Chris Oliver has been in excellent form lately and our big-fight expert has a confident selection for a British heavyweight dust-up on Saturday night.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday May 9
3pts Wardley vs Dubois under 7.5 rounds at 6/5 (Ladbrokes, Coral)
1pt Ekow Essuman to win at 12/5 (General)
Don’t blink or you might miss something special on Saturday night.
Broadcast on DAZN from Manchester’s Co-op Live Arena, Fabio Wardley makes the first defence of his WBO heavyweight title against Daniel Dubois in a fight that seems guaranteed to provide fireworks.
All-British heavyweight title fights are always special, and this one looks no different, with both men boasting fantastic knockout records and a thirst for violence in the ring.
It is seen as a genuine 50-50 and that is reflected in the odds, with evens available for Wardley and Dubois a top price of 11/10.
Plenty has already been written about Wardley’s amazing journey but to become heavyweight champion without having any amateur experience is nothing short of spectacular. The Ipswich man has literally been learning on the job and he is learning fast.
After demolishing Frazer Clarke inside a round in their rematch, Wardley (20-0-1, 19KOs) was outboxed and outmanoeuvred by Justis Huni before turning it all around with one devastating right hand to knock out his Australian opponent in the 10th round.
Then he produced another amazing comeback against an in-form Joseph Parker when, behind on the scorecards, he launched a sustained attack in the 11th round to force the referee’s intervention.
The 31-year-old was subsequently awarded the WBO strap which was stripped from Oleksandr Usyk and the fact he has chosen arguably the most dangerous opponent out there for this mandatory defence tells you everything you need to know about his mindset.
He carries his power late and his upward trajectory so far suggests there could be more improvement to come, especially now he has become champion which is sure to have taken his confidence to a new level. His thrilling style has made him must-see TV.
Dubois is nicknamed ‘Dynamite’ for a reason and his record of 21 stoppages in 22 wins (three defeats) outlines his explosive power.
Dubois was labelled as a ‘quitter’ after his opening two defeats, having taken a knee for the full count with a broken orbital bone against Joe Joyce in 2020 and again chosen to stay down when losing to Usyk in 2023.
However, then came three fantastic victories that contradicted all the claims of him being mentally weak.
Dubois overcame all 333lbs of the durable Jarrell Miller to stop the American in the dying seconds of their 10-rounder, before taking the best shots previously unbeaten Filip Hrgovic could offer and outlasting him for an eight-round stoppage.
Then came his crowning moment when, having been awarded the IBF belt, Dubois beat up and stopped Anthony Joshua in five rounds at Wembley Stadium in September 2024. Dubois was brilliant from the first bell that night, pushing Joshua back with his ramrod jab and dropping him four times before the finish.
Those wins led him to a rematch with Usyk last summer but this time his defeat was more emphatic, as a brilliant Usyk knocked him out in the fifth round.
If the Joyce loss was understandable, then Dubois has only fallen short against Usyk in recent years and there is no shame in losing to arguably the best boxer of his generation, especially when that man is a tricky and elusive southpaw. Dubois generally does very well against more orthodox opponents, and he won’t find Wardley as tough to hit.
Dubois deserves credit for going straight back into the danger zone after a knockout defeat and he clearly fancies this job.
The 28-year-old from Greenwich is the better technically out of the two here and he does the basics very well. Armed with a fantastic jab, Dubois is athletic, powerful, and is at his very best when on the front foot.
Dubois could win this fight pretty comfortably if he keeps it simple and boxes behind his jab, which would bring a second-half stoppage (5/1) or decision (6/1) victory into play. However, whether he can stick to such a gameplan is debatable, as he has a tendency to abandon the fundamentals and go looking for the knockout.
Don’t get me wrong, Dubois carries serious power and is more than capable of stopping Wardley, but such gung-ho tactics would make it anyone’s fight and play right into the hands of Wardley.
Wardley would love nothing more than a tear-up in the centre of the ring, having proven his knockout power time and again, and he can also take a good shot.
That kind of shoot-out could go either way, with a Wardley stoppage 6/4 and Dubois by the same method a 9/5 chance, but I wouldn’t like to call who will prevail in such circumstances.
The only definite winner in that scenario is the fans, with excitement guaranteed in that type of fight, and that leads me to looking at the total rounds market.
I see both fighters going straight at each other from the opening bell and a war between these two heavy hitters shouldn’t last too long. I’d be surprised if this 12-rounder goes into the final third of the contest and I like the UNDER 7.5 ROUNDS at 6/5.
Under 6.5 rounds is very tempting at 13/8, but I prefer the extra round at shorter odds.
'Live underdog' worth a bet
Another fight on the card that should be very fan friendly is the welterweight contest between Jack Rafferty and EKOW ESSUMAN.
Rafferty (26-0-1, 17 KOs) is a very warm 2/5 favourite as he looks to maintain his unbeaten record and the local lad will have the backing of the crowd. However, there are reasons to suggest those odds are too short.
Firstly, Rafferty really struggled with Mark Chamberlain when drawing with that rival last August and he may have been a little lucky to not receive his first loss that night.
Rafferty is stepping up in weight here and takes on a fully-fledged welterweight, while he has also been out of the ring for nine months.
Rafferty likes to apply pressure and look to let his heavy hands go with frequency, but he meets a man known as ‘The Engine’ and Essuman will relish a high-octane affair.
The latter sent Josh Taylor into retirement with an excellent points victory before being halted by Jack Catterall in the 11th round when we last saw him in November. Those are world-class operators, though, and this represents a drop back in class for Essuman.
He may be 37 but was a late starter and he doesn’t have many miles on the clock for his age. I see Essuman as a very live underdog here and I am happy to take the 12/5 on offer about him registering a minor upset.
Posted at 10:25 BST on 08/05/25
Boxing: Related content
Safer gambling
We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.
If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.
Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.
