Saturday boxing tips: Chris Oliver preview and recommended bets for Lara v Warrington II
Boxing betting tips: Saturday September 4
2pts Mauricio Lara to beat Josh Warrington at 5/4 (BetVictor)
1pt Conor Benn to win in rounds 7-12 at 5/2 (Sky Bet)
0.5pts Katie Taylor to win in rounds 6-10 at 6/1 (Sky Bet)
Josh Warrington vs Mauricio Lara II
When: Saturday September 4 (UK), main event approx. 2200 BST
Where: Headingley Stadium, Leeds
TV info: DAZN
Tough rematch for local hero
Josh Warrington's career at the top level is very much on the line against MAURICIO LARA in a fascinating rematch at Headingly Stadium on Saturday night.
Lara produced one of the biggest upsets in a British ring for some time when ruining the unbeaten record of Warrington, who was as short as 1/50 for that contest in February, in brutal fashion. In what was expected to be a routine tune-up fight for Warrington after 16 months out of the ring, the Leeds man was dropped twice before being stopped in the ninth round and deserves full credit for jumping straight back in with the man who handed him such a heavy beating. Unsurprisingly there is no 14/1 available again about Lara this time, but it's the local boy who retains favouritism at a top price of 8/11.
Rematches of shock results provide intriguing return bouts and this is no exception, with so many questions to be answered and a compelling case can be made for both repeat and revenge.
Going solely on the evidence of their first contest, it's hard to see anything but the same outcome. This was no lucky victory nor was it even a close fight, as Lara inflicted a one-sided beating that made a mockery of the odds and the pre-fight narrative. Warrington is known for his fast starts and come-forward style, but he was forced to retreat after a heavy uppercut midway through the first round and that set the tone for the fight. The pair traded blows at close quarters from that point onwards but Lara always had the last word in the exchanges and Warrington came off second best every time. The latter was arguably very lucky to be allowed to carry on after hitting the canvas in the fourth round and the writing was on the wall until he was put out of his misery. With that very much still fresh in the memory, it's easy to a look at the odds against about the visitor and come to the conclusion that 5/4 is too big.
Click here to back Mauricio Lara to win with Sky Bet!
However, there are many factors to suggest we can expect much better from the favourite here. Whereas Lara had been active during 2020, Warrington was returning from a long layoff and may have had some ring rust to shake off. He may also have overlooked the Mexican, whose record of 22-2 at the time didn't suggest he was a serious threat to the man considered by many to be the number one featherweight in the world and there will be no underestimating him now. Perhaps the most notable factor is the return of crowds and the fight taking place in Leeds. Warrington's passionate and vociferous backing from his army of adoring fans was a huge part of his rise to the top and if anyone was going to suffer from boxing behind closed doors, it was him.
No surprises, no problem
The psychology of a quick return is another factor to consider. While Lara will have lost that surprise element, he will now be brimming with confidence after claiming the biggest win of his career in such emphatic fashion and could raise his game again. Conversely, Warrington has to overcome any mental demons of that painful night seven months ago and deal with going straight back in with his conqueror. This would have been easier if he lost a close decision or suffered a 'lucky' one-punch knockout, but his beating was a sustained and harrowing one.
Warrington needs to be smarter with his attacks than the first time, when he walked forward in straight lines and provided an easy target for the heavy-handed Lara. If he can use more angles and be a bit smarter in defence early doors to pick up some confidence-boosting rounds, the favourite could get back into his groove and prove that first result to be all wrong. Utilising his quicker feet and famous high work rate, a points win (11/8) looks the most likely route of victory for Warrington, with home advantage a big plus if it goes to the cards.
However, I find it hard to get away from just how comprehensively Lara prevailed at the Wembley Arena and fancy him to repeat the dose. Warrington would have been better off if the fight had been stopped in that disastrous fourth round, but the beating continued for a good while longer and those are the sort of demolition jobs that fighters are never the same after.
The worrying thing for Warrington is that he couldn't make a dent in Lara, who had been boxing at higher weights and looked the bigger, strong man in the ring. The victor also seemed to do damage every time they traded and clearly carries the power to do the same again. It was a long road to the top for the Leeds hero and bouncing straight back from a defeat like that is a big ask. If he pulls it off then Warrington deserves all the praise he will receive, but there are simply too many question marks over the 30-year-old for me to side with him here.
Taylor in town and set to light up Headingley
The Yorkshire fans are in for a treat as KATIE TAYLOR defends her unified lightweight titles against Jennifer Han in the chief support.
The legendary Irish fighter produced another big performance when outpointing old amateur rival Tasha Jonas in May and she is 1/40 to make it win number 19 against the visitor from the US.
It's been six fights and two-and-a-half years since Taylor stopped anyone, so another points success for the champion is the most likely outcome, but it's priced accordingly at 2/5. In search of some value, it may be worth taking a chance on Taylor getting the job done in rounds 6-10, which has been boosted to 6/1 by Sky Bet.
Han brings a record of 18-3-1 to the table, but has won eight in a row since losing her bid for world featherweight honours against Ji Hye Woo via majority decision in 2014. However, she has only one KO on her CV and doesn't carry much power, so may struggle to repel Taylor, who can really go through the gears if not fearing what is coming back. Also, the challenger is used to competing at lower weights and could be broken down by her bigger, and classier, opponent as the fights goes on.
Benn may be made to wait for win
CONOR BENN is a welcome addition the card as the exciting prospect bids to continue his ascendency against Adrian Granados.
They were originally due to meet in July before Benn tested positive for Covid-19 during fight week and he is now champing at the bit to get back in the ring. The progress in the 24-year-old in the last couple of years has been remarkable and, following an excellent boxing display to outpoint the durable Sebastian Formella, Benn made a real statement by stopping the experienced Samuel Vargas in just 80 seconds in April. Most people believed Vargas would present a real challenge for the youngster, but Benn rattled him early and produced a devastating attack to earn a very early night.
On paper, Granados represents a good test, having been in with the likes of Adrien Broner, Shawn Porter, Robert Easter Jr and Danny Garcia. He lost to all of those world champions but only the latter managed to stop him and that remains his only time he hasn't heard the final bell in eight defeats.
A typical Mexican, the 31-year-old comes to fight and throws plenty of leather, which won't be a concern for Benn who is never one to shy away from a tear-up. Like his father, Nigel, Benn is becoming a real 'must watch' with his all-action style and this should be very entertaining while it lasts.
It's easy to get carried away with the Vargas demolition job and assume another Benn stoppage (2/5) beckons, but anyone can get caught cold and while there is no doubting the huge potential of the 1/25 favourite, I want to see more of the youngster at this sort of level (only his second 12-rounder) before piling in at those odds. The gut says Benn in the second half (5/2) against a man with plenty of miles on the clock. However, it would be no surprise if, not for the first time, Granados proves tough to get rid of and Benn by decision could be a runner at 3/1.
Published at 1105 BST on 03/09/21
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