Trent Boult has enjoyed a strong T20 World Cup campaign
Trent Boult has enjoyed a strong T20 World Cup campaign

Cricket betting tips and preview: Australia and New Zealand to lock horns in T20 World Cup final


Close rivals Australia and New Zealand will meet in the T20 World Cup final in Dubai on Sunday afternoon – Richard Mann has picks in the Man of the Match market at 20/1 and 18/1.


Cricket tips: Australia v New Zealand, November 14

1pt Trent Boult to be Man of the Match at 20/1 (Betway)

1pt Josh Hazlewood to be Man of the Match at 18/1 (Betfair, Paddy Power)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook


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The T20 World Cup final between Australia and New Zealand promises a fascinating final act to a tournament that has been the epitome of slow burner, bursting into life with two dramatic semi-finals which produced a pair of breathtaking run chases.

Australia looked dead and buried when slipping to 96-5 in pursuit of 177 to win against Pakistan on Thursday, but first Marcus Stoinis and then Matthew Wade (41* from 17 balls) defied the odds and doubters to haul their side over the winning line. In the process, the strong bias for the chaser in Dubai – which now stands at 11 from 12 World Cup games – struck again.

Twenty-four hours earlier, New Zealand pulled off something even more remarkable when downing England in a thrilling finish in Abu Dubai. This time Daryl Mitchell was the hero as he carried his bat after James Neesham had turned a labouring chase on its head with a brutal 27 from only 11 balls.

Regular followers of these pages will have hopefully followed the advice in the Antepost Angle and outright preview columns and taken the advised 9/1 and 7/1 about New Zealand in the outright market, and now looks the time to cover those bets with that toss bias in Dubai not only disappointing, but also meaning bettors simply can’t leave what is patently a crucial toss to chance having come this far. With my faith in New Zealand still strong, I won’t be doing anything too drastic in terms of staking, but I want to guarantee something for my efforts and will be getting my stake back and a little more before the toss on Sunday.

All things being equal, I would still have confidence in New Zealand who have not put a foot wrong since losing their opening match against Pakistan in Sharjah. That ground was never going to play to their strengths, but they have been very good since and in beating England in such a high-pressure clash, they have certainly justified their place in the final. In fact, were I not already involved at much bigger prices, I wouldn’t have much trouble in making a case for the Kiwis at 11/8.

Daryl Mitchell in action against England
Daryl Mitchell goes big against England

Nevertheless, news that Devon Conway will miss the final having fractured his hand when punching his bat in frustration at getting out on Wednesday is a hammer-blow to New Zealand. Conway has quickly become New Zealand’s best white-ball batsman and as demonstrated by his classy 46 against England on Wednesday, this brilliant player of spin provided real quality at number four and the versatility of breaking up so many right-handers with a southpaw. Expect Tim Seifert to slot into the starting XI, and he is an upgrade with the gloves – but he has huge shoes to fill with the bat.

New Zealand batting takes a hit but Boult remains key weapon

In Conway’s absence, even more responsibility will fall on the shoulders of captain Kane Williamson who has shown signs of his best at this tournament without kicking on. He’ll need to do that now, especially with Martin Guptill not quite looking the force of old, but Williamson is a world-class performer with the game to negate and then overcome Australia’s strong pace attack.

Mitchell’s fruitful tournament and his breakthrough innings on Wednesday gives hope that this destructive opening batsman can ride on that wave, and if he and Williamson can take care of Josh Hazlewood’s early burst and set things up for their teammates, we’ve seen enough from Neesham and Glenn Phillips to know that ‘big-boy power’ is there waiting for the later overs. The issue is that if Hazlewood and Mitchell Starc do make early inroads, New Zealand might struggle to rescue themselves like they did against England, without Conway to call upon and with Mitchell Santner batting as high as number seven.

