Boxing betting tips: Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez v Dimitry Bivol

Boxing betting tips: Canelo v Bivol

2pts Canelo to win by split decision 5/1 (Sky Bet)

1pt Bivol to win by split decision 40/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

Saul 'Canelo' Alvarez doesn't do things by halves, and his venture into the light heavyweight division on Saturday night is no exception.

Following a stunning run at super middleweight which saw him pick up all four titles in the space of 11 months, Canelo now begins his quest to do the same at 175lb against the unbeaten Dimitry Bivol.

Bivol is no soft touch to pick up some more gold in yet another weight class. The Russian is an elite fighter in his own right and, seen by most as the number two in the division, he could well be Canelo's toughest test since his sole loss to Floyd Mayweather back in back in 2013.

Following an outstanding amateur career, Bivol hasn't even come close to losing in 19 professional outings and has defended his WBA light heavyweight title eight times already. He barely lost a round against former champions Sullivan Barrera (TKO 12) and Jean Pascal (UD), likewise against Joe Smith Jr (UD), who has franked that form by claiming a belt himself since.

All those were against bigger men, yet it is Bivol who has all the size advantages this weekend. While not the biggest for the weight, he is still four inches taller than Canelo, with a superior reach, and he is naturally the heavier fighter. We have become used to seeing Canelo make light of conceding size and height now, but there are weight divisions for a reason and there will surely come a time when he bites off more than he can chew.

With all of this in mind, the 4/1 available at Bivol is very tempting indeed. However, this is Canelo we are talking about, and he is no ordinary smaller man stepping up in weight.

'Superb all-rounder' so hard to beat

Since his hotly-disputed draw and points victory over Gennady Golovkin at middleweight in 2017 and 2018 respectively, the Mexican star has taken his craft to another level and arrives on a brilliant run of form. Stoppage wins over Rocky Fielding and Sergey Kovalev sandwiched a successful middleweight defence against Danny Jacobs, before he cleaned up at 168lb with remarkable ease.

Plenty believed Callum Smith would be too big, Billy Joe Saunders too skilful and Caleb Plant too fast, but Canelo overcame those talented champions with little fuss, and they were all bigger opponents, too. A top price of 1/4 suggests Canelo will pick up at 175lb where he left off in the 168lb division.

However, in his only previous outing at light heavyweight against Kovalev, the man from Guadalajara certainly didn't have things all his own way and was behind on most people's scorecards barring the judges (not for the first time, but we'll come to that later) before pulling a dramatic stoppage out of the bag in the 11th round.

Most of Kovalev's success that night was down to his jab and Bivol's lead left hand is arguably better than his countryman’s. It's a real ramrod jab that is not only one of the best around, but it is also used to disguise a brilliant lead left hook that can do serious damage. The well-schooled 31-year-old has very good fundamentals and has a high ring IQ, with very good feet for someone of his size and a right hand that demands respect.

Canelo has developed into superb all-rounder in recent years, adding to his world class offensive arsenal with excellent defence and sublime head movement. He is a master tactician who downloads the information in front of him and is patient in breaking down his opponents whichever way he sees fit. His feet have also improved markedly, and he is an expert at cutting off the ring now.

The pressure of facing Canelo and all that goes with a big fight week against the Mexican superstar can often take something away from his opponents, but I don't see the calm Bivol being overawed or intimidated, which is a boost for his chances. Bivol is also at his peak and, with a level playing field, I could see this one going either way.

The problem is, it is no level playing field when you're up against Canelo, who is undoubtedly the biggest star in the sport. There are countless examples of the flame-haired star being looked upon favourably by the judges, most notably in that draw with Golovkin and against Mayweather, when one judge never worked again after inexplicably scoring the near-shutout a draw.

He's the sport's cash cow and is treated accordingly. With the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas packed full of screaming Mexican fans who will be in full voice for their idol on the famous Cinco de Mayo weekend, the crowd will erupt every time their man moves his hands and Bivol won't be getting any favours from the judges, especially as he is representing Russia at the worst possible time.

Long night in store

Both men have good chins and have never been down, so I fully expect this to go the full 12 rounds with the judges deciding the outcome. That theory is backed up by the 1/2 on offer about this going the distance.

Neither man is known for being in a rush and this could prove to be a real chess match in the first half of the fight, with many rounds being hard to score as they both look to establish their jabs and set traps. The quick feet of Bivol can allow him to use his height and reach advantages better than most of Canelo's opponents and closing the gap may not be easy for the favourite, especially if the underdog can find a regular home for his jab. However, Canelo is also a master at countering over the top of the lead left hand of an orthodox fighter and who wins that battle will be crucial.

The versatility and experience of Canelo could come to the fore in the second half of the fight, as it so often has in the past. That said, he is used to exploiting tiring opponents after halfway, but the pace is unlikely to be too hot here and Bivol doesn't have to struggle to make the weight, so I don't envisage the Russian running out of gas at all.

With Canelo stepping up in weight and Bivol stepping up in class, this really is a fascinating contest and a victory for the underdog would be no shock at all. However, the aforementioned factors regarding the judges and the many times we have seen Canelo find a way to win means him winning on points looks the most likely outcome. There is no juice in the 8/11 about that result, though, whereas the 5/1 about a SPLIT DECISION VICTORY for the favourite rates a good value option.

With Bivol expected to be very competitive all the way to the final bell and the possibility of close rounds aplenty due to their tactical nature, there is every chance we could have another really tight decision on our hands in a huge fight, following the much-debated outcome in the thriller between Katie Taylor and Amanda Serrano a week ago. A close contest on the cards brings that bet firmly into the equation and the price is big enough to tempt me in. As is the 40/1 about Bivol winning by split decision, which warrants a 'saver', and I think backers at those odds can get a serious run for their money.

• CLICK HERE to back Canelo by split decision with Sky Bet
• CLICK HERE to back Bivol by split decision with Sky Bet

Posted at 1030 BST on 06/05/22

Canelo v Bivol: How to watch on TV

Canelo v Bivol is available via streaming platform DAZN, which requires a monthly subscription fee.

Ring walks for the main event are expected at around 8pm local time, which is 4am in the UK.

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