Cricket betting tips and preview: England and New Zealand set for crunch T20 World Cup semi-final clash
England and New Zealand meet in the T20 World Cup semi-finals on Wednesday afternoon – Richard Mann is expecting a close contest and has three bets in his preview.
Cricket tips: England v New Zealand, November 10
1pt James Neesham to be Man of the Match at 25/1 (Betway)
1pt Adil Rashid to be Man of the Match at 16/1 (Betway)
1pt Devon Conway top New Zealand batsman at 9/2 (General)
It pays a huge compliment to England’s limited-overs cricket that despite losing Ben Stokes and Jofra Archer before the T20 World Cup began, then to see Tymal Mills and Jason Roy ruled out of the competition in the last week, the 50-over World Cup champions are now only two victories away from ruling the world once more.
England are an incredible white-ball side, arguably the greatest ever assembled. They are captained by a pioneer of white-ball cricket, someone whose calm and relaxed approach has liberated his players and allowed them to flourish into a champion outfit. Eoin Morgan has taken this side, and the game, to new heights, and he will now be eyeing another final.
Great teams overcome adversity. Morgan’s England have done that many times: Alex Hales’ drugs ban on the eve of the 2019 50-over World Cup an obvious example and again here with the loss of several influential players. Last summer, the whole of England’s first-choice 50-over squad were forced to self-isolate and miss the series with Pakistan. A hastily-assembled replacement team captained by an injured Stokes would go on to win the series 3-0.
But the string will only stretch so far, the resources dig so deep, the resolve last so long. After a faultless start to the tournament, England’s weak spots – and they do exist – were exposed by South Africa on Saturday and for my money, New Zealand are the worst draw that England could have been given.
Injury-ravaged England must change plan again
Team meetings across the world – be it in franchise cricket or international T20 cricket – will focus on match-ups and I firmly believe that New Zealand have favourable match-ups throughout the two expected starting XIs.
Much of England’s success in this tournament has been driven by excellent powerplays with the ball, Chris Woakes and Moeen Ali consistently making early inroads.
Woakes went the distance against South Africa and though the surface in Abu Dhabi promises more pace and bounce than Sharjah, it’s when the ball has swung in Dubai that the Warwickshire man has been at his most dangerous. Where New Zealand’s two swing bowlers, Trent Boult and Tim Southee, have excelled with Plan-B throughout the tournament, Woakes will need to prove he can do the same if he can’t make the ball move sideways.
Woakes is a class act and might well find a way, but he’s never the same attacking threat without lateral movement, while I wouldn't be totally surprised if Moeen didn’t bowl at all in this match. In fact, I’d be staggered if Morgan opened the bowling with him. Moeen has enjoyed an excellent tournament; claiming seven wickets with an economy rate of only 5.50, and taking 4-63 in 11 powerplay overs. Those are excellent numbers, but he has been helped by the likes of the West Indies and Sri Lanka having left-hander heavy top orders.
Moeen didn’t bowl against Australia given the threat posed by the right-handed Aaron Finch and with New Zealand’s top three comprising of three righties, and Martin Guptill sure to fancy a piece of Moeen, Morgan might be forced into a re-think.
The problem is, in the absence of Stokes, Moeen is the fifth bowler in this line-up and Morgan needs to get four overs out of him or Liam Livingstone. The latter has done an admirable job when called upon so far, but Bangladesh and Australia were in tatters when he was brought into the attack in those matches and should New Zealand start well, they are sure to target the part-timer. I suspect Moeen will have to get through a good chunk of his overs, but how and when Morgan uses him will be fascinating.
Should Morgan prefer to use his seamers in the powerplay, will that mean the death-specific role Mark Wood carried out as a like-for-like replacement for Mills against South Africa is abandoned? It would seem sensible, but that will mean Chris Jordan won’t be seen too much until later in the innings, which would be a shame given how well he has bowled in a more attacking role than usual with the newer ball.
As for the batting, Roy is a huge loss. Not just because of his runs and the muscular, imposing manner in which he makes them, but because it means Jonny Bairstow might now have to return to top of the order. That in itself is no bad thing, but Dawid Malan and Morgan have yet to really fire in the UAE and Bairstow's presence in the middle order would have been of comfort to his colleagues struggling for runs. Above all else, it's another reshuffle Morgan would have preferred not to make.
Kiwi bowling depth a huge asset but beware Buttler
One match-up that isn’t favourable for New Zealand is spin duo Mitchell Santner and Ish Sodhi up against an England top seven featuring three left handers. The left-handed Najibullah Zadran gave Santner, in particular, the run around as New Zealand cruised past Afghanistan, but the make-up of New Zealand’s XI – featuring five frontline bowlers, plus a very handy all-rounder in James Neesham – accounts for such scenarios and the latter stepped up with four superb overs on Sunday as the spinners were able to be relieved from their duties. I do think that extra bowling depth gives New Zealand a key edge.
