Boxing betting tips: Anthony Joshua vs Francis Ngannou and other Friday fights

Boxing betting tips: Friday March 8

1pt Anthony Joshua to win by decision at 7/2 (General)

1pt Joseph Parker to win by decision 7/2 (Sky Bet)

2pts Nick Ball to win by decision 13/8 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

We’re back in Saudi Arabia for another blockbuster on Friday night as ANTHONY JOSHUA takes on Francis Ngannou, live on DAZN and Sky Sports PPV.

The moans and groans about these big shows taking place in the Middle East are getting quieter with each stacked card that takes place, even if this latest main event has more of an exhibition feel to it than a heavyweight title eliminator.

A former UFC heavyweight champion, Ngannou’s first foray into the boxing world against Tyson Fury in October was deemed as more of a freak show than a meaningful contest, but everyone’s stance on the worth of that fight quickly changed as the Cameroonian underdog gave the ‘Gypsy King’ an almighty scare on his way to losing a razor-thin split decision.

Having been given little chance against the WBC heavyweight champion that night, Ngannou dropped Fury in the third round and, whichever way you scored it – and there were plenty who did so in favour of Ngannou – there is no doubt the outsider won rounds against the huge favourite.

ALSO READ: JOSHUA v NGANNOU, THE BIG QUESTIONS

A part of that may have been down to Fury not taking the contest too seriously, but Ngannou fared unbelievably well for someone making their professional debut as a boxer and his reward is another huge payday against one of the sport’s biggest names in Joshua.

The talk from fans about this being a serious test for Joshua (27-3) tells you how much opinion has changed about the threat of Ngannou since his performance against Fury, and that is reflected in the betting. All the money has been for Ngannou during fight week, and he is now just a 3/1 chance to be victorious here.

Joshua has drifted to 1/3, which is quite staggering considering he is an Olympic gold medallist and former two-time heavyweight champion taking on someone who lost his sole boxing match to date.

And it isn’t as though ‘AJ’ is arriving on the back of a poor performance. In fact, quite the opposite is true, as Joshua looked back to something like his destructive best when forcing Otto Wallin’s corner to pull their man out after five one-sided rounds here in December.

Rebuilding following back-to-back defeats to Oleksandr Usyk, that was Joshua’s third victory in eight months and, for the first time in a long time, he was fully committed to his attacks. His jab was red-hot, he rocked Wallin with hurtful counters and when he threw the right hand, he really stepped in behind it like he did in his younger days.

Ben Davison could have been a big part of that more aggressive approach and while it was Joshua’s fourth head coach in five fights, it seems a good fit and the training partnership is retained for this contest.

So, with Joshua now seemingly in line to fight the winner of Fury versus Usyk, there isn’t too much to gain for him in taking this fight (aside from a truckload of cash, of course) and he has everything to lose. That plays into the hands of Ngannou, who has no pressure on his shoulders and everything to gain.

Given his impressive and powerful-looking frame, many suspected Ngannou would be a physical handful for Fury, but nobody expected him to be as technically sound as he was, and he kept his shape very well throughout the fight. The 37-year-old showed good speed and displayed serious power with the left hook which scored the knockdown, while his ability to switch stances effectively was also a surprise.

ALSO READ: HOW DOES NGANNOU BEAT JOSHUA?

Ngannou can only improve for that first taste of competitive boxing action, but the flip side to that is his surprise element has gone now. While Fury had no idea what to expect, Joshua has 10 rounds of Ngannou footage to study and not only can he form a gameplan from that, but it should also mean AJ won’t take this challenge lightly, as Fury did.

Given how much Ngannou succeeded against Fury up close, where he was able to land his heavy hooks and often bully the bigger man in the clinches, Joshua is likely to want to keep this at long range, especially early doors.

I expect the Watford man to start out working mainly behind his jab and looking to break down Ngannou on the outside with that lead left hand, while setting a decent pace in the hope that the underdog’s engine starts to splutter as the fight goes on. If that scenario plays out, then the gaps should appear for Joshua to step on the gas and claim the stoppage that odds of 4/5 suggest he will.

However, Ngannou was very clever against Fury and patiently waited for the favourite to come to him, before pulling the trigger when Fury held his feet for slightly too long on the inside. If Ngannou can lure Joshua into trading at close range and land that same left hook, will the Brit have the same powers of recovery as Fury?

After all, Joshua is probably easier to find than Fury and we have seen his chin prove vulnerable when tested in the past. If Ngannou is going to win this, it will most likely be by stoppage and the 7/2 about that outcome may tempt plenty in.

That said, Joshua’s advantages in pedigree, skills and experience should be too much here and Fury’s struggles in the autumn will mean, unlike the latter, he is fully prepared for the Ngannou test. The big question is whether Joshua can stop the boxing novice and while there is every chance that will be the case, I’m not prepared to take odds-on about that outcome and there appears to be plenty of juice in the 7/2 about the favourite WINNING BY DECISION.

CLICK HERE to back Joshua by decision with Sky Bet

All the clues from his MMA career suggested that Ngannou takes a shot very well and that proved to be the case on his boxing debut, as he barely blinked on the occasions that Fury caught him clean and was never pushed back.

