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Watch And Learn: Graeme North timefigure analysis for Sky Bet Ebor Festival 2026 at York

Horse Racing
Tue August 25, 2026 · 1d ago

I wrote last week that the Ebor meeting couldn’t come soon enough after a couple of domestic weekends light on quality and it didn’t disappoint despite the best efforts of the weather to intervene.

Attendance over the week was up three per cent compared to the previous year, while across the four days the average field size was well into double figures, a welcome counter to the dismal field sizes that have plagued numerous meetings this summer (August is still not over and already this year there have been ten two-runner races on the Flat, the largest number since 2019 when there were thirteen and comfortably the second highest this century).

Besides some unfathomable handicaps, close and wide-margin finishes were also on display in the Group races with the combined winning distance in the Juddmonte International (a head) and the Yorkshire Oaks (a short head) the smallest in the same year since 2000, while the seven-and-a-half length margin in the Strensall Stakes was the largest by a significant margin since the races was first staged, though even that winning distance wasn’t among the six largest on the Flat last week, another reminder of the uncompetitive action elsewhere.

Sakhee, Frankel, Baaeed, Mishriff and Ombudsman are the five horses who have won the International by the widest margins this century and Ombudsman was back again to defend the crown he took in 2025 by three-and-a-half lengths. Since then, he’s become the highest Timeform-rated performer in Europe following his Prince of Wales's demolition at Royal Ascot, but on ground softer than in 2025, and probably unsuitably so, he slumped to fourth place behind the Dante winner Item who was winning for the third time on the Knavesmire having also taken the Sky Bet York Stakes back in July.

That day Item had taken a while to hit top stride after being the first off the bridle, and did so again here, albeit some of that was trouble related, denied a run two furlongs out and then taking time to get organised again before finding plenty to lead on the line, worth a bit more than the winning margin all things considered.

A 125 timefigure is the ninth best in the race this century, and his strength at the finish at the end of it again bodes well for a return to a mile and a half, potentially a better three-year-old at that trip than either Derby winner Christmas Day (Epsom the only race Item has flopped in so far) or Irish Derby winner Benvenuto Cellini.

Almaqam once again confirmed himself a high-class and often underappreciated horse, posting the third timefigure of his career above 120 yet allowed to go off at 14/1. Constitution River posted 117, just below his Eclipse effort and 7lb below his Dee Stakes win and surely remains capable of better at some point given he ran far too freely for the first two furlongs; perhaps that will be in the Irish Champion Stakes for which he is currently joint favourite with Almaqam.

The aforementioned Christmas Day showed up in the Great Voltigeur as had the 2025 Derby winner Lambourn before him, and like him too was unable to follow up his Epsom win, beaten into third place by two horses who had finished behind him at Epsom, Maltese Cross and Pierre Bonnard. The winning timefigure wasn’t anything special – just 108 – but a slow finish was a consequence of the field getting racing a fair way out in rain-softened conditions after rank outsider Antigua had taken the field along.

Maltese Cross’ best timefigure remains the 113 he posted in the Derby, but he looks a top-class prospect capable of a lot higher when the occasion demands it, not least given he’s an outstanding type physically whose form has already advanced 10lb or so since Epsom where he arrived less experienced then either Christmas Day or Pierre Bonnard.

He was rightly made favourite for the St Leger afterwards but unsurprisingly will skip that race reportedly and boost the field for the Arc instead.

The other Group race on the card was the Acomb Stakes and went to Haffner in a 106 timefigure. The only runner to have been placed in Group company and the pick on looks, he barely had to improve, if at all, on what he'd achieved in the Vintage but doesn’t look yet up to some of the Group 1s he will undoubtedly contest in the autumn.

Kalpana can be marked up significantly

Fillies took centre stage on day two and the finish to the Yorkshire Oaks was even closer than the International the preceding day at the conclusion of a compelling race that saw pacemaker Sugar Island ignored by the others and build up a very big lead which she hung on to until almost the final furlong.

Kalpana’s timefigure in a race that was run in a slower time than the following Listed Galtres Stakes over the same distance was an ordinary 94 unsurprisingly, but it’s probably not a race to take at face value, Kalpana needing to do some hard running out of the pack to haul back the leader and those fractions leaving her to be shot at once she'd worked her way to the front, almost caught by the strong-staying Irish Oaks third Sparan Nua who had been ridden far more efficiently.

Nothing went right for Kalpana in the Arc last year and she’ll go there with leading claims. Sparan Nua was well served by the demands of the soft-ground test (very odd that she had been brought back to a mile last time) and she may yet have more to offer with the emphasis on stamina. Minnie Hauk confirmed that she's not quite the same filly this year with everything set up for her, while Johanna Walsh and Legacy Link both ran underwhelmingly, particularly the latter whose Oaks form looks worse by the day.

