After landing 9/1, 50/1 and 185/1 acca winners earlier in the tournament, Joe Townsend runs through the quarter-final slate to pick out some Trixies and longshot picks.
Football betting tips: World Cup
2pts (total stake) Draw Trixie in Spain-Belgium, Norway-England, Argentina-Switzerland at 54/1 (BetVictor)
1pt (total stake) Penalty shootout Trixie in Spain-Belgium, Norway-England, Argentina-Switzerland at 272/1 (bet365)
1pt Spain vs Belgium to be decided after penalties at 6/1 (bet365)
1pt England vs Norway to be decided after penalties at 11/2 (bet365)
1pt Argentina vs Switzerland to be decided after penalties at 5/1 (General)
Friday, 10 July
Saturday, 11 July
Sunday, 12 July
While it would be perfectly reasonable to think this is a piece purely being written as an excuse to trumpet what was (let’s be honest about it) an outrageously fortunate 185/1 winner, I assure you it is not.
Those draw accas were put up having initially been digging into whether Scotland were worth backing to be knocked out at 11/4 having had a very close look at the final round of group-stage matches.
Fast forward to the quarter-finals and in previewing Argentina’s tie with Switzerland I've again stumbled upon a theory that may very well come to nothing, but in this moment I'm completely convinced by.
France have been the only consistent performers in this tournament so far, looking head and shoulders above the rest. It was no surprise that they made such light work of Morocco, leaving us with three last-eight ties to go, ones that ought to be more competitive.
Historically this is when things tend to get tight.
In the 10 World Cups since 1986, when quarter-finals were re-introduced, there has always been at least one penalty shootout at this stage of the competition.
At Mexico '86 there were three, in 2006 and 2022 there were two, with the other seven tournaments all involving one quarter-final shootout.
Sixteen ties in total (40%) have ended in a DRAW AFTER 90 MINUTES, with a quite remarkable 14 of those (35%) DECIDED AFTER PENALTIES.
With each of the three remaining fixtures - Spain vs Belgium (3/1), Norway vs England (11/4), Argentina vs Switzerland (27/10) - handily priced to end all-square, they are all backed to do so in a DRAW TRIXIE at 54/1.
Given the tendency for matches that end level to ultimately be settled by spot-kicks (85%), then backing all of those be DECIDED AFTER PENALTIES both separately - between 5/1 and 6/1 - and in a 272/1 TRIXIE is also advised.
Being completely honest the best bets here are really focused on the penalty shootout angle, but not all firms make it easy to even find that market in their sportsbook, with how will the tie be decided and match to go to penalties two of the other names given to it.
Some bookies don't even offer the shootout as a single outcome, only providing the option of backing one team or the other to win via those means, although to most of their credit the odds are fair when compared to the either team price.
The other benefit of the draw is that it quite clearly has a far greater chance of winning, regardless of the historical sample size we're looking at.
For any longshot punt such as this we want to be in the race to keep it as fun as possible, so attacking this angle in two very slightly different ways is the best way to go about it. At the stakes advised, we'll break even - or better - if one game goes the distance.
Odds correct 13:45 BST (10/07/26)
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