Andy Schooler previews Thursday's action at Wimbledon, as the women's semi-finals take centre stage.
Today's Wimbledon tips: Thursday July 9
1pt Coco Gauff to beat Karolina Muchova at 26/25 (BetMGM)
1pt Linda Noskova to serve the most aces v Marta Kostyuk at 39/20 (BetMGM, Virgin Bet)
Karolina Muchova v Coco Gauff (1330 BST)
It’s probably fair to say that Muchova has been the more impressive of these two in terms of tennis quality so far in the tournament.
She’s lost only one set en route to the semi-finals, that against former champion Barbora Krejcikova, and she took down the in-form Naomi Osaka in pretty ruthless fashion in the last round.
In contrast, Gauff has had to really fight to reach this stage, needing three sets in four of the five rounds to date.
Still, no-one fights harder than the American on the WTA Tour these days and her battling qualities have again ensured she’s been able to overcome deficiencies in her game.
As I’ve written many times before, her forehand breaks down too often, while the second serve is a regular issue – and double faults aplenty have been forthcoming again over the past fortnight.
It is of huge credit to Gauff that she’s been able to progress past the likes of Belinda Bencic and Jessica Pegula despite those problems and you have to think that if she is able to put it all together and eliminate the errors over the next few days, she will have a great chance of lifting the famous Venus Rosewater Dish.
The other good news for her coming into this contest is that she's 6-1 up on Muchova on the head-to-head, five of those wins coming in straight sets, including a 6-1 6-1 thrashing in Miami earlier this year.
However, Muchova did win the most recent encounter, on the Stuttgart clay in April. This will be their first meeting on grass.
The Czech will look to win this with her wide variety of shots – Gauff will likely be denied rhythm with Muchova’s mixing power with delicate drop shots and slices.
However, Gauff has coped with this combination before and with that strong record against Muchova, I’m tempted by her as the outsider.
She finds a way to win and in big matches such as this, that’s a massive factor.
Another 2-1 win for Gauff is at 17/4 but I’ll keep things simple and back the straight win at a shade of odds-against.
In the sub-markets, Gauff’s double-faults line may have been set a tad high at 7.5.
She’s never gone past six in her previous meetings with Noskova and despite her serving struggles in SW19, only one of her five matches has seen her deliver over 7.5 DFs.
Taking the unders has potential.
Marta Kostyuk v Linda Noskova (to follow SF1)
Another tight tussle is expected by the layers here, with Kostyuk a marginal favourite to reach the final.
The Ukrainian star won the pair’s only previous meeting – in Madrid a couple of months ago – while she’s also the only one of the two to have previously experienced a Grand Slam semi-final. That said, her memories from Roland Garros this year aren’t good – she won only four games against eventual champion Mirra Andreeva.
This half of the draw really opened up for these two and both have enjoyed cushy routes to this stage. Arguably Noskova’s was slightly tougher with the Czech having seen off Madison Keys and Elise Mertens – both in straight sets – in the last two rounds.
I should be honest at this point and admit I’ve barely seen either of these two in action at the tournament so far so I’m loathe to get involved too much.
However, there is a possible angle to be gleaned from the data and it comes in the aces markets in which we’ve had plenty of success over the years.
Berlin champion Noskova is the underdog in the ‘most aces’ market but I’m not sure why.
She out-aced Kostyuk 3-2 in what are pretty fast conditions in Madrid, due to the altitude, and she’ll get some help from the surface on her serve here.
Across the tournament so far, Noskova has out-performed her opponent in terms of aces, serving 0.55 per game to Kostyuk’s 0.35. That’s quite a difference but one that isn’t reflected in the market.
Posted 21:35 BST on 08/07/2026
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