Also, wary of Ngannou’s power and sheer physical presence, I wouldn’t be surprised to see a return to the more cautious version of AJ that we have seen in recent times. Four of Joshua’s last seven fights have gone the full 12 rounds and, with this non-title bout only scheduled for 10, the value may lie in this one going the distance before Joshua has his hand raised.

ALSO READ: HOW DOES JOSHUA AVOID AN UPSET?

Parker to revel in role of underdog

This card was meant to be topped by the long-awaited showdown between Joshua and Deontay Wilder, but JOSEPH PARKER ripped up that script by outpointing the latter with a boxing masterclass on the aforementioned show here in December.

Parker swaps one devastating puncher for another as he now faces Zhilei Zhang, who is flying high after back-to-back stoppage wins over Joe Joyce.

Joyce was dubbed as being indestructible but ‘Big Bang’ lived up to his nickname with a pair of brutally one-sided victories and Zhang is a 1/2 chance to continue his winning streak. Parker is as big as 15/8, in part due to the fact he was stopped in the 11th round by Joyce 18 months ago.

However, styles make fights and Parker, who had success in that thrilling contest, just didn’t have the power to deter Joyce, who lived up to his moniker of the ‘Juggernaut’ and got stronger as the fight went on. Conversely, the big-punching Zhang was able to make a serious dent in the stationary target of Joyce when they clashed, and it was one-way traffic once the latter was hurt.

A 6’6” southpaw, Zhang (26-1-1) is just as big and powerful as Joyce, but his engine isn’t the same and this could look very different to Joyce versus Parker if the latter can make it into the second half of the contest. We have seen the man from China tire badly before and, at 40 years old, his gas tank certainly won’t be improving.

Zhang is extremely dangerous early doors and, such is the nature of heavyweight boxing, my selection of Parker (34-3) WINNING A DECISION at 7/2 could well blow up in my face in the first third of the contest. The price is big enough to lure me in, though, especially after seeing the ease with which Parker disarmed Wilder, who is arguably one of the biggest punchers in heavyweight history.

CLICK HERE to back Parker by decision with Sky Bet

Admittedly, Wilder was rather subdued that night but a lot of that was down to Parker being able to execute the gameplan perfectly and outbox the American for pretty much every minute of every round. That was Parker’s fourth win of 2023 and the former WBO champion is currently on a real roll under the guidance of Andy Lee, who was extremely keen on his charge taking this fight and the pair are full of confidence.

There will be more coming back in the direction of Parker this time and the early rounds will be fraught with danger, but there is a good chance the New Zealander can utilise his speed to keep out of harm’s way in the opening sessions before outboxing a tiring opponent when Zhang starts to slow down.

Punters having a Ball

The headlines are all about the heavyweights but the fight of the night on this tremendous card could be Rey Vargas defending his WBC featherweight title against NICK BALL.

Vargas is a top-class fighter who only lost for the first time in 37 bouts when dropping a unanimous decision to O’Shaquie Foster as he stepped up to super featherweight in a bid to become a three-weight world champion on his latest outing 13 months ago. However, he is available at 7/4 now back down to 126lb and the sense is that Ball, a 4/7 chance, could be getting the Mexican at the right time.

Vargas has only fought three times since the summer of 2019 and he has been easier to hit in recent outings, while I’m not a fan of fighters going back down in weight – especially at 33 years old.

The momentum is with Ball (19-0), who has charged towards a title shot in recent years and he aced his latest test against former world champion Isaac Dogboe with a wide-margin points victory in November.

The pair couldn’t be more different in stature, with Vargas very tall and long for the weight at 5’10”, while the stocky Ball is all about power and explosiveness at 5’2”. Therefore, there are no prizes for stating that Ball will need to get inside those longer levers of the champion to have success, but he closes the distance extremely well and lets rip with rapid combinations when he gets in range.

While this should be all action, both men are durable, and I agree with the odds of 1/2 about the fight going the distance. A peak Vargas would have the edge for me, but I’m not convinced that version of the Mexican still exists and the improving Ball can claim a notable scalp, as well as a world title, via a decision at 13/8.

CLICK HERE to back Ball by decision with Sky Bet

Joshua v Ngannou: Fight card, running order, and TV details

• MAIN EVENT: Anthony Joshua (1/5) vs Francis Ngannou (10/3)
• Zhilei Zhang vs Joseph Parker - for WBO interim heavyweight title
• Rey Vargas vs Nick Ball - for WBC featherweight title
• Mark Chamberlain vs Gavin Gwynne
• Andrii Novytskyi vs Juan Torres
• Justis Huni vs Kevin Lerena
• Ziyad Almaayouf vs TBA
• Roman Fury vs TBA
• Jack McGann vs TBA

Start time and TV coverage details

• Times: Undercard 1900 GMT, Friday March 8, Main Event 2300 GMT
• Venue: Kingdom Arena in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia
• TV channel and cost: DAZN UK PPV & Sky Sports PPV, £19.99

Posted at 1430 GMT on 07/03/24

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