Back England's power-hitters
While Australia’s top order has had its problems of late, Jason’s Roy typically brazen 61 against Bangladesh came in a good partnership with Dawid Malan. With Jos Buttler and Jonny Bairstow also looking in fine touch, the omens are good for England.
Another potential problem for Australia is the pedestrian pace Steve Smith bats at in this format, meaning there is the very real potential for Glenn Maxwell and Marcus Stoinis to be left with too much heavy lifting to do in the middle order.
Under Eoin Morgan, England have never allowed themselves to fall into that trap.
Australia’s bowling has more going for it and in Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins and Josh Hazlewood, they boast a fine trio of pace bowlers. But England aren’t short in that department, with Chris Woakes providing swing and craft with the new ball, Tymal Mills excellent variety at the death, and raw pace from Mark Wood if he is called upon. With Moeen Ali and Adil Rashid bowling brilliantly in tandem, England have the advantage in terms of spin, too.
With the prevailing toss bias enough to put me off placing a sizeable wager on England before the start, were Australia to bat first and post a sizeable total, then might be the time to get involved on England.
While avoiding the outright market for now, I have much more confidence in playing England to hit the MOST SIXES IN THE MATCH – especially considering they are 4/6 to win the match.
England hit four maximums in their run chase of 125 against Bangladesh, while Australia only managed three when chasing down 155 against Sri Lanka. When requiring 55 to beat the West Indies, England still had time to notch one six. Australia couldn't even manage one when running down a victory target of 119 against South Africa.
This market looks a total mismatch and 5/6 might just represent the best bet of the weekend.
Malan the man for Morgan's men
While Buttler was my pick for top England tournament batsman, the one circumstance when I’m inclined to look elsewhere is against Australia’s pace-heavy attack. That's not to say Buttler won’t score runs against Australia. In fact, his record against Australia is strong.
However, I think the one man even more suited to this opposition is the aforementioned DAWID MALAN.
The Yorkshire number three is still the number one ranked T20 batsman in the world on the back of a string of brilliant performances in the shortest format that has seen him build an impressive record: 1,151 runs at an average of 44.26 with one hundred and nine fifties. Though often criticised for his sluggish starts, Malan’s strike-rate in T20I’s is 138.50.
Despite such strong numbers, Malan’s place for the World Cup was widely debated because of his obvious preference for fast bowling on quick pitches. Having played lots of cricket in his early years in South Africa, it is little surprise that Malan boasts such a fine back-foot game. Scoring quickly against spin on slow, low surfaces like the ones on offer in the UAE comes less naturally to him.
England’s loyalty is admirable and, on balance, understandable: Malan is a fine player and discarding one as good as him on the eve of the tournament, or indeed in the middle of it, would have made no sense.
It’s not easy to see him thriving here in the same way a Buttler or Bairstow might, but the good players generally find a way and I think Australia represents a good opportunity for Malan to make his mark.
With so much pace in their attack, and a leg spinner in Adam Zampa who shouldn’t really challenge his outside edge, Malan has the game to thrive against Australia and the fact he has made two half-centuries in five T20I’s against this opposition only serves to enforce that point.
Ordinarily, Malan would be top of most lists in the top England batsman market given his excellent record and clearly-defined role to bat through the innings while others around him take more risks.
It works perfectly for bettors in England and while he has so far gone under the radar at this World Cup due to his perceived unsuitability to these conditions, I suspect he will be much more at home against Australia’s pace cartel on Saturday.
I’ll be backing him accordingly.
For Australia, I had firmly intended to put Mitchell Marsh up, but his surprising demotion to number five against Sri Lanka tempers enthusiasm and I’d prefer to sit this one out.
Despite captain Aaron Finch suggesting Marsh would be locked in at number three for the duration of the tournament, Australia have seemingly had a swift rethink and any pretensions of taking the muscular all-rounder at bigger prices than David Warner, Finch and Smith suddenly makes less appeal.
Pace ace Wood makes Man of the Match appeal
Instead, I'll finish by advising a small bet in the Man of the Match market on MARK WOOD, despite the likelihood he will again find himself carrying drinks.
Having impressed in taking five wickets in two warm-up matches against India and New Zealand, some ankle discomfort meant he was forced to sit out the opening Super 12 win over the West Indies before England opted to retain the same XI against Bangladesh.
Morgan might well decide to do the same again here, but including Wood's extra pace – possibly at the expense of Chris Jordan – would be a sensible move against Australia, given Warner’s struggles against Anrich Nortje in the IPL and Wood himself only a year ago or so.
Glenn Maxwell is another who can find things tough against extreme pace and given that bowlers continue to dominate the Man of the Match markets – at the time of writing eight of the nine Super 12 Man of the Match awards have been won by bowlers – taking one of England’s key weapons who could well shape the match in the powerplay is a must.
If England don’t give Wood the nod, stakes are refunded anyway, but I can’t let the Durham speedster line up without carrying my money.
Published at 1200 BST on 29/10/21
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