Kalpana’s stable also landed the Galtres with Prizeland whose 101 timefigure is 6lb below the performance rating Timeform gave her. In the biggest field for the race in more than a decade, Prizeland showed improved form on a surface her fluent action had suggested might not suit, taking advantage of a pace collapse ahead of her. The two juvenile races that kicked off the card, the Sky Bet Lowther Stakes and the Half Million by Goffs, were both won by fillies who had already scored in pattern company this season.

The Lowther went to Libertango who was the pick on form but was sent off second favourite, overcoming a potentially tricky draw in the process to score in 103 even before a 9lb sectional upgrade makes her worth 112, a performance right up there with what the best two-year-old filles have produced this season.

One of those fillies is Sun Goddess who she beat in the Albany but has since landed the Phoenix Stakes, form on which she stood out a mile in the Harry's Half Million By Goffs sales race. It wasn’t the penalty kick for Sun Goddess it looked, off the bridle a long way out just eleven days on from the Curragh, but she rattled home once pulled widest and passed the post six lengths clear in a 100 timefigure, a sizeable sectional upgrade just taking her past Libertango’s overall timerating. Hopefully they’ll clash again in the Cheveley Park or Moyglare Stud joined by four-length Prix Morny winner Senorita Bonita.

Bacio at cut above the domestic challenge

There was something for fans of sprinters and stayers alike on the Friday with the Nunthorpe and Gimcrack lining up alongside the Lonsdale. The Nunthorpe saw the eagerly-awaited first appearance since Royal Ascot of the highly progressive American-trained Bacio and his presence added plenty of intrigue against a largely domestic field who’d been beating each other all season, and it was no surprise he proved far too good for them with a most impressive display of speed not dissimilar to that he showed in the Palace of Holyroodhouse.

Running to a 119 timefigure there, he improved here to 122, a 1lb sectional upgrade taking that overall timerating to 123, and in terms of international sprinters only the outstanding Ka Ying Rising and Autumn Glow are obviously better than him. The standout in appearance, he achieved what stablemates Acapulco, Lady Aurelia and Golden Pal had failed to do in the race previously, having little issue with softer ground, and he will surely take all the catching in the Breeders' Cup Turf Sprint, a race the runner-up here Starlust had won in the 2024 season at Del Mar.

The Gimcrack went to the tough and unbeaten Arapaho Gold who improved again to come out on top in a 98 timefigure, worth 111 once a 13lb sectional upgrade is applied. That’s a level that ought to win him another race or two, but it’s a long time since the Gimcrack went to anything very smart and nothing behind screamed potential in what overall was probably just a typical running.

With Trawlerman and Sweet William retired in recent weeks, the staying division has a weaker look to it than earlier in the season and it was Al Nayyir who came out on top in the Lonsdale, making the final move in a race that developed into a thorough test of stamina courtesy of the front-running Quickthorn. The winning timefigure wasn’t spectacular, though, just 101, and the runners looked much of a muchness for most of the way.

Juan Hernandez celebrates Bacio's Nunthorpe win

Archivist best Strensall winner this century

Saturday’s card started with the Strensall Stakes and saw an easy win from Archivist running to a level rarely seen at Group 3 level. Although the margins were arguably exaggerated by the strong gallop, his performance was still the best seen in this contest this century, a 118 timefigure the joint best too together with Mondialiste in 2015 and Echo Of Light in 2005.

The second running of the Sky Bet City Of York with Group 1 status lived up to its billing with half the large fourteen-runner field having been successful at least once at the highest level and it provided a welcome winner for Charlie Appleby (who had largely been absent from the meeting all week) in the shape of Notable Speech who was winning at Group or Grade 1 level for the sixth time.

The class act, even in a field as deep as this one, he wasted no time in putting a below-par effort in the Queen Anne behind him, the distance he put between himself and the rest in the final 1f very impressive for all the timefigure wasn’t spectacular, coming in at 103.

Daiquiri Bay won the Sky Bet Ebor in a figure of 107 (third-placed Opportunity returned 112) while the Melrose over the Ebor distance went to Infraad in 102.

Sale Shark downed leading early-season juvenile Adonius in 102 in the Listed Julia Graves, but the runner-up seemed to me to deserve extra credit considering that he was the only one in the frame ridden prominently having raced with bags of enthusiasm.

I wouldn’t bet against him reversing the form in the Flying Childers and giving Rebecca Menzies a first Group winner on the Flat.

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We are committed in our support of safer gambling. Recommended bets are advised to over-18s and we strongly encourage readers to wager only what they can afford to lose.al

If you are concerned about your gambling, please call the National Gambling Helpline / GamCare on 0808 8020 133.

Further support and information can be found at begambleaware.org and gamblingtherapy.org.