Our value-seeking expert has already been among the winners at Royal Ascot this week - log-in for free to check out the latest preview ahead of Thursday's action.
What is Value Bet?
The Value Bet is designed to generate long-term profit by searching for overpriced horses in the feature weekend races and at the big Festivals in the UK and Ireland. Matt's running total since taking over the column in June 2020: +251.31pts to advised stakes/prices.
Value Bet Tips: Thursday June 19
1pt e.w. The Cursor in 3.05 Royal Ascot at 66/1 (William Hill 1/5 1,2,3,4,5) - 50/1 General
1pt win Caspi Star in 3.40 Royal Ascot at 9/1 (General)
1pt e.w. Tribal Nation in 5.00 Royal Ascot at 25/1 General 1/4 1,2,3,4)
1pt win Fifty Nifty in 6.10 Royal Ascot at 20/1 (bet365) - 20/1 General
Move Cursor over Balding outsider
There’s obviously the feature Gold Cup and the Buckingham Palace Stakes to finish with, but Thursday’s Royal Ascot programme is otherwise made up of races confined to two-year-olds and three-year-olds, which makes life very tricky.
We’re dealing with lots of lightly-raced horses open to any amount of improvement in these events and I can only advise caution when it comes to staking on what could be a real minefield of a day.
That said, the three-year-old-only King George V Stakes is a belting handicap and I’m drawn to one at a massive price.
At the top of the market we have Merchant, who galloped two and a half lengths clear of Rahiebb to win at York’s Dante Festival. He’s up 8lb in the weights but it looks form to take very seriously after the second's excellent Queen's Vase run on Wednesday, although it’s worth pointing out that William Haggas’s horse is one of just three of the 19 in here to have already run over the 12-furlong trip.
The other pair are Pantile Warrior and Ammes, but I’m much more concerned with the whole swathe of horses who are bred for this sort of distance and could be about to take their form to new levels altogether now faced with a true test of stamina.
Topping the pile from my point of view is the Andrew Balding-trained THE CURSOR, a son of Frankel whose dam’s side of the pedigree leans heavily towards stamina.
That probably helps explain why The Cursor made his two-year-old debut over 10 furlongs at Newmarket in October last year - sent off just 7/2 but seemingly still too weak and backward to do himself justice.
Roll on five months and the sizeable colt was back in action at Doncaster over the same distance, this time racing prominently and showing a brave attitude in fighting all the way to the line.
Ultimately beaten a neck by Godolphin's Bedouin Prince, who had the nearside rail to assist in the final couple of furlongs, that effort was a much-improved performance and one that reads even better now seeing as the winner has since defied a penalty with an easy win in a Newmarket novice.
Balding normally runs a nice one in that Doncaster maiden and has won it with Bangkok, who went on to be second behind Japan in the King Edward VII the same summer, and Groundbreaker, who was fourth in the Golden Gates Stakes off a mark of 90 here at the Royal meeting.
Bedouin Prince is now rated 100 so The Cursor’s opening mark of 87 looks manageable to say the least, providing we’re happy to strike a line through his next race when last of seven behind Sea Scout in the Blue Riband Trial at Epsom towards the end of April.
It was admittedly quite a disappointing run (attracted some support and went off 15/2), but it simply looked a case of him not taking at all well to the track, racing keenly and looking ill-at-ease on the run down the hill before not faring any better on the adverse camber in the home straight.
They’ve given themselves plenty of time to freshen the horse up and surely Balding had a dozen potential runners for a race like the King George V, so it’s fascinating to see The Cursor is the chosen one. I suspect we’ll see another big improvement, not only at the longer trip but also on this stiffer track which is bound to play more to his strengths.
In addition, stall 18 is a positive on recent evidence as not only did last year’s victor come from that very same box but six of the past 10 winners have been drawn 16 or higher. Only three of the most recent 16 winners have emerged from a single-figure gate.
