Football betting tips: World Cup
1.5pts Elliot Anderson 2+ total shots at 23/10 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
2.5pts England to win in 90 minutes at 17/20 (General)
0.5pt England to win and both teams to score at 13/5 (bet365)
1pt Bukayo Saka 1+ assists at 19/5 (Coral, Ladbrokes)
1pt Nico O'Reilly to score anytime at 15/2 (bet365)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score 2+ goals at 125/1 (bet365, BetVictor)
0.5pt O'Reilly to score a header at 20/1 (Betfred)
The Bjørge Lillelien derby is the next stage of England's battle for a second star. Norway await in Miami having conquered Brazil in the round of 16.
The Viking row has become one of the soundtracks of the World Cup so far and while this talented Norwegian outfit have the potential to trouble the Three Lions, I'd be surprised if there's any outcome which leads to the line 'your boys took a hell of a beating' being repeated on the gantry.
England's win at the Azteca has been marked as one of their great World Cup nights. Of course, they went there as favourites in the betting but the way in which the contest played out gave us the impression of a side operating as one unit together battling in the face of adversity.
Confidence will therefore be high in both camps. This is also the stage of the tournament which Thomas Tuchel has repeatedly stated we'd start to see the best of this England group.
Some may find that hard to believe but then his public statements of how their tournament would play out have been correct so far. Build a team who you feel are suited to playing high-quality nations but accept that means a battle to get through the early stages.
It's almost like they've viewed the World Cup as an FA Cup campaign.
While focus will be on the elite striker match-up of Harry Kane vs Erling Haaland, this game could be decided by set-pieces given the two sides' quite similar build in terms of aerial ability, chances created from corners and free-kicks alongside those allowed.
But rather than take the obvious candidates, I'm siding with ELLIOT ANDERSON 2+ TOTAL SHOTS in the game. These don't have to be on target and, of course, there's the added bonus of open play as well.
He'll play two roles when England have a corner. The first of which will see him staying on the edge of the area and any attempted clearances which come his way could then lead to a shot.
The other is an angle I've highlighted before from the Ghana game. With the usual big hitters all attacking one area, Anderson was left as the free man for a deeper ball which allowed him to get a shot away.
He also had one run from the edge of the area but his attempted header failed to trouble the goalkeeper. While it's only been the case in one game so far, I do wonder if England will lean into him being the 'utility' man on dead ball situations once again.
And when the ball is simply in play and it falls to him within distance, he isn't afraid to try his luck should the opportunity to present itself.
One final thing to mention on this selection is that for those backing it with bookmakers who offer some form of super sub offer, this could go one of two ways. You're either seeing a Dan Burn come on if they're narrowly winning or an Eberechi Eze if they're trailing - the latter obviously preferable.
Such was the nature of Norway's win over England in 1981 that Lillelien proclaimed that they were the 'best in the world' because of it. The rise of their national side in the last ten years or so certainly means it now wouldn't be a surprise, but their tournament should come to an end here.
Score prediction: Norway 0-2 England
Norway have done phenomenally well to reach this far in their first World Cup for 28 years, and first major tournament since Euro 2000, but for all the hype over the obvious threat that Erling Haaland poses, ENGLAND offer a far sterner test than any they have faced so far.
A fair bit of luck and some outstanding goalkeeping from Orjan Nyland was needed against an average Brazil before Haaland's heroics clinched the biggest result of Stale Solbakken's six-year spell.
It was not only the case because of its significance in taking Norway to a first ever World Cup quarter-final, but because previously his team had always fallen short against stronger opposition. Being brutally honest, though, modern day Brazil are barely that.
Solbakken made 10 changes for their final group game against France, and Norway were hammered 4-1.
While that result has an enormous caveat against it, in the 24/25 Nations League they were thrashed 5-1 by Austria and in Euro 24 qualifying Spain beat them twice without conceding, including a 3-0 win in Malaga.
Even in friendlies, this year they played Morocco, Switzerland and the Netherlands, and two years ago took on Denmark. They drew with the former two and lost to both the latter.
To help end their 28-year World Cup wait they were fortunate to be drawn in a qualifying group alongside a generationally poor Italy, as well as Estonia, Israel and Moldova, meaning they were never properly challenged.
Thomas Tuchel's side will expose Norway's obvious defensive weaknesses, and we should back an ENGLAND WIN IN 90 MINUTES at 17/20.
Other than in the aforementioned ties with Spain, Norway do tend to find the net so taking ENGLAND TO WIN & BOTH TEAMS TO SCORE also rates a decent bet at 13/5.
The Three Lions haven't looked secure defensively so far, keeping only two clean sheets, with both Croatia and Mexico scoring twice.
Norway are yet to keep an opponent out whatsoever. Not even Iraq.
In a match where goals are expected BUKAYO SAKA is backed to come up trumps again, with his 19/5 price for 1+ ASSISTS advised.
It's been a disrupted tournament for the Arsenal winger and despite not looking at his best he has delivered at key moments, creating a goal off the bench for Marcus Rashford to make the game safe against Croatia, curling in a corner for Jude Bellingham to break the deadlock against Panama and surging forward to lay on Bellingham's opener in the Azteca.
Norway's Andreas Schjelderup (1.5) is the only player still in the tournament averaging higher than Saka's 1.4 assists per 90.
He may have generated only 0.22 expected assists but team-mate Noni Madueke has done plenty of the groundwork for him, and his 1.50 xA shows how effective England have been down their right-hand side.
Score prediction: Norway 1-3 England
There was a slight tweak from Thomas Tuchel against Mexico.
Bellingham played slightly deeper, operating more on the left side of central midfield. In England's other four games, he had more of a free role with less defensive responsibility.
Declan Rice has spent the majority of the World Cup as a left-sided central midfielder but switched to the right at the Azteca, with Anderson in the middle.
It was subtle and it could have been as much a direct consequence of game-state, as it was a conscious tactical change from Tuchel. But nonetheless, it had a knock-on effect on NICO O’REILLY’s role in possession.
The Manchester City man wasn’t invited into midfield when England had the ball, instead he operated as a more traditional left-back, not the full-back/number 10 hybrid we’ve grown to love this summer.
Naturally, this affected his attacking output.
Although playing Norway in Miami is a completely different challenge to the one posed by Mexico at the Azteca - in a tactical and emotional sense - O’Reilly’s role in this Three Lions team may have changed.
It’s also worth noting he’s one of the England players who is a yellow card away from missing the semi-finals through suspension, should England get there. So, you’d assume he’d be one of the first players quickly withdrawn if England do manage to get themselves in a commanding position.
It’s enough to cast serious doubt over my go to Three Lions selections this summer. O’Reilly TO SCORE ANYTIME, TO SCORE 2+ GOALS and TO SCORE A HEADER.
But who’s to say Tuchel won’t revert to a more attack-minded approach?
Norway’s defence is their Achilles heel.
They’ve conceded nine times from an expected goals against (xGA) of 8.1, an xGA tally only Egypt, Iraq, Curacao and Qatar can top. The next closest side left in the competition is Belgium with 6.2 xGA (five goals conceded).
Both the Ivory Coast and France left-backs had two shots from open play against the Vikings and of the quarter-finalists, Norway top the charts for shots conceded from set-pieces (17) and xGA from dead-balls (1.46).
There is a genuine case to be made for O’Reilly to score given his threat from corners and free kicks.
Plus, Tuchel should give him more attacking freedom.
Score prediction: Norway 2-4 England
Odds correct at 16:20 BST (09/07/26)
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