New Zealand can’t compete with England in batting power. New Zealand’s bowling is well-drilled and very smart, their fielding peerless, but if this turns into an arm wrestle with the bat, England will win. The numbers tell us that; Jos Buttler, Bairstow and Moeen prove it.
New Zealand’s strategy will be to bat solidly, hoping Guptill and or Neesham can add fireworks at the start and end of the innings respectively, and back themselves with the ball and in the field to do the rest. Ordinarily, that strategy probably wouldn’t work – and if Abu Dhabi offers up a flat pitch of the type we haven’t really seen here as yet, it might backfire – but when the par score for this ground at the World Cup is only 144, teams like New Zealand are in business.
We must remember that those numbers take into account some low scores from some very moderate sides, but even so, the data suggests batting hasn’t been a walk in the park here in the last few weeks, and the likes of Kane Williamson and Devon Conway, with their tight techniques and excellent shot placement, will be hopeful that brains triumph over brawn on Wednesday.
I do think this ground promises to suit New Zealand better than anywhere else in the UAE. New-ball swing in Dubai would have pleased Boult and Southee, but the Kiwis don’t want to be facing Woakes in such conditions, while I always felt the smaller dimensions of Sharjah were against the likes of Williamson and Conway who prefer to work the gaps and pick up plenty of twos, rather than constantly trying to find the boundary. Sharjah doesn’t really allow for that, and I’m hopeful New Zealand can produce their best cricket on this ground.
That's not to downplay the mammoth task ahead of them: England are a terrific side, even with so many injuries to contend with, but potential strategy changes with the ball, and a reshuffle in the batting order following Roy’s departure, asks more questions of them. They will need to be very, very good if they are to answer them again.
I’ve tried to be as objective as I can here, conscious of the fact New Zealand were a strong fancy in my T20 World Antepost Angle column and the headline bet in my pre-tournament outright preview. For those not holding 9/1 and 7/1 slips, I understand the reluctance to get involved now – at a shorter price and with England a fearsome proposition in the semi-finals.
But on balance, I still like their chances and while taking 6/4 against England probably wouldn’t lure me in, I think 4/1 for them to win the tournament still makes some appeal. The toss bias for the chaser in Abu Dhabi is far less significant than in Dubai – which is clearly a good thing for Wednesday – and should the Kiwis make it through to the final, 4/1 backers, or indeed 9/1 and 7/1 backers, might then consider hedging their bets before the toss has its say at a venue where heavy dew has been such a big factor.
Man of the Match market worth investment
In Wednesday’s side markets, I’m going to split stakes on a player from either side to be Man of the Match.
The aforementioned JAMES NEESHAM did these pages a huge favour when returning a 16/1 winner in this market on Friday, with his quickfire 35 not out showcasing his batting ability at number six and his crucial breakthrough with the ball highlighting his all-round ability. As I’ve already alluded to, there are reasons to think Neesham’s bowling will be crucial against England, and given how well he bowled at the death against Afghanistan, there are enough pointers to suggest he could have a big game. I’m happy to take the 25/1 on offer with Betway.
For all I prefer New Zealand at the prices, England are still favourites and, as such, adding one of their star men to the Man of the Match staking plan makes sense.
If England are to win, the red-hot Buttler seems a likely candidate, but with bowlers faring so well in this market at the World Cup, I prefer ADIL RASHID who has been outstanding in this tournament in picking up eight wickets with his attacking wrist spin. His battle with Williamson and Conway could well shape the game, and if he comes out on top, he might well be Man of the Match.
The aforementioned DEVON CONWAY presents a real conundrum given he’s generally batting too low at number four to be backed with confidence, but that we know what an outstanding batsman he is. England know that, too, given his exploits against them in Test cricket last summer. Conway’s record in this format is similarly strong – he currently averages 50.54 from 19 T20Is – and you couldn’t fail to be impressed with the ease with which he nullified Rashid Khan on Sunday for his silky 36 not out which took New Zealand to victory.
Conway really should be opening the batting, but New Zealand prefer to have his quality in the middle order, and 9/2 in the top Kiwi batsman market is big enough for a high-class operator who appears to be working nicely into top form.
This should be a brilliant semi-final played out between two very strong but markedly different sides. It could quite easily be the final, and in fact, the winner will probably go all the way on Sunday.
Posted at 1240 GMT on 09/11/21
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