US Open tennis betting tips: Best bets for the women's singles draw

Tennis betting tips: US Open women's singles

1.5pts e.w. Elena Rybakina to win the title at 13/1 (Unibet, BetMGM, Virgin Bet)

0.5pt Linda Noskova to win quarter three at 16/1 (BetVictor)

0.5pt Anna Kalinskaya to win quarter four at 20/1 (Sky Bet)

Sky Bet odds | Paddy Power | Betfair Sportsbook

US Open – women’s singles

• Flushing Meadows, New York, USA (outdoor hard)

I wrote in my preview of the men’s US Open draw about the dominance of the ‘Big Two’, who have ruled the sport over the past two seasons.

There’s also a Big Two on the women’s side with Iga Swiatek and Aryna Sabalenka having been widely considered the world’s best for most of the last three years.

In that period, their dominance of the Slams hasn’t quite been at the levels of Jannik Sinner and Carlos Alcaraz but the fact is they’ve still scooped seven of the last 12 major titles. Apply the hardcourt filter and it’s four of the last six.

It’s therefore no surprise whatsoever to find the pair at the top of the market, vying for favouritism.

Yet the fact that Sabalenka, the defending champion, isn’t the clear jolly says much about her season.

A win-loss record of 50-10 would be impressive for most players but for Sabalenka, it falls short of the standards she has set in the past.

There have still been highs – winning the Miami Open, for example – but it looks as if her 2025 season will be defined by the big-match defeats she’s suffered.

Sabalenka has lost the finals at both the Australian and French Opens, while at Wimbledon she was upset in the semis by Amanda Anisimova.

In several crunch matches, errors have returned to her game and it feels as if the pressure has got to her, just as it used to before her big breakthrough at this level when she won the Australian Open in 2023.

Most worrying for me though was the way she played in Cincinnati where again errors were making regular appearances.

She was fortunate to scrape through against Emma Raducanu early on but Elena Rybakina did get the better of her in convincing fashion in the last eight.

They were not performances of player who looks ready to dismantle a Grand Slam field.

Throw in a tricky-looking draw which could see her face the in-form Leylah Fernandez and Clara Tauson before the quarter-finals, and I’ve no interest in backing Sabalenka this year.

Down in the bottom half is where Swiatek resides in the draw – she is now favourite with several firms.

That represents quite a transformation for the Pole, who went into Wimbledon having failed to win a title of any sort for more than a year.

Her surprise triumph on the grass of SW19 appears to have reignited her campaign and she’s already claimed another crown, winning the big warm-up event in Cincinnati without dropping a set.

That is certainly a good sign heading to New York with the former world number one proving she’s capable of winning on some of the quicker surfaces, not just her favoured clay.

It should also be remembered she has won here in the past – in 2022 – but there’s still something about Swiatek in these conditions that makes me balk at odds of 3/1.

While I do make her the most likely winner, my confidence is her isn’t really high enough to be backing her at that price.

Instead, I’m going to take a chance on ELENA RYBAKINA bridging the gap to the top two.

She was very much being talked about as part of a ‘Big Three’ a couple of years ago when she was Wimbledon champion and scooped up some big titles, including Indian Wells.

Injuries and illness haven’t helped her in that bid to keep pace with Sabalenka and Swiatek but, at her best, she remains a match for anyone.

She’s shown that during the current hardcourt swing, one which has seen her beat Sabalenka and reigning Australian Open champion Madison Keys.

Rybakina had reached the semi-finals of the last three tournaments she’s contested and on each occasion it’s taken the eventual champion to stop her.

Two of those defeats have come in a final-set tie-break and, admittedly, there is a concern that Rybakina has been losing too many close matches of late.

However, a more positive take would suggest she’s not far away from some really big achievements and could easily be arriving at Flushing Meadows with a couple of titles under her belt.

Some will be put off by her poor US Open record but, possessing one of the best serves in the women’s game and having the power to live with the heaviest hitters, Rybakina does, in theory, have the weapons to do well on the faster-than-average Laykold courts here.

She could face Sabalenka again in the last eight and I think, at considerably higher odds, the Kazakh is worth a try.

The second quarter looks very open with Mirra Andreeva a shaky favourite given she’s played only one match (and lost it) since Wimbledon due to an ankle issue.

This section also includes last year’s runner-up Jessica Pegula, but while she came into last year’s tournament flying, this year she’s barely won a match in the warm-up tournaments and an early exit would be no surprise at all.

Perhaps rising star Victoria Mboko can take advantage.

She surged to the Montreal title as a wild card only a few weeks ago but the layers were quick to slash her odds and 28/1 about a player with such limited experience at this level – this will be only her third Grand Slam and first US Open – just isn’t for me.

Frankly, I’m struggling to find a player to back in this section but in Q3 it may be worth a punt on LINDA NOSKOVA.

Again, I feel the principals in this section are shaky with former champion Coco Gauff making the odd decision to switch coach just a few days before the start of the tournament.

She’s long needed someone to sort out her serve, which produces way too many double faults, and hiring biomechanics expert Gavin MacMillan is surely a good ploy in the long term.

Yet expecting it to work so quickly would seem optimistic in the extreme and Gauff simply hasn’t won enough matches of late to suggest she’s a true contender this time around.

Australian Open queen Keys has also struggled to reproduce her Grand Slam-winning form of earlier in the year and while former champion Naomi Osaka recently made the final in Montreal, I couldn’t be backing a player who rarely seems to want to be on the court at all.

Karolina Muchova has made the semis here in each of the last two years but her fitness is always open to question and, again, there aren’t enough recent wins on her record to warrant support.

Therefore a punt on Noskova feels a risk worth taking.

Admittedly, she failed to win a match across Montreal and Cincinnati but there was a run to the final of the smaller tournament in Prague, while she got a couple of convincing wins under her belt in Monterrey this week before heading to New York which will have boosted confidence.

What I like about Noskova is her ability to deliver in the big matches and that’s reflected in her 6-4 hardcourt record against top-20 players. Two of those losses have come in deciding sets against Swiatek.

Finally, if anyone is going to take down Swiatek early in Q4, then perhaps it will be ANNA KALINSKAYA.

The Russian is playing her best tennis of the season at the moment, making the final in Washington and the last eight in Cincinnati, where she took down top-20 stars Amanda Anisimova and Ekaterina Alexandrova.

Kalinskaya did lose to Swiatek in Cincinnati but has beaten the Pole before on a hardcourt, doing so last season in Dubai where she made the final, shortly after reaching the last eight of the Australian Open.

She’s spoken during this hardcourt swing about how “the fast court fits me very well”. Clearly in good form, she may just be able to trouble the favourite should they meet in round three.

Posted at 0945 BST on 23/08/25

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