Wimbledon tennis betting tips: Daily best bets, previews, picks and analysis

Tennis betting tips: Wimbledon, Sunday July 16

1pt Novak Djokovic to win and both players to win a set at 6/4 (BoyleSports)

1.25pts Novak Djokovic to serve 9+ aces at 10/11 (BoyleSports)

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Carlos Alcaraz v Novak Djokovic (1400 BST)

As has been the case so often over the past 15 years, we have the final the bookies expected in the men’s final of Grand Slam.

And, once again, Novak Djokovic arrives as the favourite, looking to write another chapter in the sport’s history books.

An 8/15 shot, the Serb will equal Roger Federer’s tally of eight Wimbledon titles – and become only the third man to win five in a row – if he beats the latest challenger to his throne, Carlos Alcaraz.

It’s a clash which promises much but that was also the case last month at Roland Garros where the pair met in a highly-anticipated semi-final which finished as something of a damp squib.

After the opening two sets were shared, setting up what those watching thought would be a battle royale, Alcaraz was overcome by cramp and duly won two more games.

Whether the mental baggage from that incident plays any part in this contest remains to be seen but what we do know is that is certainly remains on Alcaraz’s mind.

Speaking after his semi-final demolition of Daniil Medvedev, he said: "I'll try to pull out all nerves, try to enjoy that moment, because probably in the semi-final at the French Open I didn't enjoy at all in the first set."

Vowing to speak to a sports psychologist ahead of the final, he added: "I'll do something different from that match. I'll prepare (for) the match a little bit different from French Open.

"I think I'll be better on Sunday."

The notable difference this time is that instead of being the firm favourite, as he was in Paris, Alcaraz is now the underdog with the market being a complete reversal of the one from the French Open.

That’s down to the surface change with Djokovic having established himself as the grasscourt king a long time ago.

He’s now won 34 consecutive matches at Wimbledon, while on Centre Court it’s more than 10 years since he last suffered defeat.

Such records only serve to harden his already tremendous mental attitude – and sow seeds of doubt in opponents. Alcaraz will need to win this match; Djokovic won’t lose it.

The Spaniard does have the game to do it.

His aggression off the ground was in evidence during his straight-sets wins over Holger Rune and Medvedev in the past two rounds, while it’s hard to pick holes in his volleying.

Alcaraz’s use of the drop shot is also renowned. It was prominent in his semi-final victory, although Djokovic won’t be returning from anywhere as deep as Medvedev did; that was a flawed tactic which completely undermined his chances.

And that’s a nod to the problems Alcaraz faces.

While it would be simply rude to suggest it is easy to look good against Rune and Medvedev, this test is certainly a level or two up from those with Djokovic one of the greatest of all time in both the return of serve and defending categories.

The good news for Alcaraz is that he has proven he can punch holes in the Djokovic defence, albeit on clay.

Take out these two cramp-affected sets and there is very little to separate the pair on the head-to-head.

With the pair’s other meeting having been won in Madrid by Alcaraz on a final-set-break, the set scores have been (Alcaraz first): 7-5 3-6 7-6 7-5 6-7.

Clearly the question here is what difference will the grass make? As the market shows, the switch favours Djokovic.

Yet Alcaraz has done everything asked of him on the green stuff this season, winning at Queen’s before this current run.

His improvement over the past 24 months has been significant and he clearly continues to learn well under the tutelage of coach Juan Carlos Ferrero, himself a former world number one.

I don’t really doubt his ability to live with Djokovic in the rallies but an area I do feel will be key to his chances is on the return of serve and that’s where the problems could lie.

Djokovic has lost serve only three times in the tournament so far – the lowest such figure he’s produced in his 35 runs to a Grand Slam final. That says much about how well he is starting points off.

It was interesting to hear Jannik Sinner’s verdict after Friday’s semi-final when he said: "I felt like he has improved also the serve a little bit. And when he's missing, he's not missing on much. It's always quite close to the lines.

"It is a very tough serve to return because especially first serve is not bouncing high enough. It's quite flat with a little bit of slice and everything."

Alcaraz’s record of breaking Djokovic isn’t great either – even considering those cramping issues, four breaks of serve in seven claycourt sets is a little concerning.

Throw in the proven mental toughness, plus a record which shows Djokovic has won 20 of his last 23 final or semi-final matches at Grand Slams, and I do give him the edge.

However, the fact that Alcaraz has kept things very tight in those previous meetings suggests to me he’s capable of at least taking a set, so for me the best bet on the match outcome is for DJOKOVIC TO WIN AND BOTH PLAYERS TO WIN A SET at a best of 6/4.

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The Djokovic serve is also key to my thinking in the sub-markets.

Over 8.5 aces for the Serb is tempting here, especially given the theory that this will last at least four sets.

He’s hit eight in each of the two previous meetings and the surface switch suggests there should be more here.

Djokovic has also landed this bet in four of his six matches at the tournament so I’m happy to go over the line in a bid to end a profitable tournament for this column on a high.

Posted at 1430 BST on 15/07/23

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