Ashes cricket betting tips: Australia v England second Test preview and best bets

Cricket tips: The Ashes, Australia v England

1pt Mitchell Starc to take 5+ wickets in the first innings at 6/1 (Sky Bet)

0.5pt Mitchell Starc to take 10+ wickets in the match at 14/1 (Betway)

0.5pt Michael Neser top Australia first innings batsman at 40/1 (bet365)

0.5pt Brydon Carse to hit the most England sixes in the first innings at 18/1 (bet365)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Travis Head’s blistering, match-winning hundred in Perth seems like a lifetime ago now but, as the old saying goes, time is a great healer, so perhaps the near two-week break between the first and second Ashes Tests will have done England's players plenty of good.

I certainly think they will have been grateful for a timeout – a new term in primary schools for what used to be known as the naughty step, so my four-year-old daughter informs me. She also assures me she hasn’t yet needed it.

In public, Ben Stokes may argue that his England team didn’t need it, either, but there were plenty of shots from his batting unit in Perth that warranted more than a timeout, or indeed the naughty step. Bring back the birch comes to mind.

But we move on, England bums untanned, to a day-night contest in Brisbane with the pink ball. It's a 4am start time, for those who feel they can just about handle the early start, should they hit the hay straight after Coronation Street.

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I must say, I have found some of the commentary to come out of the England camp regarding pink-ball Tests in recent days quite interesting. Joe Root clearly isn’t much of a fan, while former England fast bowler Stuart Broad last week suggested these games are more of a lottery than the traditional form.

England have lost all three of their previous day-night Tests in Australia, which doesn’t seem like much of a lottery to me.

England were beaten in both day-night Tests on the 2021/2022 tour, in Adelaide and Hobart, and heavily, too, so the switch back to the Gabba in Brisbane may be viewed as a positive, though this ground has hardly been a happy hunting ground for England over the years.

Day-night clues at the Gabba

The Gabba hosted a pink-ball Test match in January, 2024 when batting wasn’t always easy. The West Indies won that match as Shamar Joseph swung and seamed the tourists to a memorable victory, but first-innings scores of 311 and 289-9 declared demonstrates that scoring runs was by no means impossible.

And it should be said, the pitch served up for that particular game was green and offered plenty for the fast bowlers throughout. One would suspect the Australian camp might want something similar this week, having seen England’s frailties with the bat in that first Test, but the money men at Cricket Australia will no doubt be hoping for a full five days and bulging gate receipts.

Moreover, I do think it’s far too easy to fall for the pink ball and assume that it will bend round corners all day long. England fell into that very trap in 2021, opting not to select James Anderson and Stuart Broad on a green-top for the series opener, in Brisbane as it happens, in order to keep their star pair fresh for the subsequent day-night match in Adelaide where they banked on swinging conditions.

As it transpired, Australian batted first and amassed 473-9 declared, winning the match easily and putting themselves on course for another series victory. And we think Bazball can be brainless.

In fact, what you tend to get with the pink ball is good batting conditions in the day – the state of the pitch itself notwithstanding – followed by a much tougher period under lights. More pronounced overheads in Brisbane can also be a factor.

For now, I’m not going to bank on conditions either way and for that reason, I wouldn’t be at all surprised to see England hit back this week.

We saw enough in Perth, in the first innings anyway, to suggest England can cause this Australia side problems and were they to get the best of conditions in Brisbane, perhaps batting in the day when their attacking approach can reap rewards, they do remain capable of doing some damage.

One of the biggest pointers I can take from that 2024 Test here against the West Indies was that batting was tough against the new ball, but that things did very quickly become easier, in daylight, of course.

The West Indies batted first in that game and Joshua Da Silva top scored with 79 from number seven, just pipping 71 from number five Kavem Hodge. When Australia batted, opener Usman Khawaja won the market with 75, but 65 from number seven Alex Carey and 64 not out from Pat Cummins at number nine hints at more value lower down the batting orders this week.

Carey won the top Australia first innings batsman market in Perth with 26, and I don’t think 12/1 for a repeat performance at the Gabba is the worst business in the world.

