Get the latest in-play betting advice from Richard Mann ahead of the fourth day of the third Ashes Test at Headingley.
Day four betting update
Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook
England fans might have had their patience tested throughout much of Saturday as rain delayed the start of day four until after tea, but by the close of play the Ashes was officially back on.
Thanks to Chris Woakes, Stuart Broad and Mark Wood, who took the final six Australian wickets for less than a hundred runs, England were able to leave themselves needing 251 runs to win the Test match.
With Ben Duckett and Zak Crawley both unbeaten and reducing that target by 27 runs, England are now 2/7 with Sky Bet.
Crucially, Sunday's forecast is largely good, with any rain set to fall later in the day. England, who did their damage under grey skies, will be hoping the anticipated conditions prove altogether more favourable for batting.
Sky Bet offer 16/1 that captain Ben Stokes hits the winning runs, but England's openers, plus Harry Brook and Joe Root will all hope their talisman is not required this time.
Day three betting update
1pt Pat Cummins and Scott Boland to both take 3+ second innings wickets at 7/2 (Betfair Sportsbook, Paddy Power)
Another enthralling day of Ashes cricket finished with honours even in the third Test at Headingley, Australia leading by 142 runs with six second-innings wickets remaining.
Australia will fancy that if they can double that advantage and add another 20 runs on top, they will be in pole position to wrap up the series in Leeds. England will know that they are only a couple of wickets from an Australian tail that was blown away by Mark Wood in the first innings.
There is much to consider from here. Ollie Robinson seems unlikely to bowl again in the match, though his presence on the field for much of Friday means he could, should be recover from the back spasms he suffered on Thursday.
And then there is Mark Wood, playing his first red-ball match since December. Though he again bowled with great heart on Friday, carefully managed by Ben Stokes, he was slightly down on pace from day one. That is perfectly understandable and he simply needs more rest than England's weak batting has afforded him since he led his teammates from the field on Thursday afternoon. Welcome to Stuart Broad and James Anderson's world. Just how much Wood will have left in the tank should Travis Head and Mitchell Marsh get going again remains to be seen.
Wood will have been grateful that Moeen Ali was able to wheel away from one end for the entirety of the final session on Friday, picking up the key wickets of Marnus Labuschagne and Steve Smith, but one feels that past Australian sides with more of a ruthless streak would have taken Moeen down and out of the attack, thus leaving Stokes' bowling resources more stretched. Perhaps the Australians were happy to crawl along at 2.46 runs per over – it at least meant they didn't have to face much more of Wood, anyway.
With it looking unlikely that Robinson will bowl again, and Wood likely tiring, England will be even more hopeful they can wrap up Australia's seconds innings quickly. And that's where a pretty poor weather forecast for Saturday comes into calculations. It should mean England don't have to spend all day in the field and when they are able to bowl, it could well be with the assistance of favourable overhead conditions.
Currently trading at 2.34, a couple of quick wickets would see England quickly move into odds-on territory, but at the time of writing the forecast for the rest of the game isn't too flash and talk about England's penchant for chasing needs to factor in batting last under damp, northern clouds against an attack as good as this Australian one.
As I argued before the series began, who gets the best of conditions could well decide the course of some of the matches and I certainly think that could be the case here. England need unsettled weather on Saturday, to prevent them from spending the day in the field and to offer some assistance to the seamers in the air. But then it will be their turn to bat and going on what we saw on Friday, there isn't too much appetite for the fight when things heat up – Stokes and Root apart.
I haven't got a strong view on the current match odds either way, other than the surprising streak of patriotism that has reared its ugly head in me since Lord's.
What I will say about the match odds is that they are sure to flip again, and again. It's been very much the way with this England side since Stokes took charge at the beginning of last summer and throughout this series. We have seen so much fluctuation in the match odds as the games have consistently swung one way and then the other. There is so more of this to come, and trading opportunities aplenty.
When England do come to bat again, rookie off spinner Todd Murphy might have to do more bowling than in the first innings, but England are well set-up to deal with him. Stokes played him easily in the first innings, as did Moeen, while Ben Duckett is excellent against spin. I suspect Murphy have even less joy against England's right-handers.
