Boxing betting tips: Live DAZN card preview and best bets
Chris Oliver was in profit with his big-fight previews in March, and he has two fancies including a confident headline bet for Saturday.
Boxing betting tips: Saturday April 13
3pts Zelfa Barrett to win by stoppage at 5/4 (Sky Bet)
1pt Karen Elizabeth Carabajal to win by decision at 4/1 (General)
There are plenty of similarities between ZELFA BARRETT and Jordan Gill as they clash at the Manchester Arena on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Both men have lost twice in a near identical number of fights and there’s just one year difference between them in terms of age, with the carrot of a world title shot being dangled for the winner of this all-British super featherweight contest.
It is Barrett (30-2) who has had a taste of fighting for world honours already, when he came in at short notice to challenge Shavkatdzhon Rakhimov for the IBF belt and gave a very good account of himself. A big underdog that night, Barrett was brilliant in the first half of the fight, as he dropped the champion in the third round and rocked him on several occasions, before a leg injury and tiredness saw him unravel in the ninth session.
That standout line of form ensures Barrett is a 1/2 favourite (as short as 4/11) here, with Gill (28-2-1) available at 2/1 as he goes into the lion’s den as the away fighter.
However, being an underdog in his opponent’s back yard is no issue for Gill, as evidenced by his upset victory over Michael Conlan in December. Despite being a 6/1 outsider in Belfast that night, the 29-year-old from Cambridgeshire dropped Conlan in the second round and, while the local favourite had plenty of success of his own, Conlan had to be saved by the referee when under heavy fire in the seventh session.
Having teamed up with top coach Ben Davison for the move up to super featherweight, Gill produced a career-best performance as the new weight seemed to suit him, or was it a case of right place, right time against a faded Conlan? With his punch resistance shot, the latter looked to be feeling the effects of a brutal last-round stoppage in his 2022 Fight of the Year with Leigh Wood and his five-round beating at the hands of Luis Alberto Lopez last year. Also, the move up to 130lb clearly suited Gill better than former super bantamweight Conlan.
Prior to that shock victory, Gill had a very rocky 2022, both in and out of the ring, and his two performances that year remain fresh in the memory. Firstly, he was in all sorts of trouble and appeared to be on the verge of being stopped by the smaller Karim Guerfi when sparking the Frenchman with a stunning once-in-a-lifetime shot, before being beat up and stopped inside four rounds by 36-year-old veteran Kiko Martinez.
In Barrett, he faces a fully-fledged super featherweight and one who has beaten Martinez, albeit by a hotly-debated decision in 2021.
Barrett has improved markedly over the last few years and, building on that excellent showing against Rakhimov, the 30-year-old looked a much more confident fighter when dominating tough American Jason Sanchez in style over 12 rounds next time out. The Mancunian appeared unmotivated in his ‘marking time’ eight-rounder against Costin Ion (points) in November, but he will be bang up for this one as he gets his dream of headlining at the big arena in his home city.
Barrett lives up to his nickname of the ‘Brown Flash’, with his lightning-quick hands and smart footwork aiding his aesthetically pleasing stick-and-move tactics. He’s happy on the back foot as his reactions allow him to land sharp counters from all sorts of angles and he generates plenty of power with those whipping shots, most notably his stinging left hook.
Gill is also a very tidy boxer with good feet and solid fundamentals. With that in mind, this could be a battle of the jabs early doors and, while both men are strong in that department, the quicker lead left hand of Barrett could be the one that wins the argument.
There is no doubt that Gill looked stronger at this new weight last time, but it’s hard to forget his defensive frailties of the past and his lack of punch resistance. He has never been hard to hit, and his tendency to pull out high and go back in straight lines could be his downfall here, with the rapid reflexes of Barrett more than capable of punishing such mistakes.
If Gill is to serve up another upset win, it is likely to be on points, which is a 5/1 chance, but I strongly favour the experience and speed of the naturally bigger Barrett to come out on top here. While a decision victory for the favourite is not out of the question at 14/5, Gill has never gone the full 12 rounds before and I believe his leaky defence will present enough opportunities for Barrett to get the job done inside the distance at 5/4.
The previous experience of a world title shot should stand Barrett in good stead and he also has the backing of the home crowd, which further enhances his already-strong claims.
Easy decision on undercard
There are two female world title bouts on the undercard and Ellie Scotney (8-0) should justify odds of 1/9 to add Segolene Lefebvre’s WBO super bantamweight belt to her IBF strap.
The pocket rocket from Catford is improving with each fight and she is expected to be too quick and busy for her methodical opponent to claim another points victory, but that is priced accordingly at 1/5.
However, Rhiannon Dixon versus KAREN ELIZABETH CARABAJAL for the vacant WBO lightweight title should be much more competitive.
Dixon extended her perfect record when comfortably outpointing Katharina Thanderz for the European title last time and she is 4/11 to take her record to 10-0 here, but this is a decent step up against the much more experience Carabajal (3-1).
This belt was vacated by Katie Taylor and Carabajal (22-1) certainly had her moments when losing a unanimous decision to the Irish star in London on her sole outing outside of Argentina in October 2022. She has bounced back with three wins since, and the 34-year-old brings a wealth of experience to the table.
With just four stoppages between them in a combined total of 31 wins, this looks sure to go the full 10 rounds and while Warrington’s Dixon has home advantage, the 1/2 about her winning a decision looks far too skinny.
The long levers for Carabajal gave Taylor plenty to think about 18 months ago and the 4/1 available for her getting the nod on the scorecards here is big enough to tempt me in for a small investment.
Posted at 1030 BST on 12/04/24
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