Sporting Life
Chris Dobey (Picture: Taylor Lanning/PDC)
Chris Dobey (Picture: Taylor Lanning/PDC)

World Matchplay 2023: Day six darts predictions, odds, betting tips, accas, order of play & TV times

By Chris Hammer
Darts
Thu July 20, 2023 · 2y ago

The first two quarter-finals of the Betfred World Matchplay take place on Thursday night so here's our match-by-match preview and best bets.

Darts betting tips: World Matchplay day six

2pts Cullen to beat Gurney and hit most 180s at 11/8 (Paddy Power)

1pt Dobey v Aspinall to have 18+ 180s and 4+ 100+ checkouts at 2/1 (Sky Bet)

SL Acca: Cullen and Aspinall both to win and hit most 180s at 5/1 with Sky Bet

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

World Matchplay: Thursday July 20

  • Venue: Winter Gardens, Blackpool
  • TV Coverage: Sky Sports (2000 BST)
  • Format: Quarter-finals, best of 31 legs. Each game must be won by two clear legs, with up to a maximum of five additional legs being played before the sixth additional leg is sudden-death

Joe Cullen (9/4) v Daryl Gurney (1/3)

  • Overall H2H: 15-5 (TV: 3-1)
    2023: 1-0 (TV: 0-0)
  • Seasonal Average:
    Cullen: 95.21
    Gurney: 94.52
  • 180s per leg in 2023:
    Cullen: 0.35
    Gurney: 0.22
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
    Cullen: 38.63%
    Gurney: 34.02%
  • Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
    Cullen: 34.78%
    Gurney: 19.48%

Is the major-contending version of Daryl Gurney back for good?

SuperChin reminded everyone of the qualities that helped him win two TV titles a few seasons ago with an 11-4 thumping of an in-form Gary Anderson, averaging a superb 104 in the process.

And it wasn't as if the Flying Scotsman played too badly either apart from on his doubles - an area in which Gurney excelled with a checkout percentage of 68.8%.

The Northern Irishman's record against Joe Cullen, however, is pretty terrible having lost 15 of their 20 battles. However, the only positive to this statistic is that only one of those meetings happened in 2023.

WHO'S HIT MOST NINE-DART FINISHES?

Perhaps the most important factor in the Rockstar's favour is just how well he battled to defy Gerwyn Price's 100 average and a barrage of 180s in the previous round, winning 13-11 thanks to a sublime 112 checkout in the decisive 24th leg.

Despite a fairly mediocre 94 average, he converted 59.1% of his doubles and that proved to be the difference.

Cullen's 180 hitting is usually significantly superior to Gurney's (0.35 per leg v 0.22 in 2023) and although Gurney found his range against Anderson, the difference in this tournament so far is 0.36 v 0.29.

I fancy Cullen to raise his standards - especially with a less intimidating opponent over a longer format - and I'm just not sure if we've seen enough from Gurney this year to expect him to produce the levels he did on Monday more consistently.

Scoreline prediction: 16-12

Chris Dobey (11/10) v Nathan Aspinall (4/6)

  • Overall H2H: 3-6 (TV: 1-3)
    2023: 1-3 (TV: 1-3)
  • Seasonal Average:
    Dobey: 96.06
    Aspinall: 96.45
  • 180s per leg in 2023:
    Dobey: 0.32
    Aspinall: 0.30
  • Checkout % in 2023 (Stage events only):
    Dobey: 37.21%
    Aspinall: 36.67%
  • Match Treble % (Win, Most 180’s & High Checkout):
    Dobey: 18.48%
    Aspinall: 19.75%

Chris Dobey is responsible for taking out one of the 'big five' having ended Michael Smith's hopes of a World Championship-World Matchplay double in the same year with a pretty commanding performance.

He averaged 98 but the key to his 11-7 victory was his finishing rather than his usual high scoring prowess as he pinned 68.8% of his doubles.

Nathan Aspinall produced a more all-round display to win a hard-fought contest with Danny Noppert 11-9 as he fired in eight 180s, averaged 98 and pinned 41% of his doubles.

TOP FIVE MAJOR DARTS CHAMPIONS

This is as hard to call as they come, especially when you look at all the key statistics above - they are pretty much neck and neck in all of them.

The Asp has won three of their four meetings this year which all came in the Premier League and you can fairly say he's more conditioned for this longer format contest having reached the final of both the Grand Slam of Darts and World Grand Prix last year.

For those reasons I'll give the slight edge to Aspinall but it should be a close game with plenty of 180s. They won't have to exceed their seasonal 180 per leg rates to get close or eclipse 20 maximums and if we roll that up with four or more 100+ checkouts - which isn't a tall order in a lengthy contest - then we have a decent enough price.

Scoreline prediction: 14-16

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