Take Neser at big odds

However, I’m convinced Australia will seriously consider picking MICHAEL NESER here, given he played in that day-night match against England in Adelaide in 2021 when acquitting himself very well.

Neser is a highly-skilled operator with the ball who could prove deadly under lights, but I’m more interested in his batting this week, as I’m sure the Australian selectors will be.

With Pat Cummins apparently still not fully fit – or at the time of writing at least not in the Australia squad – Australia do look to have long tail, one which was badly exposed in the first innings in Perth when England claimed a handy lead at the halfway mark.

With five First Class hundreds to his name, Neser can claim to be something close to a fully-fledged all-rounder these days and, with a series lead to protect, Australia will be thinking hard about strengthening their batting, for all Neser’s skills with the ball wouldn’t weaken them in that department, either.

I’m happy to take a swing on Neser at 40/1 (bet365). Stakes returned if he doesn’t play.

For England, first Test selection, Brydon Carse, is certainly noted again, along with Gus Atkinson who won the market in the second innings, but I retain hope that if England were to bat first, the top seven will do the job.

Should England bat second and look likely to face a newish ball under lights, I would have to think again.

Pink to make Starc wink

When looking at any day-night Test, the obvious starting point is MITCHELL STARC, a master with the pink ball. In 14 day-night matches, Starc has 81 wickets, the most in the history of the game, at an average of 17.08.

On the back of his ten-wicket haul in Perth, which earned him the Man of the Match award, Starc is only 7/4 for top Australia first innings bowler honours this week.

Starc doesn’t appear to have any secrets from the bookmakers, but the 6/1 with Sky Bet about him taking five wickets in the first innings has legs.

The 35-year-old has five day-night five-wicket hauls to date from 27 bowling innings, but a couple of those can be written off given he had very little bowling to do in the second innings of those games.

And if we go along with the theory that Starc has never bowled better – and adding the wobble seam delivery to his repertoire has clearly taken him to the next level – then it seems fair to expect another bold showing from him in Brisbane.

Furthermore, those past performances have generally come with Cummins and Josh Hazlewood for company, and competition. As was the case in Perth, Starc will be Australia’s main man at the Gabba.

I’m taking the 6/1.

Betway are offering 14/1 about the left-arm paceman taking 10 wickets in the match, which he did in Perth, so I'll add that one to the staking plan to smaller stakes.

As was the case in Perth, when Starc took seven wickets in the first innings, there could be an innings where Starc really fills his boots, especially if he gets a crack with the new ball under lights.

Six appeal from Carse

Keep an eye out for my in-play previews at the close of play each day but, for now, I’ll finish with a speculative punt in the first innings.

It means circling back to BRYDON CARSE who, while passed over for now in the England first innings batsman market, might be worth a few quid to HIT THE MOST SIXES IN ENGLAND’S FIRST INNINGS.

This is an interesting market because unless making a mammoth score, it doesn’t always stand that top-order batters hit sixes.

In Perth, even Harry Brook only managed one maximum in his first-innings half-century, the only one of the whole innings, while in the second dig, the top seven all drew a blank before Carse and Atkinson hit two each.

Carse is a strong boy who hits a long ball and in 15 innings in his Test career to date, he has cleared the ropes on 14 occasions. That’s some going when you consider that Brook, for example, has 48 in 52 innings – a very similar strike-rate.

Anything close to one six per innings is very good, putting Carse in the mix with the likes of Brook and Jamie Smith, so I can’t resist rolling the dice at 18/1 on a lower-order hitter who I believe has the potential to pay his way with the bat on this tour and beyond.

It’s not hard to envisage a scenario where Carse comes to the crease with England either struggling and with the field up, or when off-spinner Nathan Lyon has been brought on to give the seamers a breather.

I can’t say I was too impressed with his gung-ho approach with the bat in that first innings in Perth, clearly having little interest in batting time for Smith at the other end, but he went down swinging, very nearly over deep square leg on a huge ground. Second time around and Carse did clear those ropes twice.

Something similar may well do the job this week, so the muscular Carse is a play at the current odds.

Ashes latest news

Jacks handed Ashes chance

• Will Jacks has been named in England's starting XI for the second Ashes Test against Australia.

Posted at 1125 GMT on 01/12/25

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