New Zealand’s ploy of picking five outright bowlers, plus Neesham, has worked perfectly so far, but it does leave their batting vulnerable if they suffer early casualties. That strategy is in complete contrast to Australia who have Wade coming in at seven and Pat Cummins and Starc at eight and nine. The downside to this is that Australia are banking on their four frontline bowlers – albeit four very good ones – doing the bulk of the damage and allowing Aaron Finch to get four overs out of off spinner Glenn Maxwell and Mitchell Marsh. With New Zealand boasting a battery of right-handers, the onus will be on them to take down Maxwell and expose Marsh and Australia’s lack of a genuine fifth bowler. It’s a match-up New Zealand simply have to make the most of.

The other key match-up is the one between TRENT BOULT and David Warner and Finch. With his high pace and late inswing, Shaheen Afridi made short work of Finch in Thursday’s semi-final and came close to dismissing Warner and Marsh in a terrific opening burst. Fellow left-arm paceman, Boult, is cut from the same cloth, and though maybe not quite as quick, he is highly skilled and could well decide the outcome of the match in the powerplay if getting the new ball to talk. Of all the battles to play out in the 40 overs on Sunday, the one between Boult and Australia’s top order might be the most important of all.

Australia and New Zealand will contest the T20 World Cup final
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As such, Boult has to be of interest in the Man of the Match market with the 20/1 on offer with Betway very appealing. Boult has enjoyed a fine tournament already – claiming 11 wickets from six matches with an economy rate of 6.54 – and Dubai has offered enough swing in the early part of the powerplay overs to suggest he could be in business. If New Zealand are to prevail that might need to be the case, with Boult the obvious man to take advantage.

As so emphatically showcased against Pakistan, Australia’s batting depth does give them a little breathing space if they happen to lose early wickets, and I think we might see more runs than we have witnessed throughout the World Cup and IPL. While the average first-innings total at this ground at the World Cup is only 127, the pitch served up for the semi-final on Thursday was a good one with over 350 runs scored. It was very similar in the IPL, when batting was hard work throughout but a fresh strip was unveiled for the final as Chennai Super Kings amassed 192-3 before Kolkata Knight Riders made 165-9 in response.

The markets have been trimmed up accordingly overnight, but Betfair go 5/2 for both teams to make 170+ runs and that looks fair enough. Given the heavy toss bias for the chaser, the 3/1 Sky Bet are offering for both teams to score to 160+ runs and the team batting second to win is sure to have plenty of takers, too.

The final pointer on the runs markets is for in-running punters to hold their nerve in the first innings and don’t be afraid to back a big finish. We’ve seen in the last few days just what power both teams possess in their ranks and in the expectation of a good pitch once the new ball has been negotiated, scoring in excess of 60 from the last five overs is not out of the question for either side – even allowing for the fact we are looking at two attacks featuring some fine bowlers, backed up by wonderful fielding sides.

Hazlewood new ball skills hard to ignore

Having been keen to play the Man of the Match market throughout the tournament as bowlers continue to shape matches in the powerplay and be rewarded at the presentation, and given this is clearly a choice affair, particularly before the toss, I can’t finish without adding an Australian bowler to the staking plan.

Josh Hazlewood has been outstanding in the T20 World Cup
Josh Hazlewood has impressed at the T20 World Cup

I’ve already discussed the possibility of Boult’s opening spell in the powerplay having the potential to decide the match, and Australia will be hoping for similar from JOSH HAZLEWOOD who has been a favourite of mine all tournament, with mixed results. Despite a poor showing against Pakistan, Hazlewood still has eight wickets in the competition with his economy rate a very respectable 7.95.

As expected from such a fine bowler in Test cricket, Hazlewood has generally been very good with the new ball in the powerplay, bowling that nagging line and length that could easily prove too much for Guptill and Mitchell if he can exact any movement from the surface. At the other end, Starc has been wayward with the new ball, so Hazlewood could be the man to set up the game for Australia.

I’ve argued for most of the tournament that bowlers have been favoured in this market, despite the betting refusing to catch up, and though a better pitch for the final would give batsmen a greater chance of grabbing the headlines, like in both semi-finals, I’m keen to stick with my plan of attack when the two bowlers in question are such high-class operators with the new ball.

Posted at 1600 GMT on 12/11/21


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