As such, the tireless Pat Cummins is sure to have to do much of the heavy lifting. Sky Bet go 5/1 about Cummins claiming another five-wicket haul to add to his six wickets in the first innings, while 8/1 about Scott Boland could look a big price if the clouds roll in and the ball starts to nip about. Boland was excellent when that happened in England's second innings at Edgbaston and he looks every inch an old-style Headingley bowler.
Alternatively, Betfair Sporstbook and Paddy Power offer 7/2 that BOLAND AND CUMMINS BOTH TAKE 3+ SECOND INNINGS WICKETS. That looks a safer bet for a surface that has been better to bat on than the scores would so far suggest, but will be much harder work once the weather turns.
Day two betting update
1pt 110+ runs in the first session at 6/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt England to score 350+ first innings runs at 7/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt England to score 400+ first innings runs at 3/1 (Sky Bet)
Another high-octane day of Ashes cricket saw England mount an impressive fightback with the ball after Mitchell Marsh had threatened to take the game away from them with a stunning century at Headingley.
Marsh was one of two men making their first appearances of the series and he and Mark Wood stole the show, Marsh’s ton matched by five wickets for the Englishman who bowled with searing pace throughout, on occasions topping 96mph.
What Wood’s performance did is disguise the fact that this is an excellent pitch, with pace and carry for the quicks but one that is essentially very good for batting if you can get in and then look to score. Add to the fact that the outfield is lightning fast, and there are runs to be made this week. On a relatively clear day, Australia’s first innings score of 263 was a long way below par.
With a beautiful day forecast for Friday, England should have excellent conditions in which to try and tighten their grip on the match, though losing three late wickets (68-3) in their reply has set them back a little, particularly when you consider their starting XI in Leeds is in theory a batsman light from Lord’s.
Nevertheless, Leeds has been an excellent place to bat for a number of years now, with 180 the bare minimum here in the T20 Blast this season and 200 much more like it this year and last. It’s been just the same in the County Championship, with Yorkshire posting 550-9 declared batting first against Gloucestershire in the last round, before conceding 464 themselves.
The other factor in England’s favour is the absence of Australia’s number one spinner, Nathan Lyon, ruled out of the series with a calf injury picked up at Lord’s, and this is a big test for rookie Todd Murphy who impressed on the recent tour of India but will find the pitches in England offering him significantly less assistance.
England are sure to target Murphy and Headingley isn’t generally an easy place to bowl spin. If they can take him down – and in Joe Root and Jonny Bairstow England have two outstanding players of spin not out overnight – and also ensure they pounce on the inevitable loose balls that are sure to come from Mitchell Starc, they ought to score big and at a good clip on Friday.
As such, I’ll be striking three bets, headed by ENGLAND TO SCORE 350+ FIRST INNINGS RUNS at 7/4, and ENGLAND TO SCORE 400+ FIRST INNINGS RUNS at 3/1 – both with Sky Bet.
- CLICK HERE to back England to score 350+ first innings runs with Sky Bet
- CLICK HERE to back England to score 400+ first innings runs with Sky Bet
With Root looking in good touch as he progressed to 19 not out, Bairstow clearly chomping at the bit, and Ben Stokes due in next on the back of his brilliant hundred at Lord’s, England will fancy their chances of having a good day. After that, the mercurial Moeen Ali is due in at seven, without his chief tormentor, Lyon, to worry about on this occasion, before Chris Woakes and Wood help beef up a much stronger lower order than last week.
On a good pitch and with the weather set fair, backing runs has to be the play, and I’m going to add 110+ RUNS IN THE FIRST SESSION (6/4) to the staking plan, too.
England eased along at 3.57 runs per over before the close, clearly with one eye on tomorrow in the final few overs, but earlier in the day the generally more conservative Australia still managed 91 runs in the first session despite losing four wickets. From Lunch to Tea, they added another 149 runs as Marsh produced the type of innings Bairstow made a habit last summer.
This is a fast-scoring ground when atmospherics don’t weigh the balance of power in the bowler’s favour, and Friday’s forecast suggests sun and big, quick runs will be the order of the day.
More Ashes content:
- Third Test preview
- Has Cummins tarnished his legacy?
- Ashes guide to the grounds: Headingley
- Watch: Cricket Only Bettor podcast
- Paul Krishnamurty's In-play betting masterclass
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling.
Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