The only slight downer is that Oisin Murphy, who was in the plate at Epsom, jumps ship for an outside ride on the better-fancied Gunship for James Ferguson, but at the prices I’m definitely not going to let that put me off.
Nation on the attack for O'Brien
The Britannia Stakes is one of those races in which you could easily have six darts and still not find the winner, but there will be worse each-way options than TRIBAL NATION for Joseph O’Brien, who just missed out in this race with Liffey River (renamed Rise Brethren after shipping to Hong Kong) a few years ago.
His sole success to date came on heavy ground in a Galway maiden but I don’t think he needs it testing underfoot and the horse he beat that day, Mississippi River, is a reserve for this event having gone on to win a Navan maiden before posting two good handicap seconds in the spring.
After a comeback run behind French Guineas winner Henri Matisse in a Leopardstown Group 3, Tribal Nation ended up finishing a place behind old rival Mississippi Rover when making his own handicap debut over a mile at Naas last time, but on reflection he wasn’t seen to best effect at all having been anchored in rear early on.
The move he made and ground he ate up from two furlongs out to the line was quite stylish, and he was staying on all the way to the line too which left the distinct impression he’s started out on a tasty enough mark.
I can see him loving the big-field scenario here and – together with the vast majority of them, it must be said – he looks to have been laid out for the race having had the 52 days off since Naas.
Johnston's rising Star to relish Ribblesdale test
Sticking with the Classic generation, I wouldn’t be laying CASPI STAR at current odds in the Ribblesdale and make her a bet at anything north of 7/1.
She won’t be the most exciting filly in the field and has had a handful of starts already but she was just a shell of a racehorse last term, and it definitely can’t be argued that her progress has plateaued following a striking maiden win at Musselburgh and eyecatching effort when third in the Cheshire Oaks last time out.
The race north of the border was lacking in substance in fairness, but it seems to have served as a nice confidence-booster for Charlie Johnston’s daughter of Camelot, and the Chester form is obviously strong as winner Minnie Hauk followed up in the big one at Epsom.
Looking back at the last run again, Caspi Star’s jockey Silvestre De Sousa appeared to have to adopt plan-B right from the outset as his mount missed a beat coming out of the starting stalls. She might have been expected to lead (raced prominently at Musselburgh) but it just wasn’t on after a furlong and she was forced to sit and suffer near the back of the field, two-wide on every bend.
Given the circumstances – it was her first taste at Listed level – Caspi Star ran a really promising race as she had to come even wider on turning for home and stayed on well to be beaten just over two lengths at the line.
She’s going to want every inch of this strongly-run mile and a half and, while she handles cut, I can’t name many Johnston horses who didn’t improve for a bit of proper summer ground.
Fifty to hit back in style
Nothing looks out of line with market expectations in either the Gold Cup or the Hampton Court Stakes so I’ll move on to the Buckingham Palace Stakes in which English Oak does admittedly stand out like a beacon.
He’s either lost his way completely or Ed Walker has pulled of a phenomenal piece of race-planning and campaigning as last year’s winner is back for another crack off just 1lb higher than when hacking up by three lengths 12 months ago.
He’s favourite at the time of writing so I’ll happily wish them luck and let him win at single-figure prices.
Offering a bit more in the way of value, FIFTY NIFTY appeals as one who could bounce straight back to form with Jamie Spencer in for the ride for the first time.
He ran a real stinker at Newmarket on Guineas weekend, the race possibly coming soon enough after his encouraging neck second over the same seven furlongs of the Rowley Mile at the Craven meeting.
Favourite on both occasions, he’s evidently considered a four-year-old ahead of his mark and given the way this race is likely to play out, including lots of early pace among the others drawn in the middle, Fifty Nifty (stall 12) looks worth another chance off the revised mark of 95, still 8lb higher than when winning on good to firm ground on the July Course last August.
Published at 1600 BST on 18/06/25
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