Boxing expert Chris Oliver is back to preview the big-fight action this weekend, with a tasty double advised in his recommended bets.
Boxing betting tips: Joe Cordina v Kenichi Ogawa
1pt double Joe Cordina by decision and Devin Haney by decision at 2.8/1 (Paddy Power, Betfair)
There are two big televised fights to dissect this weekend and both look well matched, with the winners far from easy to call.
We start in Cardiff, where Joe Cordina bids to become the 13th world champion from Wales when he takes on Kenichi Ogawa on Saturday night, live on DAZN.
Cordina was a decorated amateur who went to the Olympics in 2016 but, like his Rio teammate Joshua Buatsi, his career has been something of a slow burner. Part of the reason for that is a hand injury that saw him miss the whole of 2020, but after 14 straight wins he gets the chance to make up for lost time against the IBF super featherweight belt holder.
However, Ogawa is no pushover and represents a serious test for the Welshman. The Japanese champion has only lost once in 28 fights, which was 10 years ago, and arrives on the back of an impressive performance, when capturing the title against Azinga Fuzile in New York last November. In an exciting bout, Ogawa dropped the South African three times en route to a unanimous decision.
He is perhaps better known for his 'victory' over Tevin Farmer in late 2017, when he was awarded a close decision but then tested positive for androstanediol and the result was amended to a no contest. That cloud still hangs over him, but he remains a formidable force at 130lbs and will ensure Cordina needs a career-best effort to prevail.
The money has really come for the local man during fight week and he is currently a best price of 4/7, with Ogawa backers seeing their man drift to 11/8. Home advantage could be crucial and that has been reflected in the betting patterns, but Ogawa has fought twice in the US and will have no issue with travelling.
The champion is all about power so it is no surprise to see him as big as 11/2 to win by decision, as he is likely to get this done inside distance (5/2) if he is to record win number 27 of his career. The visitor will be on the front foot and pressing the action from the first bell, looking to land that huge right hand of his and impose his physicality on the challenger.
Cordina is all about the sweet science and if he is going to maintain his perfect record, it is most probably going to be by decision (10/11) and he doesn't appear to have the power to stop Ogawa (15/2). That said, the favourite has appeared to hit with a bit more authority since dropping to this weight division and having his hand operated on.
Still, his main assets are his silky skills and he has plenty of them. With lightning hands and excellent feet, he moves very well and fires sharp, accurate shots with good variation. He also possesses a lovely jab, which he mixes to body and head well, and has the tools to pick off the bullish champion as he marches forward.
Cordina is usually quick out of the starting blocks and this could be vital as he looks to rack up the early rounds while the champion tries to find his range. It is easy to envisage the challenger being well up on the scorecards at the halfway stage, utilising his speed and footwork to outbox the champion.
However, Ogawa will likely close the distance as the fight goes on and that is when the big questions for Cordina will come. Can he handle this aggressive champion in the later rounds and fend off the likely onslaught? The Welshman is expected to have to survive a few scares late on and could well be hanging on for the final bell, but I believe he may just have what it takes to do so.
Cordina is seasoned enough now and, at 30 years of age, it is make or break for him. There is the chance that Ogawa could begin to show signs of ageing a little at 34 and Cordina being the 'A-side' in his home country can count for a lot here, especially if it goes to the scorecards, and I believe he can pick up the belt via a decision win.
On Sky Sports in the early hours of Sunday morning, we have a cracking contest at lightweight as all the belts in the 135lb division are on the line between George Kambosos Jnr and Devin Haney in Australia.
Kambosos caused the upset of 2021 when taking the IBF, WBA and WBO belts from Teofimo Lopez via split decision. After dethroning the brilliant Vasyl Lomachenko, Lopez was a red-hot favourite to extend his unbeaten run, but Kambosos displayed tremendous heart, skill and resilience to gain a deserved victory.
That has earned him the right of home advantage here and he will be backed by a huge crowd at the Marvel Stadium in Melbourne. It shows the confidence of the Australian that he was set to face Lomachenko in his first defence and, when the latter was forced withdraw due to the conflict in his native Ukraine, Kambosos chose the next best option in Haney.
Haney has long been touted as one of the brightest prospects in the game and, still only 23, he boasts a 27-0 (15 KO) record that shows steady progress in recent years. He has outpointed former champions Yuriorkis Gamboa, Jorge Linares and 'Jo Jo' Diaz in his last three outings and now could be the perfect time for him to hit the big time.
Devin Haney is ready for Saturday night 🥊 pic.twitter.com/O5KIL16uWl
— ESPN Ringside (@ESPNRingside) May 31, 2022
However, he is going to have to do it the hard way as, not only is he going into his opponent's backyard, he is having to do so without his two trainers. His father, Bill, was refused a visa and Ben Davidson hasn't made the trip down under. Haney is no stranger to fighting in hostile territory, though, as he went to Mexico to begin his career as a 16-year-old and that tough apprenticeship means he is used to dealing with adversity.
Haney is an 8/13 favourite to overcome the biggest test in his career, while some may question why Kambosos is available at 11/8 despite boasting the best piece of form on offer with that Lopez win. While that is a valid point, we didn't see the best of Lopez that night and his wild, gung-ho approach was a far cry from the brilliant tactical display he produced against Lomachenko the time before.
With home backing and huge self-belief, Kambosos certainly won't give up his belts without a big fight and there is every chance his ferocity could see him bulldoze his way to another famous victory. However, the better skillset is with Haney here and that is enough for him to get my vote.
His slick feet and quick hands allow him to make opponents miss and make them pay with rapid counters, while he jabs with great authority and accuracy. If he can keep his cool and use his superior ring IQ, the American can use the home fighter's aggression against him and box his way to a points victory.
Rather like Cordina a few hours earlier, Haney will probably have to come through some sticky moments but a decision win for the younger man looks the most likely outcome at 21/20.
Posted at 1200 BST on 03/06/22
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