Boxing betting tips: Wardley v Clarke, Marku v Kongo and Riley v Lawal live on Sky Sports
Chris Oliver previews a cracking Sky Sports card on Easter Sunday that features Fabio Wardley v Frazer Clarke.
Boxing betting tips: Sunday March 31
1pt Fabio Wardley to win in rounds 7-12 11/4 (Sky Bet)
2pts Chris Kongo to win by decision 13/5 (bet365)
1pt Viddal Riley to win by decision 5/4 (Sky Bet)
It seems fitting that a fight that was resurrected from the dead tops a cracking Sky Sports-televised card on Easter Sunday.
Frazer Clarke and his team were crucified by the fans for withdrawing from the purse bids when a contest with Fabio Wardley was ordered for the British title last year, but the pair finally get it on at London’s O2 Arena in an intriguing heavyweight clash.
The completely different routes the pair have taken to reach this point make it a fascinating contest and both men have been very bullish in the build-up.
Having waited for his turn on Team GB behind Anthony Joshua and Joe Joyce, Clarke got his Olympic chance at the Tokyo 2020 games and came away with a bronze medal. With a wealth of top-level amateur experience, he turned over to the paid ranks in 2022 and has recorded eight straight wins so far.
Conversely, with only experience of the white-collar scene to his name and zero amateur fights, Wardley (17-0) has exceeded all expectations as a professional and, since going the four-round distance on his debut, he has stopped all 16 of his subsequent opponents.
Given that all the pedigree is with Clarke, it may seem strange that he is a 15/8 shot this weekend and it is Wardley who is favoured by the layers at 4/9. However, there has been a lot of negativity around ‘Big Fraze’ and the quality of his opponents to date, while Wardley has proven himself in tough fights as a professional already and that could count for an awful lot.
As you would expect from someone with his background, Frazer is well schooled and technically very sound. He has a good jab, which he mixes up nicely to head and body, and keeps his shape well, but he has hardly set the world alight in the pro ranks and has a lot of questions to answer as a result.
Clarke brushed aside poor opposition early doors and has kept on winning when the matchmaking improved slightly, but he appeared very much in need of the full 10 rounds (UD) he got against veteran Mariusz Wach last summer and he didn’t look great against an over-the-hill Dave Allen until the latter was pulled out after six rounds with a perforated eardrum.
Wardley, on the other hand, has produced plenty of viral moments with heavy hands and the crowds have really warmed to his exciting style. The explosive 29-year-old with fast hands utilises feints very well and he has improved at a rate of knots, especially since linking up with top coach Ben Davison.
Wardley captured the British title when prevailing in a three-round shoot-out with Nathan Gorman, before showing more maturity and patience when stopping Michael Coffie in the fourth session, and he produced a career-best performance when adding the Commonwealth strap to his collection by halting the previously unbeaten David Adeleye in October. After a competitive opening few rounds, Adeleye couldn’t handle the heat when Wardley turned up and the former was stopped in the seventh stanza.
It could be a similar scenario here, with doubts over whether Clarke can fight at the kind of pace Wardley likes to set and we have yet to see the underdog’s chin checked either. This is also Clarke’s first ‘real’ fight, and he must prove he has the minerals to dig deep when in the trenches, which is something we have seen Wardley do on several occasions.
Admittedly, Wardley can be a little slow to start and his leaky defence could see Clarke have success early doors, but the favourite does seem to take a shot well and he’s proven to be at his most dangerous when under pressure.
It is 2/5 to not go the distance and those odds appear justified, with Wardley yet to venture beyond seven rounds and Clarke halting six of his eight victims. So, assuming this doesn’t last the full 12 rounds, the evidence we have available points firmly towards Wardley winning by stoppage (5/6) being far more likely Clarke (7/2) doing so.
Wardley’s tendency to be a little slow out of the blocks and my expectation that Clarke will only start to unravel once he feels the pace lead me to fancying the former to get the job done in the second half of the fight. Wardley by stoppage in rounds 7-12 has been boosted to 11/4 (from 9/4) by Sky Bet and that looks good value.
Wardley’s improvement shows no signs of slowing down and we can expect to see the best version of him yet here, while Clarke may be as good as he is going to get and that doesn’t quite look enough for him to overcome this challenge.
CLICK HERE to back Wardley in rounds 7-12 with Sky Bet
Kongo to box his way to points win
In a classic case of aggressive puncher versus slick boxer, there is very little separating Florian Marku and Chris Kongo at the prices in the chief support.
Marku, who is a slight 4/5 favourite, is unbeaten in 14 (one draw) and the Albanian knows only one way to fight, which is to come walking forward and look to get inside to land the heavy shots that have seen him record eight wins inside the distance.
Kongo (14-2) is all about the sweet science as he looks to use his long reach and good feet to make the most of his excellent jab. The 31-year-old did so very effectively for the first half of the fight when challenging Ekow Essuman for the British and Commonwealth welterweight titles in January 2023, before the champion came on strong down the stretch to nick a razor-thin majority decision.
That looks a key line of form, as Marku has a similar style to Essuman and will be pressing the action from the get-go, with the taller and longer Kongo trying to keep him on the end of his jab. If that Essuman fight was 10 rounds instead of 12, then Kongo would have hung on to get the decision and I think the two-round shorter distance can help him gain compensation this weekend.
We have seen Marku outboxed for long periods in the past before catching up with his man and, in what looks his toughest fight to date, it could take him a while before he closes the gap on the fleet-footed Kongo.
The latter has also mixed in better company, with there being no shame in his close decision loss to awkward southpaw Michael McKinson in 2021 and his 10-round decision victory over Sebastian Formella the following year is arguably the best win either man can boast.
While both men are returning from a layoff, Marku’s inactivity is slightly more concerning as his only action since August 2022 was a 54-second blowout against the overmatched Dylan Moran in September last year.
Any ring rust for the favourite would make his task to catch up with the talented Kongo even harder and I am backing the Bermondsey-based local to box his way to a points victory at 13/5.
CLICK HERE to back Kongo to win by decision with Sky Bet
Riley to get the nod
We will find out a lot more about the ceiling of Viddal Riley’s career when he faces Makael Lawal in a good cruiserweight bout.
A former top amateur, Riley turned his back on the YouTube world to concentrate on his boxing career and highlighted his potential when capturing the English title with a 10-round shut-out against Nathan Quarless on his latest outing.
There could be more to come from him and that may need to be the case to get past Lawal, who had a perfect 16-fight record before losing his British title to Isaac Chamberlain via a lopsided decision last time.
That performance is a concern for Lawal and, although he is more experienced, the upward trajectory of Riley is enough for me to believe he can get the nod from the judges (5/4) at the end of this 10-rounder.
CLICK HERE to back Riley to win by decision with Sky Bet
Posted at 1500 GMT on 30/03/24
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